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SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach v Preußen Münster

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

3–2Full time

Preußen Münster

3. Liga · SAT 17 OCT · comtech Arena

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3–2 Preußen Münster PREUSSEN MÜNSTER WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Preußen Münster win~~40%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.639

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.506

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Preußen Münster win at 40%.
2′Much as we predicted: Preußen Münster was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 35–25–40
2′KICK-OFF SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach v Preußen Münster
17′Preußen Münster find the net on 16′. 0–0 · 34–27–39
18′We published Preußen Münster at 40%. Our model now makes it 66%. 0–1 · 15–19–66
18′⚽ GOAL · 16' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0–1 Preußen Münster
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Preußen Münster win: 40% at kick-off, 66% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 13–20–67
33′SUBSTITUTION · 32' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · On: Franz Bleicher · Off: Christian Mistl
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Franz Bleicher · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
41′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Lucas Christopher Zeller · Preußen Münster
45′We published Preußen Münster at 40%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 10–21–70
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Preußen Münster win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
45′HALF-TIME SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0–2 Preußen Münster
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Tim Rossmann · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
46′SECOND HALF SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0–2 Preußen Münster
47′We published Preußen Münster at 40%. Our model now makes it 91%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0–2 Preußen Münster
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Preußen Münster win: 40% at kick-off, 91% now
49′45′: Felix Higl on the scoresheet for Preußen Münster, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
62′We published Preußen Münster at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–2 · 5–20–75
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1–2 Preußen Münster
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Preußen Münster win: 40% at kick-off, 75% now
63′SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach pull one back on 61′ through Tim Rossmann. 1–2. 1–2 · 5–20–75
68′We said Preußen Münster at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 22–54–24
68′Preußen Münster have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 22–54–24
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Preußen Münster · On: Antonio Tikvić · Off: Lucas Christopher Zeller
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Preußen Münster · On: Samuel Moïse Althaus · Off: Charalampos Makridis
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Preußen Münster · On: Montell Ndikom · Off: Joshua Mees
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2–2 Preußen Münster
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Preußen Münster win: 40% at kick-off, 24% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Preußen Münster win 24%)
69′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 22–55–24
70′Fabian Eisele scores for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach on 68′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 21–56–23
71′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Antonio Tikvić · Preußen Münster
71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Preußen Münster · On: Leon Tasov · Off: Wesley Adeh
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Preußen Münster win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
75′We said Preußen Münster at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 18–63–19
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · On: Leon Maier · Off: Tim Rossmann
80′We said Preußen Münster at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 13–73–14
80′We said Preußen Münster at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 3–2 · 86–13–1
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · On: Lukas Stoppel · Off: Franz Bleicher
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3–2 Preußen Münster
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Preußen Münster win: 40% at kick-off, 1% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 13%)
81′GOAL DISALLOWED · 81' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 75% (was SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win 12%)
83′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 89–10–1
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3–2 Preußen Münster
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
84′83′: Fabian Eisele on the scoresheet for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 91–9–1
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Preußen Münster win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · On: Nikos Zografakis · Off: Niklas Pollex
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Preußen Münster · On: Marvin Schulz · Off: Jakob Benjamin Korte
FTFULL TIME SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3–2 Preußen Münster
FTSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3–2 Preußen Münster · Preußen Münster win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Preußen Münster are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 35%, draw 24%, Preußen Münster 40%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach v Preußen MünsterBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win35%

Draw24%

Preußen Münster win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

Venuecomtech Arena

RefereeSimon Schreiner

Line-ups

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

4-2-3-1

Preußen Münster

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

Preußen Münster

3Days since last match3

Last match: 14 Oct · 3. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Preußen Münster	9	−2	12
18	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	9	−7	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

4-2-3-1

1 M. Reule

8 E. Rahn

15 A. Aidonis

25 A. Nuraj

21 L. Molinari

6 C. Mistl

16 M. Kunde

27 L. Maier

18 N. Pollex

11 T. Rossmann

23 F. Eisele

Coach · Pascal Reinhardt

Substitutes

33 · T. Schulz

19 · M. Uhl

20 · L. Maier

36 · M. Gashi

4 · F. Bleicher

10 · L. Stoppel

9 · M. F. Fass

37 · L. Schurer

13 · N. Zografakis

Preußen Münster

5-4-1

1 M. Behrens

2 L. Kolbe

16 T. Paetow

5 L. Zeller

3 T. Dietrich

36 N. Varelmann

14 C. Makridis

27 J. Korte

6 W. Adeh

8 J. Mees

33 F. Higl

Coach · Thomas Worle

Substitutes

38 · M. Harsmann

43 · R. Rosch

29 · L. Tasov

4 · A. Tikvic

21 · R. Preissinger

44 · S. Althaus

28 · M. Ndikom

30 · M. Schulz

19 · M. Demirhan

Our number · preußen münster winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:46 · locked at kick-off

40% The market32%

Us40%

~~Market~~32%

We make Preußen Münster a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach v Preußen Münster~~1.52 – 1.63

~~Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 12~~18 v 10

~~The market · Preußen Münster win~~32% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Preußen Münster win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win	35%	42%	−7
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Preußen Münster win	40%	32%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	61%	60%	+1
Both teams to score	63%	62%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	79%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	39%	39%	0
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach or draw	60%	68%	−8
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach clean sheet	20%	–	–
Preußen Münster clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.0 6.6 5.7 3.1 1 6.2 11.0 8.5 4.6 2 5.0 7.9 6.4 3.5 3 2.5 4.0 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach down, Preußen Münster across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,984 3. Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.0% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at home: 0.80 scored, 1.60 conceded a game (last 5). Preußen Münster away: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, 1.63 for Preußen Münster. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 5 Sept

SG SONNENHOF GROSSASPACH

WDDLLD1–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 2–2

PREUSSEN MÜNSTER

WWDLDL2–1 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	9	+15	24
2	FC Viktoria Köln	9	+13	19
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	9	+6	18
4	Hansa Rostock	9	0	15
5	FC Saarbrücken	9	+5	14
6	Fortuna Düsseldorf	9	0	14
7	Stuttgart II	10	−1	14
8	Hoffenheim II	9	+4	13
9	Waldhof Mannheim	9	+2	13
10	Preußen Münster	9	−2	12
11	Verl	9	−3	12
12	Alemannia Aachen	9	−3	11
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	9	−3	11
14	SV Wehen	9	−3	11
15	Fortuna Köln	10	−3	10
16	SV Meppen	9	−5	10
17	SSV Jahn Regensburg	9	+1	9
18	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	9	−7	9
19	Würzburger Kickers	9	−6	8
20	Havelse	9	−10	5