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Stuttgart II v Hoffenheim II

Stuttgart II

3–2Full time

Hoffenheim II

3. Liga · TUE 13 OCT · comtech Arena

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 20:46

Stuttgart II 3–2 Hoffenheim II STUTTGART II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stuttgart II win~~40%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.542

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.712

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stuttgart II win at 40%.
0′Little has changed for our model: Stuttgart II 40% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–22–37
1′KICK-OFF Stuttgart II v Hoffenheim II
6′A goal for Stuttgart II on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 63–19–18
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Stuttgart II 1–0 Hoffenheim II
6′⚽ GOAL · 7' Stuttgart II 1–0 Hoffenheim II
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Stuttgart II win: 40% at kick-off, 63% now
8′We said Stuttgart II at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 2–0 · 82–11–7
8′9′ and it is 2–0: Enis Redzepi on the scoresheet for Stuttgart II. 2–0 · 82–11–7
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Stuttgart II 2–0 Hoffenheim II
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Stuttgart II win: 40% at kick-off, 82% now
8′⚽ GOAL · 9' Stuttgart II 2–0 Hoffenheim II · Enis Redzepi
24′We said Stuttgart II at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–0 · 85–10–5
35′We said Stuttgart II at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 2–1 · 66–21–13
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Stuttgart II 2–1 Hoffenheim II · Enis Redzepi
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Stuttgart II win: 40% at kick-off, 66% now
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Stuttgart II 2–1 Hoffenheim II · Leonidas Stergiou
37′Hoffenheim II ahead on 36′ through Leonidas Stergiou. 2–1. 2–1 · 66–21–13
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Blessing Makanda Maleko · Hoffenheim II
45′SECOND HALF Stuttgart II 2–1 Hoffenheim II
53′We said Stuttgart II at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 2–1 · 70–21–9
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Stuttgart II win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
57′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Stuttgart II · On: David Preu · Off: Enis Redzepi Corrected
57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Stuttgart II · On: Nicolás Sessa · Off: Julian Lüers Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Stuttgart II · On: Tim van der Leij · Off: Oliver Rölke Corrected
66′We said Stuttgart II at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–20–5
67′We said Stuttgart II at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 2–2 · 26–49–25
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Stuttgart II 2–2 Hoffenheim II · Leonidas Stergiou
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Tristan Spranger · Hoffenheim II
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Stuttgart II win: 40% at kick-off, 26% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Stuttgart II win 26%)
68′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 26–50–24
68′Tristan Spranger scores for Hoffenheim II on 69′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 26–50–24
68′⚽ GOAL · 69' Stuttgart II 2–2 Hoffenheim II · Tristan Spranger
70′Tristan Spranger scores for Hoffenheim II on 68′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 24–53–23
70′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Lauri Lukas Penna · Stuttgart II
71′We said Stuttgart II at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–54–22
72′Hoffenheim II have had 11.0 attempts to 6.0 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 23–55–22
73′5 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 79–18–3
73′74′ and it is 3–2: Tim van der Leij on the scoresheet for Stuttgart II. 3–2 · 79–18–3
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Stuttgart II 3–2 Hoffenheim II · Tristan Spranger
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Stuttgart II win: 40% at kick-off, 79% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Stuttgart II win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 18%)
73′⚽ GOAL · 74' Stuttgart II 3–2 Hoffenheim II · Tim van der Leij
75′73′ and it is 3–2: Tim van der Leij on the scoresheet for Stuttgart II. 3–2 · 81–17–3
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Stuttgart II win: 40% at kick-off, 81% now
76′We said Stuttgart II at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 3–2 · 81–16–2
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hoffenheim II · On: K. Čížek · Off: Jykese Fields Corrected
80′We said Stuttgart II at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 3–2 · 85–13–1
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Hoffenheim II · On: jakov dedic · Off: Jykese Fields Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Hoffenheim II · On: Maximilian Theuer · Off: Tristan Spranger Corrected
80′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Maximilian Theuer · Hoffenheim II
80′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Diren Dağdeviren · Hoffenheim II
80′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Tiago Poller · Hoffenheim II
81′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Hoffenheim II · On: Alex honajzer · Off: Luis Engelns Corrected
FTFULL TIME Stuttgart II 3–2 Hoffenheim II
FTStuttgart II 3–2 Hoffenheim II · Stuttgart II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

