MSV Duisburg v FC Viktoria Köln prediction · 3. Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

MSV Duisburg 1–1 FC Viktoria Köln MSV DUISBURG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said MSV Duisburg win~~45%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.875

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.853

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said MSV Duisburg win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: MSV Duisburg 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
1′KICK-OFF MSV Duisburg v FC Viktoria Köln
28′We said MSV Duisburg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–11
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' MSV Duisburg 1–0 FC Viktoria Köln
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' MSV Duisburg win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
30′Conor Noss scores for MSV Duisburg on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–11
31′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 71–19–10
45′SECOND HALF MSV Duisburg 1–0 FC Viktoria Köln
46′HALF-TIME MSV Duisburg 1–0 FC Viktoria Köln
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Taylan Duman · FC Viktoria Köln
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' niklas jessen · MSV Duisburg
54′We said MSV Duisburg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' MSV Duisburg win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Kilian Jakob · Off: Yannick Aime Tonye
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' MSV Duisburg · On: Ramien Safi · Off: Conor Noss
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' MSV Duisburg · On: Peter Remmert · Off: niklas jessen
68′We said MSV Duisburg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
74′We said MSV Duisburg at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 1–1 · 22–62–17
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' MSV Duisburg 1–1 FC Viktoria Köln
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' MSV Duisburg win: 45% at kick-off, 22% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 62% (was MSV Duisburg win 22%)
75′73′: Taylan Duman on the scoresheet for FC Viktoria Köln, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 21–63–16
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' MSV Duisburg · On: Can Coskun · Off: Frederik Christensen
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' MSV Duisburg · On: Florian Krüger · Off: Dominik Kother
77′We said MSV Duisburg at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–15
80′8 shots for FC Viktoria Köln, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 15–73–12
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' MSV Duisburg win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
81′We said MSV Duisburg at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–75–11
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Jakob Sachse · Off: Niklas Horst Castelle
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Noah Maboulou · Off: David Otto
85′We said MSV Duisburg at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–7
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' MSV Duisburg win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' MSV Duisburg · On: Max Besuschkow · Off: Lex-Tyger Lobinger
92′We said MSV Duisburg at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Niklas Swider · FC Viktoria Köln
95′1–1 at the end. Our 45% on MSV Duisburg misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Rasim Bulic · MSV Duisburg
FTFULL TIME MSV Duisburg 1–1 FC Viktoria Köln
FTMSV Duisburg 1–1 FC Viktoria Köln · MSV Duisburg win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

MSV Duisburg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: MSV Duisburg 45%, draw 24%, FC Viktoria Köln 31%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on MSV Duisburg v FC Viktoria KölnBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

MSV Duisburg win45%

Draw24%

FC Viktoria Köln win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueMSV-Arena

RefereeCristian Ballweg

Line-ups

MSV Duisburg

5-4-1

FC Viktoria Köln

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

MSV Duisburg

FC Viktoria Köln

5Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · 3. Liga

Last match: 14 Oct · 3. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

MSV Duisburg

5-4-1

1 M. Braune

20 N. Jessen

29 J. Bitter

5 T. Fleckstein

40 B. Schlicke

3 F. Christensen

14 C. Noss

8 A. Casar

6 R. Bulic

11 D. Kother

9 L. Lobinger

Coach · Dietmar Hirsch

Substitutes

33 · T. Stahl

4 · M. Ens

27 · C. Coskun

17 · M. Besuschkow

19 · R. Safi

26 · F. Kruger

37 · P. Sussek

39 · P. Remmert

FC Viktoria Köln

3-4-3

1 A. Schulz

19 M. Sponsel

6 T. Eisenhuth

18 T. Kloss

28 P. Fallmann

8 T. Duman

20 N. Swider

7 Y. Tonye

44 N. H. Castelle

10 D. Otto

21 L. M. Wolf

Coach · Marian Wilhelm

Substitutes

12 · D. Wyciok

24 · J. Amann

26 · K. Jakob

11 · E. B. Gueye

22 · V. Boboy

16 · N. Jahn

17 · M. Pledl

9 · J. Sachse

37 · N. Maboulou

Our number · msv duisburg winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:40 · locked at kick-off

45% The market44%

Us45%

~~Market~~44%

We make MSV Duisburg a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · MSV Duisburg v FC Viktoria Köln~~1.75 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 24 v 19~~1 v 2

~~The market · MSV Duisburg win~~44% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · MSV Duisburg win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
MSV Duisburg win	45%	44%	+1
Draw	24%	25%	−1
FC Viktoria Köln win	31%	31%	0
Over 2.5 goals	61%	63%	−2
Both teams to score	63%	65%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	83%	82%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	39%	43%	−4
MSV Duisburg or draw	69%	69%	0
MSV Duisburg clean sheet	25%	–	–
FC Viktoria Köln clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.8 5.6 4.2 2.0 1 7.0 10.8 7.3 3.5 2 6.5 9.0 6.3 3.0 3 3.8 5.3 3.7 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+MSV Duisburg down, FC Viktoria Köln across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,990 3. Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.9% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.38 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

MSV Duisburg at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). FC Viktoria Köln away: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for MSV Duisburg, 1.41 for FC Viktoria Köln. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MSV 1–1 FCV · FCV 0–0 MSV · MSV 1–0 FCV · FCV 2–0 MSV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 5 Sept

MSV DUISBURG

WLWWWW2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 4–2

FC VIKTORIA KÖLN

LWWWWD0–1 · 4–0 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 5–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	9	+15	24
2	FC Viktoria Köln	9	+13	19
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	10	+5	18
4	FC Saarbrücken	10	+7	17
5	Hansa Rostock	10	−2	15
6	Stuttgart II	10	−1	14
7	Alemannia Aachen	10	−1	14
8	FC Ingolstadt 04	10	−2	14
9	Fortuna Düsseldorf	10	−2	14
10	Hoffenheim II	9	+4	13
11	Waldhof Mannheim	10	0	13
12	Preußen Münster	10	−3	12
13	Verl	9	−3	12
14	SV Wehen	10	−3	12
15	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	10	−6	12
16	Würzburger Kickers	10	−4	11
17	SSV Jahn Regensburg	10	+1	10
18	Fortuna Köln	10	−3	10
19	SV Meppen	9	−5	10
20	Havelse	9	−10	5