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MSV Duisburg v Hoffenheim II

MSV Duisburg

3–2Full time

Hoffenheim II

3. Liga · SAT 10 OCT · MSV-Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:06

MSV Duisburg 3–2 Hoffenheim II MSV DUISBURG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said MSV Duisburg win~~51%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.357

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.335

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said MSV Duisburg win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: MSV Duisburg 51% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–22–27
1′KICK-OFF MSV Duisburg v Hoffenheim II
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' MSV Duisburg 0–1 Hoffenheim II
25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Diren Dağdeviren · Hoffenheim II
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' MSV Duisburg 0–2 Hoffenheim II · Tobias Fleckstein
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' MSV Duisburg 0–2 Hoffenheim II · Blessing Makanda Maleko (assist Tiago Poller)
43′SUBSTITUTION · 40' Hoffenheim II · On: Matthew moore · Off: Diren Dağdeviren Corrected
45′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Joshua Bitter · MSV Duisburg
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Sean Dulic · Hoffenheim II
45′SECOND HALF MSV Duisburg 0–2 Hoffenheim II
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' MSV Duisburg · On: Ramien Safi · Off: Conor Noss Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' MSV Duisburg · On: Peter Remmert · Off: Martin Ens Corrected
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' MSV Duisburg · On: Frederik Christensen · Off: Can Coskun Corrected
62′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Tiago Poller · Hoffenheim II
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' MSV Duisburg · On: Aljaž Casar · Off: Christian Viet Corrected
69′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Jykese Fields · Hoffenheim II
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Hoffenheim II · On: jakov dedic · Off: Jykese Fields Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Hoffenheim II · On: Lion Wagenbach · Off: Yasin Zor Corrected
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' MSV Duisburg 1–2 Hoffenheim II · Blessing Makanda Maleko
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Lion Wagenbach · Hoffenheim II
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' MSV Duisburg 2–2 Hoffenheim II · Blessing Makanda Maleko
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' MSV Duisburg 2–2 Hoffenheim II · Peter Remmert
74′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Lex-Tyger Lobinger · MSV Duisburg
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' MSV Duisburg 2–2 Hoffenheim II · Peter Remmert
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' MSV Duisburg 3–2 Hoffenheim II · Peter Remmert
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' MSV Duisburg · On: Patrick Sussek · Off: Dominik Kother Corrected
78′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Ramien Safi · MSV Duisburg
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Peter Remmert · MSV Duisburg
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Peter Remmert · MSV Duisburg
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Hoffenheim II · On: Alex honajzer · Off: Tiago Poller Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Hoffenheim II · On: Maximilian Theuer · Off: Tristan Spranger Corrected
FTFULL TIME MSV Duisburg 3–2 Hoffenheim II
FTMSV Duisburg 3–2 Hoffenheim II · MSV Duisburg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

MSV Duisburg win51%

Draw22%

Hoffenheim II win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:30

Venue · MSV-Arena

Referee · Leonidas Exuzidis

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

MSV Duisburg

3-4-3

1 M. Braune

4 M. Ens

5 T. Fleckstein

40 B. Schlicke

29 J. Bitter

10 C. Viet

6 R. Bulic

27 C. Coskun

14 C. Noss

9 L. Lobinger

11 D. Kother

Coach · Dietmar Hirsch

Substitutes

33 · T. Stahl

3 · F. Christensen

20 · N. Jessen

8 · A. Casar

17 · M. Besuschkow

19 · R. Safi

26 · F. Kruger

37 · P. Sussek

39 · P. Remmert

Hoffenheim II

3-4-2-1

1 L. Petersson

8 D. Dagdeviren

3 S. Dulic

6 V. Lassig

2 N. Abraha

20 T. Poller

16 L. Engelns

13 T. Spranger

10 Y. Zor

17 B. Makanda

11 J. Fields

Coach · Stefan Kleineheismann

Substitutes

27 · T. Trautner

47 · M. Theuer

40 · S. Pistrol

44 · M. Ndong-Penda

15 · M. Moore

23 · A. Honajzer

26 · K. Cizek

18 · L. Wagenbach

36 · J. Dedic

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

MSV Duisburg

3-4-3

1 M. Braune

4 M. Ens

5 T. Fleckstein

40 B. Schlicke

29 J. Bitter

10 C. Viet

6 R. Bulic

27 C. Coskun

14 C. Noss

9 L. Lobinger

11 D. Kother

Coach · Dietmar Hirsch

Substitutes

33 · T. Stahl

3 · F. Christensen

20 · N. Jessen

8 · A. Casar

17 · M. Besuschkow

19 · R. Safi

26 · F. Kruger

37 · P. Sussek

39 · P. Remmert

Hoffenheim II

3-4-2-1

1 L. Petersson

8 D. Dagdeviren

3 S. Dulic

6 V. Lassig

2 N. Abraha

20 T. Poller

16 L. Engelns

13 T. Spranger

10 Y. Zor

17 B. Makanda

11 J. Fields

Coach · Stefan Kleineheismann

Substitutes

27 · T. Trautner

47 · M. Theuer

40 · S. Pistrol

44 · M. Ndong-Penda

15 · M. Moore

23 · A. Honajzer

26 · K. Cizek

18 · L. Wagenbach

36 · J. Dedic

Our number · msv duisburg winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

51% The market53%

Us51%

~~Market~~53%

We make MSV Duisburg a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.4.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
MSV Duisburg win	51%	53%	−1
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Hoffenheim II win	26%	24%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	66%	63%	+3
Both teams to score	66%	63%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	82%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	45%	43%	+2
MSV Duisburg or draw	74%	76%	−2
MSV Duisburg clean sheet	25%	–	–
Hoffenheim II clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.7 4.2 3.2 1 6.2 9.5 6.4 3.0 2 6.6 9.2 6.4 3.0 3 4.5 6.2 4.3 2.1 4 2.3 3.2 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+MSV Duisburg down, Hoffenheim II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,964 3. Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

MSV Duisburg at home: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Hoffenheim II away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for MSV Duisburg, 1.41 for Hoffenheim II. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:07. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MSV 3–1 HOF · HOF 4–1 MSV

Form · last six in 3. Liga

MSV DUISBURG

WWWLWW4–2 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 4–1

HOFFENHEIM II

WWLDWW2–0 · 5–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	7	+12	18
2	FC Viktoria Köln	7	+10	15
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	8	+4	15
4	FC Saarbrücken	7	+7	13
5	Hoffenheim II	7	+6	13
6	Hansa Rostock	7	0	12
7	Preußen Münster	8	−1	12
8	Alemannia Aachen	7	+3	11
9	Waldhof Mannheim	7	+1	10
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	7	−1	10
11	Verl	7	−3	10
12	Fortuna Köln	7	0	9
13	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	7	−3	8
14	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	−4	8
15	Stuttgart II	7	−3	7
16	Würzburger Kickers	7	−4	7
17	SV Meppen	7	−7	6
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	7	−4	5
19	SV Wehen	7	−8	5
20	Havelse	7	−5	4