Stuttgart II win40%

Draw23%

Hoffenheim II win37%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 18:00

Venuecomtech Arena

RefereeMax Kluge

Line-ups

Stuttgart II

4-2-3-1

Hoffenheim II

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Stuttgart II

Hoffenheim II

3Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Hoffenheim II	8	+5	13
14	Stuttgart II	8	−3	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Stuttgart II

4-2-3-1

1 J. von der Felsen

45 L. Stergiou

13 T. Kohler

29 D. Nothnagel

24 J. Masanka Bungi

18 J. Luers

31 V. Stange

7 L. Penna

39 E. Redzepi

27 J. Malanga

11 O. Rolke

Coach · Nico Willig

Substitutes

22 · J. Bock

6 · A. Groiss

40 · P. Reinhardt

17 · A. Janjic

37 · D. Preu

4 · M. Herwerth

10 · N. Sessa

30 · J. Majchrzak

9 · T. van der Leij

Hoffenheim II

4-2-3-1

34 N. Biedermann

15 M. Moore

3 S. Dulic

6 V. Lassig

13 T. Spranger

8 D. Dagdeviren

16 L. Engelns

17 B. Makanda

20 T. Poller

10 Y. Zor

11 J. Fields

Coach · Stefan Kleineheismann

Substitutes

27 · T. Trautner

47 · M. Theuer

40 · S. Pistrol

21 · T. Hildmann

44 · M. Ndong-Penda

23 · A. Honajzer

26 · K. Cizek

18 · L. Wagenbach

36 · J. Dedic

Our number · stuttgart ii winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

40% The market32%

Us40%

~~Market~~32%

We make Stuttgart II a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · stuttgart ii win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stuttgart II win	40%	32%	+8
Draw	23%	24%	−2
Hoffenheim II win	37%	44%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	69%	69%	0
Both teams to score	69%	69%	0
Over 1.5 goals	87%	86%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	48%	49%	−1
Stuttgart II or draw	63%	56%	+7
Stuttgart II clean sheet	18%	–	–
Hoffenheim II clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.3 4.5 4.3 2.5 1 4.8 9.3 7.7 4.5 2 4.7 8.1 7.0 4.1 3 2.9 5.0 4.3 2.5 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stuttgart II down, Hoffenheim II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,973 3. Liga matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stuttgart II at home: 2.67 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Hoffenheim II away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Stuttgart II, 1.75 for Hoffenheim II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~STU 1–0 HOF · HOF 1–3 STU

Form · last six in 3. Liga

STUTTGART II

LWLLDD0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 1–1

HOFFENHEIM II

WLDWWL5–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	8	+13	21
2	FC Viktoria Köln	8	+13	18
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	8	+4	15
4	Hansa Rostock	8	+2	15
5	FC Saarbrücken	8	+7	14
6	Hoffenheim II	8	+5	13
7	Waldhof Mannheim	8	+5	13
8	Preußen Münster	8	−1	12
9	Alemannia Aachen	8	0	11
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	8	−1	11
11	Verl	8	−3	11
12	Fortuna Köln	8	0	10
13	SSV Jahn Regensburg	8	+1	8
14	Stuttgart II	8	−3	8
15	FC Ingolstadt 04	8	−6	8
16	SV Wehen	8	−6	8
17	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	8	−7	8
18	Würzburger Kickers	8	−6	7
19	SV Meppen	8	−7	7
20	Havelse	8	−10	4