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SV Meppen v Stuttgart II

SV Meppen

1–1Full time

Stuttgart II

3. Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Hänsch-Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

SV Meppen 1–1 Stuttgart II SV MEPPEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said SV Meppen win~~40%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.871

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.850

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SV Meppen win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF SV Meppen v Stuttgart II
2′Much as we predicted: SV Meppen was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–23–36
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' SV Meppen 0–1 Stuttgart II
15′⚽ GOAL · 16' SV Meppen 0–1 Stuttgart II
22′Jarzinho Malanga scores for Stuttgart II on 15′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–21–62
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' SV Meppen win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Stuttgart II win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was SV Meppen win 17%)
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Niclas Tibor Nadj · SV Meppen
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' SV Meppen 1–1 Stuttgart II · Jarzinho Malanga
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' SV Meppen win: 40% at kick-off, 35% now
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' SV Meppen 1–1 Stuttgart II · Oliver Issa Schmitt (assist Tobias Missner)
45′42′ and it is 1–1: Oliver Issa Schmitt on the scoresheet for SV Meppen. 1–1 · 34–35–31
45′SECOND HALF SV Meppen 1–1 Stuttgart II
46′HALF-TIME SV Meppen 1–1 Stuttgart II
53′SUBSTITUTION · 54' SV Meppen · On: Richard Christian·Meier · Off: Cyrill Akono
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Stuttgart II · On: Julian Lüers · Off: Lauri Lukas Penna
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Stuttgart II · On: Brayann Kenmoe · Off: Tim van der Leij
66′We said SV Meppen at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–50–24
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' SV Meppen win: 40% at kick-off, 26% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Stuttgart II win 24%)
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Brayann Kenmoe · Stuttgart II
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Stuttgart II · On: Enis Redzepi · Off: Oliver Rölke
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Stuttgart II · On: Collin Schramm · Off: Joyeux Masanka Bungi
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' SV Meppen · On: Kasra Ghawilu · Off: Luca Prasse
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' SV Meppen · On: Jona Borsum · Off: Thorben Deters
87′We said SV Meppen at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 1–1 · 5–90–5
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' SV Meppen win: 40% at kick-off, 5% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' SV Meppen · On: Niclas Wessels · Off: Oliver Issa Schmitt
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Stuttgart II · On: Dominik Nothnagel · Off: Jarzinho Malanga
92′SUBSTITUTION · 88' SV Meppen · On: Florian Bahr · Off: Niclas Tibor Nadj
FTFULL TIME SV Meppen 1–1 Stuttgart II
FTSV Meppen 1–1 Stuttgart II · SV Meppen win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

SV Meppen win40%

Draw24%

Stuttgart II win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Hänsch-Arena

Referee · Simon Schreiner

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

SV Meppen

4-4-1-1

44 J. Punt

2 D. Domrose

19 L. Sprekelmeyer

33 S. Rankic

3 T. Missner

31 L. Prasse

40 N. Nadj

6 E. Zehir

7 O. Schmitt

14 T. Deters

9 C. Akono

Coach · Lucas Beniermann

Substitutes

1 · N. Oberbeck

5 · J. Fedl

20 · N. Touglo

39 · F. Bahr

10 · K. Ghawilu

4 · J. Borsum

23 · N. Wessels

13 · R. Meier

11 · S. Engelmann

Stuttgart II

4-2-3-1

1 J. von der Felsen

17 A. Janjic

6 A. Groiss

13 T. Kohler

24 J. Masanka Bungi

10 N. Sessa

31 V. Stange

11 O. Rolke

27 J. Malanga

7 L. Penna

9 T. van der Leij

Coach · Nico Willig

Substitutes

22 · J. Bock

40 · P. Reinhardt

29 · D. Nothnagel

37 · D. Preu

23 · C. Schramm

18 · J. Luers

30 · J. Majchrzak

42 · B. Kenmoe

39 · E. Redzepi

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

SV Meppen

4-4-1-1

44 J. Punt

2 D. Domrose

19 L. Sprekelmeyer

33 S. Rankic

3 T. Missner

31 L. Prasse

40 N. Nadj

6 E. Zehir

7 O. Schmitt

14 T. Deters

9 C. Akono

Coach · Lucas Beniermann

Substitutes

1 · N. Oberbeck

5 · J. Fedl

20 · N. Touglo

39 · F. Bahr

10 · K. Ghawilu

4 · J. Borsum

23 · N. Wessels

13 · R. Meier

11 · S. Engelmann

Stuttgart II

4-2-3-1

1 J. von der Felsen

17 A. Janjic

6 A. Groiss

13 T. Kohler

24 J. Masanka Bungi

10 N. Sessa

31 V. Stange

11 O. Rolke

27 J. Malanga

7 L. Penna

9 T. van der Leij

Coach · Nico Willig

Substitutes

22 · J. Bock

40 · P. Reinhardt

29 · D. Nothnagel

37 · D. Preu

23 · C. Schramm

18 · J. Luers

30 · J. Majchrzak

42 · B. Kenmoe

39 · E. Redzepi

Our number · sv meppen winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

40% The market43%

Us40%

~~Market~~43%

We make SV Meppen a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sv meppen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SV Meppen win	40%	43%	−3
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Stuttgart II win	36%	32%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	63%	65%	−2
Both teams to score	64%	67%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	84%	84%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	41%	45%	−4
SV Meppen or draw	64%	68%	−4
SV Meppen clean sheet	21%	–	–
Stuttgart II clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.4 5.7 4.8 2.5 1 6.1 10.5 7.9 4.2 2 5.4 8.4 6.6 3.5 3 3.1 4.7 3.7 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SV Meppen down, Stuttgart II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,964 3. Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

SV Meppen at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Stuttgart II away: 2.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for SV Meppen, 1.58 for Stuttgart II. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 12:59. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 3. Liga

SV MEPPEN

WWLLLL2–0 · 3–0 · 1–6 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–1

STUTTGART II

LLWLLD1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	7	+12	18
2	FC Viktoria Köln	7	+10	15
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	8	+4	15
4	FC Saarbrücken	7	+7	13
5	Hoffenheim II	7	+6	13
6	Hansa Rostock	7	0	12
7	Preußen Münster	8	−1	12
8	Alemannia Aachen	7	+3	11
9	Waldhof Mannheim	7	+1	10
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	7	−1	10
11	Verl	7	−3	10
12	Fortuna Köln	7	0	9
13	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	7	−3	8
14	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	−4	8
15	Stuttgart II	7	−3	7
16	Würzburger Kickers	7	−4	7
17	SV Meppen	7	−7	6
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	7	−4	5
19	SV Wehen	7	−8	5
20	Havelse	7	−5	4