Rot-Weiß Essen v Fortuna Köln prediction · 3. Liga

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 20:46

Rot-Weiß Essen 2–0 Fortuna Köln ROT-WEISS ESSEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rot-Weiß Essen win~~48%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.412

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.213

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rot-Weiß Essen win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Rot-Weiß Essen 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–28
1′KICK-OFF Rot-Weiß Essen v Fortuna Köln
7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Fortuna Köln
20′We said Rot-Weiß Essen at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–18–10
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Rot-Weiß Essen 1–0 Fortuna Köln
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Rot-Weiß Essen win: 48% at kick-off, 72% now
22′⚽ GOAL · 20' Rot-Weiß Essen 1–0 Fortuna Köln · Marek Janssen (assist Marvin Obuz)
23′20′ and it is 1–0: Marek Janssen on the scoresheet for Rot-Weiß Essen. 1–0 · 73–18–10
31′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 73–18–9
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Janne sietan · Rot-Weiß Essen
42′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Uwe Koschinat · Rot-Weiß Essen
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' David Haider Kamm Al-Azzawe · Fortuna Köln
44′We said Rot-Weiß Essen at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
45′HALF-TIME Rot-Weiß Essen 1–0 Fortuna Köln
46′SECOND HALF Rot-Weiß Essen 1–0 Fortuna Köln
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Fortuna Köln · On: Nico Thier · Off: Neo Telle Corrected
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Rot-Weiß Essen win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Fortuna Köln · On: Enzo Wirtz · Off: Jannik Mause Corrected
64′We said Rot-Weiß Essen at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
70′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Marek Janssen · Rot-Weiß Essen
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Rot-Weiß Essen · On: Jaka Cuber Potocnik · Off: Marek Janssen Corrected
74′We said Rot-Weiß Essen at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Rot-Weiß Essen · On: Lucas Brumme · Off: Dickson Abiama Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Fortuna Köln · On: Cedric Harenbrock · Off: Bennit Bröger Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Fortuna Köln · On: Hamadi Al Ghaddioui · Off: Romeo Aigbekaen Corrected
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Rot-Weiß Essen win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
81′We said Rot-Weiß Essen at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Rot-Weiß Essen · On: Aiman Dardari · Off: Marvin Obuz Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Rot-Weiß Essen · On: Ruben Seyram Reisig · Off: Noah Pesch Corrected
82′We said Rot-Weiß Essen at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–0–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Rot-Weiß Essen 2–0 Fortuna Köln · Marek Janssen
83′We said Rot-Weiß Essen at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Rot-Weiß Essen win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Rot-Weiß Essen 2–0 Fortuna Köln · Jaka Cuber Potocnik
85′Rot-Weiß Essen ahead on 84′ through Jaka Cuber Potocnik. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′Rot-Weiß Essen ahead on 82′ through Jaka Cuber Potocnik. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Fortuna Köln · On: Timo Bornemann · Off: Tom Geerkens Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Rot-Weiß Essen · On: Luca Bazzoli · Off: Semir telalovic Corrected
FTFULL TIME Rot-Weiß Essen 2–0 Fortuna Köln
FTRot-Weiß Essen 2–0 Fortuna Köln · Rot-Weiß Essen win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

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The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

Rot-Weiß Essen win48%

Draw25%

Fortuna Köln win28%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 18:00

VenueStadion Essen

RefereeNiclas Rose

Line-ups

Rot-Weiß Essen

4-2-3-1

Fortuna Köln

4-3-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Rot-Weiß Essen

Fortuna Köln

4Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	8	+4	15
12	Fortuna Köln	8	0	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rot-Weiß Essen

4-2-3-1

1 J. Golz

2 M. Kostka

15 B. Huning

23 J. Alonso

19 F. Bouebari

22 J. Sietan

11 N. Pesch

10 M. Obuz

17 S. Telalovic

18 D. Abiama

20 M. Janssen

Coach · Uwe Koschinat

Substitutes

33 · E. Verstappen

35 · F. Wienand

26 · E. Celebi

32 · L. Bazzoli

36 · J. Gnagnon

16 · R. Reisig

9 · J. Potocnik

14 · L. Brumme

7 · A. Dardari

Fortuna Köln

4-3-1-2

1 L. Winkler

31 N. Telle

15 D. Al-Azzawe

5 S. Funger

3 M. Fischer

11 G. Strauch

6 T. Geerkens

20 A. Stanilewicz

38 B. Broger

37 J. Mause

30 R. Aigbekaen

Coach · Matthias Mink

Substitutes

25 · B. Zich

14 · C. Harenbrock

2 · K. Krumme

27 · K. Brechmann

7 · N. Thier

23 · D. Savic

18 · H. Al Ghaddioui

9 · E. Wirtz

19 · T. Bornemann

Our number · rot-weiß essen winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

48% The market62%

Us48%

~~Market~~62%

We make Rot-Weiß Essen a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rot-weiß essen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rot-Weiß Essen win	48%	62%	−15
Draw	25%	21%	+4
Fortuna Köln win	28%	17%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	57%	62%	−4
Both teams to score	59%	57%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	81%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	41%	−6
Rot-Weiß Essen or draw	72%	83%	−11
Rot-Weiß Essen clean sheet	28%	–	–
Fortuna Köln clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.7 5.9 4.1 1 8.2 11.3 6.8 2.9 2 7.4 9.3 5.9 2.5 3 4.3 5.4 3.4 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rot-Weiß Essen down, Fortuna Köln across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,973 3. Liga matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Rot-Weiß Essen at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Fortuna Köln away: 1.75 scored, 1.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Rot-Weiß Essen, 1.27 for Fortuna Köln. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in 3. Liga since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in 3. Liga

ROT-WEISS ESSEN

DWWWDD0–0 · 1–0 · 6–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–3

FORTUNA KÖLN

WDDLWD2–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	8	+13	21
2	FC Viktoria Köln	8	+13	18
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	8	+4	15
4	Hansa Rostock	8	+2	15
5	FC Saarbrücken	8	+7	14
6	Hoffenheim II	8	+5	13
7	Waldhof Mannheim	8	+5	13
8	Preußen Münster	8	−1	12
9	Alemannia Aachen	8	0	11
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	8	−1	11
11	Verl	8	−3	11
12	Fortuna Köln	8	0	10
13	SSV Jahn Regensburg	8	+1	8
14	Stuttgart II	8	−3	8
15	FC Ingolstadt 04	8	−6	8
16	SV Wehen	8	−6	8
17	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	8	−7	8
18	Würzburger Kickers	8	−6	7
19	SV Meppen	8	−7	7
20	Havelse	8	−10	4