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SSV Jahn Regensburg v Havelse

SSV Jahn Regensburg

5–0Full time

Havelse

3. Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Arena Regensburg

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

SSV Jahn Regensburg 5–0 Havelse SSV JAHN REGENSBURG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SSV Jahn Regensburg win~~58%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.265

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.259

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SSV Jahn Regensburg win at 58%.
1′KICK-OFF SSV Jahn Regensburg v Havelse
2′Much as we predicted: SSV Jahn Regensburg was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–20–22
43′9.0 shots for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 3.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 48–30–22
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' SSV Jahn Regensburg
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' SSV Jahn Regensburg win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' SSV Jahn Regensburg 1–0 Havelse
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' SSV Jahn Regensburg 2–0 Havelse · Nassim Boujellab
46′Nassim Boujellab scores for SSV Jahn Regensburg on 45′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
46′HALF-TIME SSV Jahn Regensburg 2–0 Havelse
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' SSV Jahn Regensburg 2–0 Havelse · Nassim Boujellab
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' SSV Jahn Regensburg 2–0 Havelse · Nassim Boujellab (assist Leopold wurm)
46′SECOND HALF SSV Jahn Regensburg 2–0 Havelse
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' SSV Jahn Regensburg win: 58% at kick-off, 94% now
50′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Havelse · On: Robin Velasco · Off: dennis duah
50′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Havelse · On: Ifeanyi David Nduka · Off: Yannick mausehund
50′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Havelse · On: Eric Voufack · Off: Robin Müller
50′⚽ GOAL · 46' SSV Jahn Regensburg 2–0 Havelse · Nassim Boujellab (assist Leopold wurm)
50′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Leon Sommer · Havelse
50′🟥 RED CARD · 50' Havelse
51′🟥 RED CARD · 51' Ifeanyi David Nduka · Havelse
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' SSV Jahn Regensburg 3–0 Havelse · Nassim Boujellab
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' SSV Jahn Regensburg 3–0 Havelse · Adrian Fein
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Havelse · On: Yusuf Wardak · Off: Semi Belkahia
67′52′ and it is 3–0: Adrian Fein on the scoresheet for SSV Jahn Regensburg. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' SSV Jahn Regensburg win: 58% at kick-off, 100% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' SSV Jahn Regensburg · On: Erik Majetschak · Off: Sascha Hingerl
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' SSV Jahn Regensburg 4–0 Havelse · Adrian Fein
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' SSV Jahn Regensburg 4–0 Havelse · Nassim Boujellab (assist Lucas Hermes)
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' SSV Jahn Regensburg · On: Patrick Hobsch · Off: Nassim Boujellab
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' SSV Jahn Regensburg · On: John Xaver Posselt · Off: Lucas Hermes
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' SSV Jahn Regensburg 5–0 Havelse · Nassim Boujellab
88′Patrick Hobsch scores for SSV Jahn Regensburg on 88′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 88' SSV Jahn Regensburg 5–0 Havelse · Patrick Hobsch (assist Nicolas kisilowski)
FTFULL TIME SSV Jahn Regensburg 5–0 Havelse
FTSSV Jahn Regensburg 5–0 Havelse · SSV Jahn Regensburg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

SSV Jahn Regensburg win58%

Draw20%

Havelse win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Arena Regensburg

Referee · Henry Schroder

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

SSV Jahn Regensburg

3-4-3

1 H. Hermann

37 L. Wurm

5 L. Muhl

31 L. Matzler

25 N. Oliveira

35 S. Hingerl

29 A. Fein

7 O. Schonfelder

8 D. Philipp

27 L. Hermes

10 N. Boujellab

Coach · Sascha Hildmann

Substitutes

23 · M. Schmitt

26 · B. Bauer

13 · E. Majetschak

22 · S. Stolze

21 · Z. Jano

11 · M. Worner

40 · J. Seibold

34 · P. Hobsch

20 · J. Posselt

Havelse

3-4-3

13 O. Hanin

15 D. Duah

4 S. Belkahia

24 Y. Mausehund

22 L. Sommer-Deiss

33 J. Tugbenyo

8 J. Berger

3 M. Lamby

23 R. Muller

20 A. Guiddir

10 K. Schumacher

Coach · Samir Ferchichi

Substitutes

1 · T. Opitz

30 · T. Friedrich

19 · E. Voufack

27 · D. Nduka

7 · M. Richter

14 · Y. Wardak

11 · K. Wriedt

9 · L. Paldino

28 · R. Velasco

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

SSV Jahn Regensburg

3-4-3

1 H. Hermann

37 L. Wurm

5 L. Muhl

31 L. Matzler

25 N. Oliveira

35 S. Hingerl

29 A. Fein

7 O. Schonfelder

8 D. Philipp

27 L. Hermes

10 N. Boujellab

Coach · Sascha Hildmann

Substitutes

23 · M. Schmitt

26 · B. Bauer

13 · E. Majetschak

22 · S. Stolze

21 · Z. Jano

11 · M. Worner

40 · J. Seibold

34 · P. Hobsch

20 · J. Posselt

Havelse

3-4-3

13 O. Hanin

15 D. Duah

4 S. Belkahia

24 Y. Mausehund

22 L. Sommer-Deiss

33 J. Tugbenyo

8 J. Berger

3 M. Lamby

23 R. Muller

20 A. Guiddir

10 K. Schumacher

Coach · Samir Ferchichi

Substitutes

1 · T. Opitz

30 · T. Friedrich

19 · E. Voufack

27 · D. Nduka

7 · M. Richter

14 · Y. Wardak

11 · K. Wriedt

9 · L. Paldino

28 · R. Velasco

Our number · ssv jahn regensburg winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

58% The market58%

Us58%

~~Market~~58%

We make SSV Jahn Regensburg a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 2.3–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ssv jahn regensburg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SSV Jahn Regensburg win	58%	58%	0
Draw	20%	21%	−1
Havelse win	22%	20%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	70%	68%	+2
Both teams to score	66%	64%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	88%	85%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	49%	48%	+2
SSV Jahn Regensburg or draw	78%	80%	−2
SSV Jahn Regensburg clean sheet	26%	–	–
Havelse clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.1 3.3 2.4 1 5.7 8.4 5.5 2.5 2 6.9 9.1 6.1 2.8 3 5.2 6.9 4.7 2.1 4 3.0 4.0 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SSV Jahn Regensburg down, Havelse across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,964 3. Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Havelse away: 0.67 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.29 goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 1.35 for Havelse. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 12:59. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SSV 5–2 HAV · HAV 1–2 SSV

Form · last six in 3. Liga

SSV JAHN REGENSBURG

LLLDLD0–1 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–3

HAVELSE

LWLDLL0–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	7	+12	18
2	FC Viktoria Köln	7	+10	15
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	8	+4	15
4	FC Saarbrücken	7	+7	13
5	Hoffenheim II	7	+6	13
6	Hansa Rostock	7	0	12
7	Preußen Münster	8	−1	12
8	Alemannia Aachen	7	+3	11
9	Waldhof Mannheim	7	+1	10
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	7	−1	10
11	Verl	7	−3	10
12	Fortuna Köln	7	0	9
13	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	7	−3	8
14	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	−4	8
15	Stuttgart II	7	−3	7
16	Würzburger Kickers	7	−4	7
17	SV Meppen	7	−7	6
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	7	−4	5
19	SV Wehen	7	−8	5
20	Havelse	7	−5	4