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Preußen Münster v Rot-Weiß Essen

Preußen Münster

3–3Full time

Rot-Weiß Essen

3. Liga · FRI 9 OCT · LVM-Preußenstadion

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

Preußen Münster 3–3 Rot-Weiß Essen PREUSSEN MÜNSTER WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Preußen Münster win~~44%

~~The market said~~27%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.896

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.851

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Preußen Münster win at 44%.
29′16′ and it is 1–0: Montell Ndikom on the scoresheet for Preußen Münster. 1–0 · 68–19–12
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Preußen Münster win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
41′We said Preußen Münster at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Preußen Münster 2–0 Rot-Weiß Essen · Montell Ndikom
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Preußen Münster win: 44% at kick-off, 90% now
41′⚽ GOAL · 38' Preußen Münster 2–0 Rot-Weiß Essen · Jose-Enrique Rios Alonso
45′Preußen Münster ahead on 38′ through Jose-Enrique Rios Alonso. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Janne sietan · Rot-Weiß Essen
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Jannik Hofmann · Rot-Weiß Essen
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Montell Ndikom · Preußen Münster
45′HALF-TIME Preußen Münster 2–0 Rot-Weiß Essen
46′SECOND HALF Preußen Münster 2–0 Rot-Weiß Essen
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Preußen Münster 2–1 Rot-Weiß Essen · Jose-Enrique Rios Alonso
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Preußen Münster 2–1 Rot-Weiß Essen · Marek Janssen
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Rot-Weiß Essen · On: Noah Pesch · Off: Ekin Celebi
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Rot-Weiß Essen · On: Dickson Abiama · Off: Marvin Obuz
70′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Niklas Varelmann · Preußen Münster
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Rot-Weiß Essen · On: Michael Kostka · Off: Jannik Hofmann
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Rot-Weiß Essen · On: Aiman Dardari · Off: Lucas Brumme
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Preußen Münster · On: Joshua Mees · Off: Montell Ndikom
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Preußen Münster · On: Louis Philipp Kolbe · Off: Charalampos Makridis
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Preußen Münster 2–2 Rot-Weiß Essen · Marek Janssen
81′⚽ GOAL · 79' Preußen Münster 2–2 Rot-Weiß Essen · Jose-Enrique Rios Alonso (assist Janne sietan)
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Preußen Münster 2–3 Rot-Weiß Essen · Jose-Enrique Rios Alonso
83′⚽ GOAL · 81' Preußen Münster 2–3 Rot-Weiß Essen · Semir telalovic
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Rot-Weiß Essen · On: Ruben Seyram Reisig · Off: Marek Janssen
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Preußen Münster 3–3 Rot-Weiß Essen · Semir telalovic
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Preußen Münster 3–3 Rot-Weiß Essen · Joshua Mees
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Preußen Münster · On: Marvin Schulz · Off: Samuel Moïse Althaus Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Preußen Münster · On: Mikail Demirhan · Off: Romario Rosch Corrected
FTPreußen Münster 3–3 Rot-Weiß Essen · Preußen Münster win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Preußen Münster win44%

Draw23%

Rot-Weiß Essen win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

Venue · LVM-Preußenstadion

Referee · Felix Bickel

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Preußen Münster

3-4-2-1

1 M. Behrens

16 T. Paetow

5 L. Zeller

4 A. Tikvic

43 R. Rosch

26 P. Maier

44 S. Althaus

36 N. Varelmann

14 C. Makridis

28 M. Ndikom

33 F. Higl

Coach · Thomas Worle

Substitutes

38 · M. Harsmann

2 · L. Kolbe

21 · R. Preissinger

27 · J. Korte

6 · W. Adeh

17 · M. Stuhlmacher

8 · J. Mees

30 · M. Schulz

19 · M. Demirhan

Rot-Weiß Essen

4-2-3-1

1 J. Golz

37 J. Hofmann

15 B. Huning

23 J. Alonso

19 F. Bouebari

22 J. Sietan

26 E. Celebi

10 M. Obuz

17 S. Telalovic

14 L. Brumme

20 M. Janssen

Coach · Uwe Koschinat

Substitutes

35 · F. Wienand

32 · L. Bazzoli

2 · M. Kostka

36 · J. Gnagnon

16 · R. Reisig

11 · N. Pesch

9 · J. Potocnik

18 · D. Abiama

7 · A. Dardari

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Preußen Münster

3-4-2-1

1 M. Behrens

16 T. Paetow

5 L. Zeller

4 A. Tikvic

43 R. Rosch

26 P. Maier

44 S. Althaus

36 N. Varelmann

14 C. Makridis

28 M. Ndikom

33 F. Higl

Coach · Thomas Worle

Substitutes

38 · M. Harsmann

2 · L. Kolbe

21 · R. Preissinger

27 · J. Korte

6 · W. Adeh

17 · M. Stuhlmacher

8 · J. Mees

30 · M. Schulz

19 · M. Demirhan

Rot-Weiß Essen

4-2-3-1

1 J. Golz

37 J. Hofmann

15 B. Huning

23 J. Alonso

19 F. Bouebari

22 J. Sietan

26 E. Celebi

10 M. Obuz

17 S. Telalovic

14 L. Brumme

20 M. Janssen

Coach · Uwe Koschinat

Substitutes

35 · F. Wienand

32 · L. Bazzoli

2 · M. Kostka

36 · J. Gnagnon

16 · R. Reisig

11 · N. Pesch

9 · J. Potocnik

18 · D. Abiama

7 · A. Dardari

Our number · preußen münster winPublished 9 Oct 18:04

44% The market27%

Us44%

~~Market~~27%

We make Preußen Münster a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · preußen münster win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 29% to 27% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Preußen Münster win	44%	27%	+16
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Rot-Weiß Essen win	33%	47%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	67%	59%	+8
Both teams to score	67%	61%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	86%	79%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	45%	39%	+7
Preußen Münster or draw	67%	53%	+14
Preußen Münster clean sheet	21%	–	–
Rot-Weiß Essen clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.7 4.8 4.1 2.2 1 5.6 9.7 7.4 3.9 2 5.5 8.5 6.7 3.6 3 3.4 5.3 4.2 2.2 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Preußen Münster down, Rot-Weiß Essen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,963 3. Liga matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.7% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Preußen Münster at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Rot-Weiß Essen away: 1.83 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Preußen Münster, 1.60 for Rot-Weiß Essen. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 17:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PRE 2–1 ROT · ROT 1–0 PRE

Form · last six in 3. Liga

PREUSSEN MÜNSTER

DLWWDL1–1 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 0–2

ROT-WEISS ESSEN

WDWWWD1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 6–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	7	+12	18
2	FC Viktoria Köln	7	+10	15
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	7	+4	14
4	FC Saarbrücken	7	+7	13
5	Hoffenheim II	7	+6	13
6	Hansa Rostock	7	0	12
7	Alemannia Aachen	7	+3	11
8	Preußen Münster	7	−1	11
9	Waldhof Mannheim	7	+1	10
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	7	−1	10
11	Verl	7	−3	10
12	Fortuna Köln	7	0	9
13	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	7	−3	8
14	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	−4	8
15	Stuttgart II	7	−3	7
16	Würzburger Kickers	7	−4	7
17	SV Meppen	7	−7	6
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	7	−4	5
19	SV Wehen	7	−8	5
20	Havelse	7	−5	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Preußen Münster

Rot-Weiß Essen

Match statistics

Line-ups

Preußen Münster

Rot-Weiß Essen

Head to head

Form · last six in 3. Liga

The table