Preußen Münster v Fortuna Köln prediction · 3. Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Preußen MünsterDrawFortuna Köln

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Preußen Münster 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Preußen Münster are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Preußen Münster 46%, draw 25%, Fortuna Köln 29%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Preußen Münster v Fortuna KölnBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Preußen Münster win46%

Draw25%

Fortuna Köln win29%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueLVM-Preußenstadion

RefereeMichael Nather

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Preußen Münster

Fortuna Köln

8Days since last match9

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Liga

Last match: 16 Oct · 3. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Preußen Münster	10	−3	12
19	Fortuna Köln	10	−3	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · preußen münster winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

46% The market43%

Us46%

~~Market~~43%

We make Preußen Münster a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Preußen Münster v Fortuna Köln~~1.67 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 10~~14 v 19

~~The market · Preußen Münster win~~43% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Preußen Münster win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Preußen Münster win	46%	43%	+3
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Fortuna Köln win	29%	30%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	56%	52%	+4
Both teams to score	58%	56%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	75%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	34%	31%	+3
Preußen Münster or draw	71%	70%	+1
Preußen Münster clean sheet	29%	–	–
Fortuna Köln clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.0 6.3 4.3 1 8.4 11.6 7.0 3.0 2 7.4 9.1 5.8 2.5 3 4.1 5.1 3.2 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Preußen Münster down, Fortuna Köln across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,994 3. Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Preußen Münster at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Fortuna Köln away: 1.40 scored, 1.40 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Preußen Münster, 1.27 for Fortuna Köln. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PRE 1–3 FOR · FOR 1–3 PRE · PRE 1–0 FOR · FOR 3–2 PRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 13 Sept

PREUSSEN MÜNSTER

WDLDLL2–1 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 2–3

FORTUNA KÖLN

DLWDLL2–2 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	11	+14	25
2	FC Viktoria Köln	11	+15	23
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	11	+6	21
4	FC Saarbrücken	10	+7	17
5	FC Ingolstadt 04	11	−1	17
6	Hoffenheim II	10	+5	16
7	Hansa Rostock	11	−2	16
8	SV Wehen	11	+3	15
9	Fortuna Düsseldorf	11	−2	15
10	Stuttgart II	10	−1	14
11	SV Meppen	11	−1	14
12	Alemannia Aachen	10	−1	14
13	Waldhof Mannheim	10	0	13
14	Preußen Münster	10	−3	12
15	Verl	11	−6	12
16	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	11	−12	12
17	Würzburger Kickers	11	−8	11
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	11	0	10
19	Fortuna Köln	10	−3	10
20	Havelse	10	−10	6