Rot-Weiß Essen v SSV Jahn Regensburg prediction · 3. Liga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

Rot-Weiß Essen 1–0 SSV Jahn Regensburg ROT-WEISS ESSEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rot-Weiß Essen win~~48%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.410

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.375

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rot-Weiß Essen win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Rot-Weiß Essen 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–29
1′KICK-OFF Rot-Weiß Essen v SSV Jahn Regensburg
15′We said Rot-Weiß Essen at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–17–12
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Rot-Weiß Essen 1–0 SSV Jahn Regensburg
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Rot-Weiß Essen win: 48% at kick-off, 71% now
16′Rot-Weiß Essen find the net on 15′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–17–12
27′SUBSTITUTION · 26' Rot-Weiß Essen · On: Ruben Seyram Reisig · Off: Jaka Cuber Potocnik
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 72–18–10
37′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Jose-Enrique Rios Alonso · Rot-Weiß Essen
45′HALF-TIME Rot-Weiß Essen 1–0 SSV Jahn Regensburg
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' SSV Jahn Regensburg · On: Patrick Hobsch · Off: Leo Mätzler
46′SECOND HALF Rot-Weiß Essen 1–0 SSV Jahn Regensburg
50′We said Rot-Weiß Essen at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
58′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Ruben Seyram Reisig · Rot-Weiß Essen
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Rot-Weiß Essen win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' SSV Jahn Regensburg · On: Zeteny Jano · Off: David Lennart Philipp
67′We said Rot-Weiß Essen at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
69′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Zeteny Jano · SSV Jahn Regensburg
74′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Lucas Brumme · Rot-Weiß Essen
76′We said Rot-Weiß Essen at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Adrian Fein · SSV Jahn Regensburg
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Rot-Weiß Essen · On: Nick Bätzner · Off: Noah Pesch
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Rot-Weiß Essen · On: Jannik Hofmann · Off: Lucas Brumme
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Rot-Weiß Essen win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
82′We said Rot-Weiß Essen at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' SSV Jahn Regensburg · On: John Xaver Posselt · Off: Lucas Hermes
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' SSV Jahn Regensburg · On: Marco Womer · Off: Nassim Boujellab
89′We said Rot-Weiß Essen at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Rot-Weiß Essen · On: Luca Bazzoli · Off: Ekin Celebi
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Rot-Weiß Essen win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME Rot-Weiß Essen 1–0 SSV Jahn Regensburg
FTRot-Weiß Essen 1–0 SSV Jahn Regensburg · Rot-Weiß Essen win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rot-Weiß Essen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rot-Weiß Essen 48%, draw 23%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 29%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Rot-Weiß Essen v SSV Jahn RegensburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Rot-Weiß Essen win48%

Draw23%

SSV Jahn Regensburg win29%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadion Essen

Line-ups

Rot-Weiß Essen

4-2-3-1

SSV Jahn Regensburg

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rot-Weiß Essen

SSV Jahn Regensburg

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Liga

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	10	+5	18
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	10	+1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rot-Weiß Essen

4-2-3-1

1 J. Golz

2 M. Kostka

15 Ben Vincent Hüning

23 J. Ríos Alonso

26 E. Çelebi

22 J. Sietan

11 Noah Pesch

18 D. Abiama

9 J. Potočnik

14 L. Brumme

20 M. Janssen

Coach · U. Koschinat

Substitutes

32 · L. Bazzoli

25 · N. Bätzner

36 · J. Gnagnon

37 · J. Hofmann

40 · Rami Malaeb

16 · R. Reisig

33 · Eric Verstappen

35 · F. Wienand

43 · F Vasic

SSV Jahn Regensburg

3-4-3

1 H. Hermann

37 Leopold Wurm

5 L. Mühl

31 L. Mätzler

25 N. Oliveira

35 S. Hingerl

29 A. Fein

7 O. Schönfelder

8 D. Philipp

27 L. Hermes

10 N. Boujellab

Coach · S. Hildmann

Substitutes

26 · B. Bauer

34 · P. Hobsch

21 · Z. Jánó

44 · M. Karbstein

13 · E. Majetschak

20 · J. Posselt

23 · M. Schmitt

40 · J. Seibold

11 · M. Wörner

Our number · rot-weiß essen winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

48% The market50%

Us48%

~~Market~~50%

We make Rot-Weiß Essen a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rot-Weiß Essen v SSV Jahn Regensburg~~1.86 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 10~~3 v 18

~~The market · Rot-Weiß Essen win~~50% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rot-Weiß Essen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rot-Weiß Essen win	48%	50%	−2
Draw	23%	24%	−1
SSV Jahn Regensburg win	29%	26%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	63%	65%	−2
Both teams to score	64%	65%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	84%	0
Over 3.5 goals	41%	45%	−4
Rot-Weiß Essen or draw	71%	74%	−3
Rot-Weiß Essen clean sheet	25%	–	–
SSV Jahn Regensburg clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.4 4.9 3.8 1 6.7 10.4 6.9 3.3 2 6.6 9.2 6.4 3.0 3 4.1 5.7 4.0 4 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rot-Weiß Essen down, SSV Jahn Regensburg across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,993 3. Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rot-Weiß Essen at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 2.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Rot-Weiß Essen, 1.41 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ROT 3–2 SSV · SSV 1–3 ROT · SSV 1–3 ROT · ROT 0–0 SSV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 12 Sept

ROT-WEISS ESSEN

WWDDWL6–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 0–1

SSV JAHN REGENSBURG

DLDWDD2–2 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 5–0 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	10	+15	25
2	FC Viktoria Köln	10	+13	20
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	10	+5	18
4	FC Saarbrücken	10	+7	17
5	Hoffenheim II	10	+5	16
6	Hansa Rostock	10	−2	15
7	Stuttgart II	10	−1	14
8	Alemannia Aachen	10	−1	14
9	FC Ingolstadt 04	10	−2	14
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	10	−2	14
11	Waldhof Mannheim	10	0	13
12	Preußen Münster	10	−3	12
13	SV Wehen	10	−3	12
14	Verl	10	−4	12
15	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	10	−6	12
16	Würzburger Kickers	10	−4	11
17	SV Meppen	10	−5	11
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	10	+1	10
19	Fortuna Köln	10	−3	10
20	Havelse	10	−10	6