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Preußen Münster v Fortuna Düsseldorf

Preußen Münster

1–2Full time

Fortuna Düsseldorf

3. Liga · WED 14 OCT · LVM-Preußenstadion

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 20:30

Preußen Münster 1–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf PREUSSEN MÜNSTER WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Preußen Münster win~~47%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.787

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.541

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Preußen Münster win at 47%.
2′Much as we predicted: Preußen Münster was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–29
2′KICK-OFF Preußen Münster v Fortuna Düsseldorf
23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Preußen Münster
24′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Rico Preißinger · Preußen Münster
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Elias Arden · Fortuna Düsseldorf
45′HALF-TIME Preußen Münster 0–0 Fortuna Düsseldorf
46′SECOND HALF Preußen Münster 0–0 Fortuna Düsseldorf
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Fortuna Düsseldorf · On: Marcel Benger · Off: Elias Arden
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Preußen Münster win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
52′We said Preußen Münster at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–40–24
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Preußen Münster win 35%)
53′We published Preußen Münster at 47%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–19–6
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Preußen Münster 1–0 Fortuna Düsseldorf
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Preußen Münster win: 47% at kick-off, 76% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Preußen Münster win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
55′Felix Higl scores for Preußen Münster on 53′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–5
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Preußen Münster win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Fortuna Düsseldorf · On: Steven Van Der Sloot · Off: Matthias Zimmermann
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Fortuna Düsseldorf · On: Eric Hottmann · Off: Fabian Schleusener
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Fortuna Düsseldorf · On: Steven Van Der Sloot · Off: Matthias Zimmermann
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Fortuna Düsseldorf · On: Eric Hottmann · Off: Fabian Schleusener
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Preußen Münster · On: Joshua Mees · Off: Charalampos Makridis
65′We said Preußen Münster at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–51–20
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Preußen Münster 1–1 Fortuna Düsseldorf
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Preußen Münster win: 47% at kick-off, 29% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Preußen Münster win 29%)
66′65′ and it is 1–1: Andreas Müller on the scoresheet for Fortuna Düsseldorf. 1–1 · 28–52–20
67′Fortuna Düsseldorf have had 8.0 attempts to 1.0 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 27–53–19
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Preußen Münster win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
68′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–1 · 26–55–19
69′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Anas Slimani · Fortuna Düsseldorf
69′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Romario Rosch · Preußen Münster
71′We said Preußen Münster at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–58–17
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Preußen Münster · On: Wesley Adeh · Off: Romario Rosch
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Preußen Münster · On: Louis Philipp Kolbe · Off: Samuel Moïse Althaus
77′We said Preußen Münster at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–14
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Preußen Münster win: 47% at kick-off, 16% now
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Fortuna Düsseldorf · On: Yassine Bouchama · Off: Jorrit Hendrix
81′We said Preußen Münster at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–10
84′Fortuna Düsseldorf have had 12.0 attempts to 2.0 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 10–83–7
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Fortuna Düsseldorf · On: Jordi Paulina · Off: Philipp Förster
85′We said Preußen Münster at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
87′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Antonio Tikvić · Preußen Münster
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Preußen Münster · On: M. Stuhlmacher · Off: Felix Higl
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Preußen Münster · On: Marvin Schulz · Off: Montell Ndikom
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Yassine Bouchama · Fortuna Düsseldorf
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Preußen Münster win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
90′We said Preußen Münster at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
90′Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead on 90′ through Eric Hottmann. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–95
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Preußen Münster 1–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf · Andreas Müller
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Fortuna Düsseldorf win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Erik Wekesser · Fortuna Düsseldorf
FTFULL TIME Preußen Münster 1–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf
FTPreußen Münster 1–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf · Preußen Münster win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Preußen Münster v Fortuna DüsseldorfBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

Preußen Münster win47%

Draw25%

Fortuna Düsseldorf win29%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 18:00

VenueLVM-Preußenstadion

RefereeFelix Prigan

Line-ups

Preußen Münster

3-4-3

Fortuna Düsseldorf

4-3-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Preußen Münster

Fortuna Düsseldorf

5Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Preußen Münster	8	-1	12
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	8	-1	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Preußen Münster

3-4-3

1 M. Behrens

16 T. Paetow

5 L. Zeller

4 A. Tikvic

43 R. Rosch

44 S. Althaus

21 R. Preissinger

36 N. Varelmann

28 M. Ndikom

33 F. Higl

14 C. Makridis

Coach · Thomas Worle

Substitutes

38 · M. Harsmann

29 · L. Tasov

2 · L. Kolbe

27 · J. Korte

6 · W. Adeh

17 · M. Stuhlmacher

8 · J. Mees

30 · M. Schulz

19 · M. Demirhan

Fortuna Düsseldorf

4-3-2-1

22 L. Lord

25 M. Zimmermann

15 T. Oberdorf

44 E. Egouli

7 E. Wekesser

6 A. Muller

38 E. Arden

8 J. Hendrix

10 P. Forster

34 A. Slimani

24 F. Schleusener

Coach · Alexander Ende

Substitutes

1 · L. Riess

28 · S. Risch

2 · S. van der Sloot

4 · L. Bornschein

16 · M. Benger

14 · J. Consbruch

5 · Y. Bouchama

27 · J. Paulina

9 · E. Hottmann

Our number · preußen münster winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

47% The market33%

Us47%

~~Market~~33%

We make Preußen Münster a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Preußen Münster v Fortuna Düsseldorf~~1.71 – 1.29

~~Last six in 3. Liga~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 11~~8 v 10

~~The market · Preußen Münster win~~33% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · preußen münster win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Preußen Münster win	47%	33%	+14
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Fortuna Düsseldorf win	29%	40%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	57%	55%	+2
Both teams to score	59%	59%	0
Over 1.5 goals	80%	77%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	35%	34%	+2
Preußen Münster or draw	71%	60%	+11
Preußen Münster clean sheet	28%	–	–
Fortuna Düsseldorf clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.7 6.0 4.2 1 8.1 11.4 7.0 3.0 2 7.2 9.1 5.9 2.6 3 4.1 5.2 3.3 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Preußen Münster down, Fortuna Düsseldorf across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,978 3. Liga matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.9% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Preußen Münster at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 0.75 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Preußen Münster, 1.29 for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in 3. Liga since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in 3. Liga

PREUSSEN MÜNSTER

LWWDLD1–4 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 3–3

FORTUNA DÜSSELDORF

WDWWLD1–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	9	15	24
2	FC Viktoria Köln	8	13	18
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	9	6	18
4	Hansa Rostock	9	0	15
5	FC Saarbrücken	9	5	14
6	Waldhof Mannheim	8	5	13
7	Hoffenheim II	9	4	13
8	Preußen Münster	8	-1	12
9	Alemannia Aachen	8	0	11
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	8	-1	11
11	Stuttgart II	9	-2	11
12	Verl	8	-3	11
13	Fortuna Köln	9	-2	10
14	SV Meppen	9	-5	10
15	SSV Jahn Regensburg	8	1	8
16	Würzburger Kickers	9	-6	8
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	8	-6	8
18	SV Wehen	8	-6	8
19	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	8	-7	8
20	Havelse	9	-10	5