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SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach v Waldhof Mannheim

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

1–5Full time

Waldhof Mannheim

3. Liga · SAT 10 OCT · comtech Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–5 Waldhof Mannheim SG SONNENHOF GROSSASPACH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win~~42%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.699

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.664

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win at 42%.
0′KICK-OFF SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach v Waldhof Mannheim
2′Much as we predicted: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–33
7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Waldhof Mannheim
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–0 Waldhof Mannheim
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–1 Waldhof Mannheim
11′⚽ GOAL · 12' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–1 Waldhof Mannheim · Luca Damiano Molinari
15′⚽ GOAL · 12' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–1 Waldhof Mannheim · Lovis Frederik Bierschenk
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–2 Waldhof Mannheim · Lovis Frederik Bierschenk
16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Lovis Frederik Bierschenk · Waldhof Mannheim
22′Waldhof Mannheim ahead on 12′ through Lovis Frederik Bierschenk. 1–1. 1–1 · 39–30–31
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–2 Waldhof Mannheim · Lovis Frederik Bierschenk
27′⚽ GOAL · 26' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–2 Waldhof Mannheim · Oluwaseun Ogbemudia
42′Oluwaseun Ogbemudia scores for Waldhof Mannheim on 26′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 11–23–65
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Waldhof Mannheim win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win 11%)
45′We said SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 1–2 · 10–23–66
45′SECOND HALF SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–2 Waldhof Mannheim
49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · On: Lukas Stoppel · Off: Arbnor Nuraj
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Maximilian Thalhammer · Waldhof Mannheim
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Waldhof Mannheim · On: Nolan Xavier Muteba N'Tumba · Off: Lovis Frederik Bierschenk
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Waldhof Mannheim · On: Julian Ulbricht · Off: Gonçalo Gregório
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Waldhof Mannheim · On: Jid Okeke · Off: Diego Michel
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Waldhof Mannheim · On: Noah Joel Sarenren Bazee · Off: Francisco Fumaça de Mascarenhas da Costa Pessoa
66′We said SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 1–2 · 5–20–75
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Fabian Eisele · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · On: Franz Bleicher · Off: Fabian Eisele
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · On: Loris Maier · Off: Tim Rossmann
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–3 Waldhof Mannheim · Oluwaseun Ogbemudia
78′⚽ GOAL · 76' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–3 Waldhof Mannheim · Nolan Xavier Muteba N'Tumba (assist Maximilian Thalhammer)
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–4 Waldhof Mannheim · Nolan Xavier Muteba N'Tumba
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–4 Waldhof Mannheim · Nolan Xavier Muteba N'Tumba
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · On: Mark Gashi · Off: Luca Damiano Molinari
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · On: Nikos Zografakis · Off: Antonis Aidonis
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Waldhof Mannheim · On: Leroy-Jacques Mickels · Off: Owono Darnell Keumo
86′Julian Ulbricht scores for Waldhof Mannheim on 87′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–5 Waldhof Mannheim · Nolan Xavier Muteba N'Tumba
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win: 42% at kick-off, 0% now
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–5 Waldhof Mannheim · Julian Ulbricht (assist Noah Joel Sarenren Bazee)
FTFULL TIME SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–5 Waldhof Mannheim
FTSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–5 Waldhof Mannheim · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win42%

Draw26%

Waldhof Mannheim win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · comtech Arena

Referee · Maximilian Lotz

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

3-5-2

1 M. Reule

15 A. Aidonis

20 L. Maier

25 A. Nuraj

8 E. Rahn

11 T. Rossmann

5 V. Celiktas

16 M. Kunde

21 L. Molinari

23 F. Eisele

18 N. Pollex

Coach · Pascal Reinhardt

Substitutes

33 · T. Schulz

22 · B. Landwehr

19 · M. Uhl

36 · M. Gashi

4 · F. Bleicher

10 · L. Stoppel

6 · C. Mistl

13 · N. Zografakis

27 · L. Maier

Waldhof Mannheim

4-3-3

1 T. Nijhuis

24 L. Klunter

3 M. Polte

14 O. Ogbemudia

17 D. Keumo

21 J. Rieckmann

8 M. Thalhammer

28 D. Michel

7 L. Bierschenk

9 G. Gregorio

11 Masca

Coach · Rui Mota

Substitutes

16 · J. Niemann

4 · T. Sechelmann

15 · C. Kammerknecht

25 · J. Okeke

13 · T. Boyd

23 · L. Mickels

29 · N. Muteba

37 · N. Bazee

10 · J. Ulbricht

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

3-5-2

1 M. Reule

15 A. Aidonis

20 L. Maier

25 A. Nuraj

8 E. Rahn

11 T. Rossmann

5 V. Celiktas

16 M. Kunde

21 L. Molinari

23 F. Eisele

18 N. Pollex

Coach · Pascal Reinhardt

Substitutes

33 · T. Schulz

22 · B. Landwehr

19 · M. Uhl

36 · M. Gashi

4 · F. Bleicher

10 · L. Stoppel

6 · C. Mistl

13 · N. Zografakis

27 · L. Maier

Waldhof Mannheim

4-3-3

1 T. Nijhuis

24 L. Klunter

3 M. Polte

14 O. Ogbemudia

17 D. Keumo

21 J. Rieckmann

8 M. Thalhammer

28 D. Michel

7 L. Bierschenk

9 G. Gregorio

11 Masca

Coach · Rui Mota

Substitutes

16 · J. Niemann

4 · T. Sechelmann

15 · C. Kammerknecht

25 · J. Okeke

13 · T. Boyd

23 · L. Mickels

29 · N. Muteba

37 · N. Bazee

10 · J. Ulbricht

Our number · sg sonnenhof grossaspach winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

42% The market41%

Us42%

~~Market~~41%

We make SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win	42%	41%	+1
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Waldhof Mannheim win	32%	34%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	52%	63%	−11
Both teams to score	56%	65%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	77%	82%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	30%	43%	−13
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach or draw	68%	66%	+2
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach clean sheet	28%	–	–
Waldhof Mannheim clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 6.9 7.6 5.2 2.2 1 8.8 12.3 7.5 3.3 2 6.9 8.7 5.6 2.4 3 3.5 4.4 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach down, Waldhof Mannheim across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,964 3. Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at home: 0.75 scored, 0.75 conceded a game (last 4). Waldhof Mannheim away: 1.67 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, 1.29 for Waldhof Mannheim. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 12:59. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 3. Liga

SG SONNENHOF GROSSASPACH

LLWDDL0–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

WALDHOF MANNHEIM

DLLWLW3–3 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	7	+12	18
2	FC Viktoria Köln	7	+10	15
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	8	+4	15
4	FC Saarbrücken	7	+7	13
5	Hoffenheim II	7	+6	13
6	Hansa Rostock	7	0	12
7	Preußen Münster	8	−1	12
8	Alemannia Aachen	7	+3	11
9	Waldhof Mannheim	7	+1	10
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	7	−1	10
11	Verl	7	−3	10
12	Fortuna Köln	7	0	9
13	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	7	−3	8
14	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	−4	8
15	Stuttgart II	7	−3	7
16	Würzburger Kickers	7	−4	7
17	SV Meppen	7	−7	6
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	7	−4	5
19	SV Wehen	7	−8	5
20	Havelse	7	−5	4