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SV Meppen v Havelse

SV Meppen
1–1Full time
Havelse

3. Liga · SUN 18 OCT · Hänsch-Arena

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 21:01
SV Meppen 1–1 Havelse SV MEPPEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said SV Meppen win54%
The market said55%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.964
The market’s Brier score0.955

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 35 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said SV Meppen win at 54%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: SV Meppen 54% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–22–25
  3. 1′KICK-OFF SV Meppen v Havelse
  4. 13′We said SV Meppen at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–22–48
  5. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' SV Meppen 0–1 Havelse
  6. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' SV Meppen win: 54% at kick-off, 29% now
  7. 13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Havelse win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was SV Meppen win 29%)
  8. 14′A goal for Havelse on 13′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 29–23–49
  9. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' SV Meppen 1–1 Havelse
  10. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' SV Meppen win: 54% at kick-off, 51% now
  11. 15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' SV Meppen win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Havelse win 25%)
  12. 17′15′: Thorben Deters on the scoresheet for SV Meppen, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 51–24–25
  13. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Eryk Artur Grzywacz · Havelse
  14. 42′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–1 · 45–31–24
  15. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' SV Meppen win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
  16. 45′SECOND HALF SV Meppen 1–1 Havelse
  17. 46′SV Meppen have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 43–33–24
  18. 48′We said SV Meppen at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 1–1 · 42–34–23
  19. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' dennis duah · Havelse
  20. 50′HALF-TIME SV Meppen 1–1 Havelse
  21. 55′We said SV Meppen at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–38–22
  22. 56′12 shots for SV Meppen, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 39–39–22
  23. 57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Jesse Edem Tugbenyo · Havelse
  24. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' SV Meppen · On: Niclas Tibor Nadj · Off: Jonas Fedl
  25. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was SV Meppen win 37%)
  26. 64′We said SV Meppen at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–46–20
  27. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' SV Meppen win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
  28. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Havelse · On: Alexander Guiddir · Off: Robin Velasco
  29. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' SV Meppen · On: Niclas Wessels · Off: Kasra Ghawilu
  30. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Dominique Domrose · SV Meppen
  31. 75′We said SV Meppen at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–60–15
  32. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' SV Meppen win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
  33. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Jannic ehlers · SV Meppen
  34. 78′We said SV Meppen at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 2–1 · 87–12–1
  35. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' SV Meppen 2–1 Havelse
  36. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' SV Meppen win: 54% at kick-off, 87% now
  37. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' SV Meppen win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 12%)
  38. 80′We said SV Meppen at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–70–12
  39. 80′GOAL DISALLOWED · 80' SV Meppen
  40. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' SV Meppen win: 54% at kick-off, 18% now
  41. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 70% (was SV Meppen win 18%)
  42. 81′SV Meppen have had 17 attempts to 6 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 17–73–11
  43. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Havelse · On: Eric Voufack · Off: Kevin Schumacher
  44. 83′We said SV Meppen at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–78–9
  45. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' SV Meppen win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
  46. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Havelse · On: Marc Richter · Off: Yusuf Wardak
  47. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Havelse · On: Ifeanyi David Nduka · Off: Eryk Artur Grzywacz
  48. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' SV Meppen · On: Luca Prasse · Off: Oliver Issa Schmitt
  49. 87′We said SV Meppen at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
  50. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' SV Meppen · On: Simon Engelmann · Off: Jannic ehlers
  51. 92′We said SV Meppen at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
  52. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' SV Meppen win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
  53. 94′22 shots for SV Meppen, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 2–96–1
  54. 95′1–1 at the end. Our 54% on SV Meppen misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  55. FTFULL TIME SV Meppen 1–1 Havelse
  56. FTSV Meppen 1–1 Havelse · SV Meppen win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SV Meppen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SV Meppen 54%, draw 22%, Havelse 25%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on SV Meppen v HavelseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

SV Meppen win54%
Draw22%
Havelse win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueHänsch-Arena

RefereeBen Henry Uhrig

Line-ups

SV Meppen

4-2-3-1

Havelse

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SV Meppen

Havelse

5Days since last match5

Last match: 13 Oct · 3. Liga

Last match: 13 Oct · 3. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
19SV Meppen9−510
20Havelse9−105

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

SV Meppen

4-2-3-1

44 J. Punt

2 D. Domrose

19 L. Sprekelmeyer

33 S. Rankic

3 T. Missner

5 J. Fedl

6 E. Zehir

10 K. Ghawilu

14 T. Deters

7 O. Schmitt

17 J. Ehlers

Coach · Lucas Beniermann

Substitutes

1 · N. Oberbeck

20 · N. Touglo

39 · F. Bahr

4 · J. Borsum

23 · N. Wessels

40 · N. Nadj

11 · S. Engelmann

9 · C. Akono

31 · L. Prasse

Havelse

5-3-2

1 T. Opitz

22 L. Sommer-Deiss

15 D. Duah

8 J. Berger

4 S. Belkahia

10 K. Schumacher

12 E. Grzywacz

33 J. Tugbenyo

28 R. Velasco

11 K. Wriedt

14 Y. Wardak

Coach · Samir Ferchichi

Substitutes

25 · F. Wolter

19 · E. Voufack

3 · M. Lamby

24 · Y. Mausehund

27 · D. Nduka

7 · M. Richter

9 · L. Paldino

23 · R. Muller

20 · A. Guiddir

Our number · sv meppen winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:23 · locked at kick-off
54% The market55%
Us54%
Market55%

We make SV Meppen a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · SV Meppen v Havelse2.12 – 1.39
Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 5 SeptW1 D1 L4 · W0 D2 L4
Table places · points 10 v 519 v 20
The market · SV Meppen win55% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 12 OCT 04:0218 OCT 18:13
Our probability · SV Meppen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
SV Meppen win54%55%−1
Draw22%22%0
Havelse win25%22%+3
Over 2.5 goals68%66%+2
Both teams to score66%65%+1
Over 1.5 goals87%84%+3
Over 3.5 goals46%47%−1
SV Meppen or draw75%78%−3
SV Meppen clean sheet25%––
Havelse clean sheet12%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%
0123450 3.5 3.9 3.0 1 6.1 9.2 6.1 2.8 2 6.7 9.1 6.3 3.0 3 4.7 6.4 4.5 2.1 4 2.5 3.5 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+SV Meppen down, Havelse across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.67
Over 2.55 of 6
Both scored3 of 6
Last meetingsHAV 2–1 SVM · SVM 4–0 HAV · SVM 4–1 HAV · HAV 4–2 SVM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 5 Sept

SV MEPPEN

LLLLDW1–6 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

HAVELSE

LDLLLD1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–5 · 2–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1MSV Duisburg9+1524
2FC Viktoria Köln9+1319
3Rot-Weiß Essen10+518
4FC Saarbrücken10+717
5Hoffenheim II10+516
6Hansa Rostock10−215
7Stuttgart II10−114
8Alemannia Aachen10−114
9FC Ingolstadt 0410−214
10Fortuna Düsseldorf10−214
11Waldhof Mannheim10013
12Preußen Münster10−312
13SV Wehen10−312
14Verl10−412
15SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach10−612
16Würzburger Kickers10−411
17SSV Jahn Regensburg10+110
18Fortuna Köln10−310
19SV Meppen9−510
20Havelse9−105

The competition's standings before kick-off.