Hoffenheim II v Verl prediction · 3. Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23

Hoffenheim II 2–1 Verl VERL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Verl win~~41%

~~The market said~~26%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.616

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.368

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Verl win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Verl 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 37–23–41
1′KICK-OFF Hoffenheim II v Verl
6′Hoffenheim II score on 5′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 60–19–21
6′We said Verl at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 1–0 · 60–19–21
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Hoffenheim II 1–0 Verl
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Verl win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Hoffenheim II win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Verl win 21%)
16′We said Verl at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 2–0 · 81–12–8
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Hoffenheim II 2–0 Verl
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Verl win: 41% at kick-off, 8% now
17′Hoffenheim II ahead on 16′ through Yasin Zor. 2–0. 2–0 · 81–12–8
17′Hoffenheim II ahead on 15′ through Yasin Zor. 2–0. 2–0 · 81–12–8
23′We said Verl at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 2–1 · 61–21–18
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Hoffenheim II 2–1 Verl
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Verl win: 41% at kick-off, 18% now
24′Almin mesanovic scores for Verl on 22′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 62–21–18
27′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Natnael Abraha · Hoffenheim II
38′We said Verl at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–1 · 64–22–14
45′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Blessing Makanda Maleko · Hoffenheim II
45′HALF-TIME Hoffenheim II 2–1 Verl
45′SECOND HALF Hoffenheim II 2–1 Verl
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Verl win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Yasin Zor · Hoffenheim II
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Verl · On: Alem Japaur · Off: Joshua Eze
66′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 2–1 · 73–21–6
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Verl · On: M. Kaube · Off: Janne Berner
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Hoffenheim II · On: K. Čížek · Off: Tiago Poller
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Hoffenheim II · On: jakov dedic · Off: Jykese Fields
71′We said Verl at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–20–4
77′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Tim Heike · Verl
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Verl win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Verl · On: Antonio Foti · Off: Fabian Wessig
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Verl · On: Kasim Rabihic · Off: Andre Leipold
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Hoffenheim II · On: Konstantin aleksa · Off: Blessing Makanda Maleko
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Hoffenheim II · On: Diren Dağdeviren · Off: Yasin Zor
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Verl · On: Amin Farouk · Off: Tim Heike
FTFULL TIME Hoffenheim II 2–1 Verl
FTHoffenheim II 2–1 Verl · Verl win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Verl just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Hoffenheim II 37%, draw 23%, Verl 41%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Hoffenheim II v VerlBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hoffenheim II win37%

Draw23%

Verl win41%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueDietmar-Hopp-Stadion

RefereeAssad Nouhoum

Line-ups

Hoffenheim II

4-2-3-1

Verl

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hoffenheim II

Verl

5Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · 3. Liga

Last match: 14 Oct · 3. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Hoffenheim II	9	+4	13
13	Verl	9	−3	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Hoffenheim II

4-2-3-1

1 L. Petersson

2 N. Abraha

3 S. Dulic

47 M. Theuer

13 T. Spranger

16 L. Engelns

5 K. Gjasula

17 B. Makanda

20 T. Poller

10 Y. Zor

11 J. Fields

Coach · Stefan Kleineheismann

Substitutes

32 · T. Philipp

44 · M. Ndong-Penda

8 · D. Dagdeviren

22 · T. Muller

15 · M. Moore

26 · K. Cizek

9 · B. O. Labes

25 · K. Aleksa

36 · J. Dedic

Verl

4-2-3-1

1 T. Schlieck

34 J. Berner

22 N. Konig

5 N. Seidel

19 N. Kijewski

8 D. Waidner

6 J. Eze

30 A. Mesanovic

18 F. Wessig

20 A. Leipold

25 T. Heike

Coach · Orest Shala

Substitutes

32 · F. Pekruhl

14 · P. Lehmann

11 · M. Kaube

26 · A. Foti

7 · A. Farouk

21 · M. Clausen

23 · K. Rabihic

17 · Y. Otto

9 · A. Japaur

Our number · verl winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:40 · locked at kick-off

41% The market26%

Us41%

~~Market~~26%

We make Verl a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hoffenheim II v Verl~~1.75 – 1.85

~~Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 12~~10 v 13

~~The market · Verl win~~26% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Verl win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 26% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hoffenheim II win	37%	50%	−13
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Verl win	41%	26%	+15
Over 2.5 goals	69%	68%	+1
Both teams to score	70%	68%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	88%	85%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	48%	50%	−2
Hoffenheim II or draw	59%	74%	−15
Hoffenheim II clean sheet	16%	–	–
Verl clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.2 4.7 4.7 2.9 1 4.5 9.2 8.1 5.0 2.3 2 4.2 7.7 7.0 4.3 2.0 3 2.5 4.5 4.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hoffenheim II down, Verl across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,990 3. Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.9% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hoffenheim II at home: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Verl away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Hoffenheim II, 1.85 for Verl. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VER 3–1 HOF · HOF 2–4 VER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 5 Sept

HOFFENHEIM II

LDWWLL0–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–3

VERL

WWDWDD1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	9	+15	24
2	FC Viktoria Köln	9	+13	19
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	10	+5	18
4	FC Saarbrücken	10	+7	17
5	Hansa Rostock	10	−2	15
6	Stuttgart II	10	−1	14
7	Alemannia Aachen	10	−1	14
8	FC Ingolstadt 04	10	−2	14
9	Fortuna Düsseldorf	10	−2	14
10	Hoffenheim II	9	+4	13
11	Waldhof Mannheim	10	0	13
12	Preußen Münster	10	−3	12
13	Verl	9	−3	12
14	SV Wehen	10	−3	12
15	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	10	−6	12
16	Würzburger Kickers	10	−4	11
17	SSV Jahn Regensburg	10	+1	10
18	Fortuna Köln	10	−3	10
19	SV Meppen	9	−5	10
20	Havelse	9	−10	5