Stuttgart II v Alemannia Aachen prediction · 3. Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Stuttgart II 1–2 Alemannia Aachen ALEMANNIA AACHEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alemannia Aachen win~~42%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.516

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.466

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alemannia Aachen win at 42%.
2′Much as we predicted: Alemannia Aachen was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 34–24–41
2′KICK-OFF Stuttgart II v Alemannia Aachen
12′We published Alemannia Aachen at 42%. Our model now makes it 66%. 0–1 · 15–19–66
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Stuttgart II 0–1 Alemannia Aachen
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Alemannia Aachen win: 42% at kick-off, 66% now
14′A goal for Alemannia Aachen on 12′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–19–66
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 12–20–68
32′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Stuttgart II · On: Leonidas Stergiou · Off: Luca Jaquez
38′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Lauri Lukas Penna · Stuttgart II
42′We published Alemannia Aachen at 42%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Julian Lüers · Stuttgart II
45′SECOND HALF Stuttgart II 0–1 Alemannia Aachen
46′HALF-TIME Stuttgart II 0–1 Alemannia Aachen
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Stuttgart II · On: Nicolás Sessa · Off: Ameen Al Dakhil
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Stuttgart II · On: Veit Stange · Off: Julian Lüers
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Stuttgart II 1–1 Alemannia Aachen
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Alemannia Aachen win: 42% at kick-off, 34% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Alemannia Aachen win 71%)
51′48′: Oliver Rölke on the scoresheet for Stuttgart II, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 29–38–33
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Stuttgart II 1–2 Alemannia Aachen
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Alemannia Aachen win: 42% at kick-off, 71% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Alemannia Aachen win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 38%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Alemannia Aachen win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Enis Redzepi · Stuttgart II
61′We published Alemannia Aachen at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–2 · 6–20–75
62′Alemannia Aachen ahead on 61′ through Petros Bagkalianis. 1–2. 1–2 · 5–20–75
62′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Lukas Scepanik · Alemannia Aachen
63′Alemannia Aachen ahead on 52′ through Petros Bagkalianis. 1–2. 1–2 · 5–19–75
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Stuttgart II · On: Tim Kohler · Off: Leonidas Stergiou
72′We published Alemannia Aachen at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Alemannia Aachen · On: Justin von der Hitz · Off: Georg Ermolaev
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Stuttgart II · On: Eliot Bujupi · Off: Enis Redzepi
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Alemannia Aachen win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
75′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Mika Schroers · Alemannia Aachen
78′We published Alemannia Aachen at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 1–14–85
83′We published Alemannia Aachen at 42%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Alemannia Aachen win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
89′We published Alemannia Aachen at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Alemannia Aachen · On: Fabio Torsiello · Off: Lukas Scepanik
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Alemannia Aachen · On: Meiko Wäschenbach · Off: Mehdi Loune
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Alemannia Aachen · On: Kacper Koscierski · Off: Mika Schroers
92′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Louis Köster · Alemannia Aachen
93′Full time, 1–2. We called Alemannia Aachen at 42% — that one lands. 1–2 · 0–0–100
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Alemannia Aachen · On: Mika Timothy Hanraths · Off: Louis Köster
FTFULL TIME Stuttgart II 1–2 Alemannia Aachen
FTStuttgart II 1–2 Alemannia Aachen · Alemannia Aachen win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alemannia Aachen are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stuttgart II 34%, draw 24%, Alemannia Aachen 42%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Stuttgart II v Alemannia AachenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Stuttgart II win34%

Draw24%

Alemannia Aachen win42%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 11

Venuecomtech Arena

RefereeSebastian Hilsberg

Line-ups

Stuttgart II

Alemannia Aachen

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stuttgart II

Alemannia Aachen

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · 3. Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Liga

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Stuttgart II	10	−1	14
8	Alemannia Aachen	10	−1	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Stuttgart II

Formation not confirmed

2 A. Al Dakhil

8 Y. Spalt

11 Oliver Rölke

39 E. Redzepi

24 Joyeux Masanka Bungi

18 J. Luers

7 L. Penna

43 L. Jaquez

4 Maximilian Tobias Herwerth

27 Jarzinho Ataide Adriano de Nascimento Malanga

33 M. Funk

Coach · N. Willig

Substitutes

38 · Eliot Bujupi

17 · A. Janjic

13 · Tim Köhler

30 · J. Majchrzak

10 · N. Sessa

31 · V. Stange

45 · L. Stergiou

19 · E. Yigit

1 · Jerik von der Felsen

Alemannia Aachen

Formation not confirmed

37 J. da Silva Kiala

20 Georg Ermolaev

8 L. Köster

4 D. Leonard

10 M. Loune

1 M. Riemann

7 L. Scepanik

27 M. Schröers

3 Matti Wagner

28 D. Wiebe

2 P. Bagalianis

Coach · M. Selimbegovic

Substitutes

30 · Justin-Kai von der Hitz

11 · M. Wäschenbach

17 · F. Torsiello

9 · D. Starodid

29 · K. Koscierski

18 · Ken Izekor

15 · M. Hanraths

19 · N. Bitumazala

23 · S. Bajić

Our number · alemannia aachen winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 12:50 · locked at kick-off

42% The market44%

Us42%

~~Market~~44%

We make Alemannia Aachen a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stuttgart II v Alemannia Aachen~~1.53 – 1.71

~~Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 14~~7 v 8

~~The market · Alemannia Aachen win~~44% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alemannia Aachen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stuttgart II win	34%	31%	+3
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Alemannia Aachen win	42%	44%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	63%	64%	−1
Both teams to score	64%	66%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	84%	83%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	41%	45%	−4
Stuttgart II or draw	58%	56%	+2
Stuttgart II clean sheet	18%	–	–
Alemannia Aachen clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.5 6.3 5.7 3.3 1 5.6 10.6 8.6 4.9 2.1 2 4.6 7.8 6.6 3.8 3 2.4 4.0 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stuttgart II down, Alemannia Aachen across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,994 3. Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stuttgart II at home: 2.83 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Alemannia Aachen away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Stuttgart II, 1.71 for Alemannia Aachen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ALE 3–1 STU · STU 1–3 ALE · STU 2–1 ALE · ALE 2–1 STU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 12 Sept

STUTTGART II

LLDDWW1–2 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–0

ALEMANNIA AACHEN

DLWLLW2–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–5 · 0–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	10	+15	25
2	Rot-Weiß Essen	11	+6	21
3	FC Viktoria Köln	10	+13	20
4	FC Saarbrücken	10	+7	17
5	Hoffenheim II	10	+5	16
6	Hansa Rostock	10	−2	15
7	Stuttgart II	10	−1	14
8	Alemannia Aachen	10	−1	14
9	FC Ingolstadt 04	10	−2	14
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	10	−2	14
11	Waldhof Mannheim	10	0	13
12	Preußen Münster	10	−3	12
13	SV Wehen	10	−3	12
14	Verl	10	−4	12
15	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	10	−6	12
16	Würzburger Kickers	10	−4	11
17	SV Meppen	10	−5	11
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	11	0	10
19	Fortuna Köln	10	−3	10
20	Havelse	10	−10	6