Havelse v Würzburger Kickers prediction · 3. Liga

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 20:46

Havelse 2–2 Würzburger Kickers WÜRZBURGER KICKERS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Würzburger Kickers win~~40%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.894

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.827

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Würzburger Kickers win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Würzburger Kickers was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 38–22–40
1′KICK-OFF Havelse v Würzburger Kickers
23′We said Würzburger Kickers at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 62–21–17
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Havelse 1–0 Würzburger Kickers
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Würzburger Kickers win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Havelse win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Würzburger Kickers win 17%)
24′24′ and it is 1–0: Kwasi Okyere Wriedt on the scoresheet for Havelse. 1–0 · 62–21–17
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Havelse 1–0 Würzburger Kickers
26′🟥 RED CARD · 26' Havelse
27′A red card for Würzburger Kickers on 27′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 63–21–16
27′🟥 RED CARD · 27' Ebrahim Farahnak · Würzburger Kickers
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 63–21–16
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Kwasi Okyere Wriedt · Havelse
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Havelse 2–0 Würzburger Kickers · Kwasi Okyere Wriedt
35′We said Würzburger Kickers at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 85–10–4
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Würzburger Kickers win: 40% at kick-off, 4% now
35′⚽ GOAL · 36' Havelse 2–0 Würzburger Kickers · Kwasi Okyere Wriedt
37′Havelse ahead on 35′ through Kwasi Okyere Wriedt. 2–0. 2–0 · 86–10–4
37′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Louis Breunig · Würzburger Kickers
45′SECOND HALF Havelse 2–0 Würzburger Kickers
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Würzburger Kickers · On: L. Omore · Off: Franck evina Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Würzburger Kickers · On: Jermain Nischalke · Off: David Kinsombi Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Würzburger Kickers · On: Tim·Kraus · Off: Thomas Kastanaras Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Havelse · On: Eric Voufack · Off: Eryk Artur Grzywacz Corrected
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Jermain Nischalke · Würzburger Kickers
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Kevin Schumacher · Havelse
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Havelse · On: Lorenzo Paldino · Off: Kwasi Okyere Wriedt Corrected
69′Tarsis Bonga scores for Würzburger Kickers on 70′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 75–20–5
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Havelse 2–1 Würzburger Kickers · Nathan De Medina
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Yannick mausehund · Havelse
69′⚽ GOAL · 70' Havelse 2–1 Würzburger Kickers · Tarsis Bonga
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Havelse · On: Marc Richter · Off: Robin Velasco Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Würzburger Kickers · On: Pedro Eliot Narciso Muteba · Off: Luke Hemmerich Corrected
79′90′ and it is 2–1: Jermain Nischalke on the scoresheet for Würzburger Kickers. 2–1 · 84–15–2
79′⚽ GOAL · 92' Havelse 2–1 Würzburger Kickers · Jermain Nischalke
79′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Würzburger Kickers · On: N. Embaye · Off: Xaver Kiefersauer Corrected
FTFULL TIME Havelse 2–1 Würzburger Kickers
FTHavelse 2–2 Würzburger Kickers · Würzburger Kickers win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

Havelse win38%

Draw23%

Würzburger Kickers win40%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 18:00

VenueEilenriedestadion

RefereeLuca Sambill

Line-ups

Havelse

3-5-2

Würzburger Kickers

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Havelse

Würzburger Kickers

3Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
18	Würzburger Kickers	8	−6	7
20	Havelse	8	−10	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Havelse

3-5-2

1 T. Opitz

15 D. Duah

8 J. Berger

24 Y. Mausehund

22 L. Sommer-Deiss

12 E. Grzywacz

33 J. Tugbenyo

28 R. Velasco

10 K. Schumacher

11 K. Wriedt

14 Y. Wardak

Coach · Samir Ferchichi

Substitutes

25 · F. Wolter

30 · T. Friedrich

19 · E. Voufack

21 · I. Behrens

3 · M. Lamby

7 · M. Richter

9 · L. Paldino

23 · R. Muller

20 · A. Guiddir

Würzburger Kickers

4-4-2

33 M. Rajkovacic

21 L. Hemmerich

16 L. Breunig

28 E. Farahnak

4 N. De Medina

37 I. Franjic

27 X. Kiefersauer

8 D. Kinsombi

18 F. Evina

19 T. Kastanaras

30 T. Bonga

Coach · Michael Schiele

Substitutes

1 · J. Hipper

34 · B. Karakaya

5 · L. Eberle

31 · T. Kraus

6 · N. Embaye

13 · P. Ochs

7 · E. Muteba

17 · L. Omore

9 · J. Nischalke

Our number · würzburger kickers winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

40% The market40%

Us40%

~~Market~~40%

We make Würzburger Kickers a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · würzburger kickers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Havelse win	38%	34%	+3
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Würzburger Kickers win	40%	40%	0
Over 2.5 goals	68%	60%	+9
Both teams to score	68%	63%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	87%	80%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	47%	39%	+8
Havelse or draw	60%	60%	0
Havelse clean sheet	17%	–	–
Würzburger Kickers clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.5 4.9 4.7 2.8 1 4.8 9.4 8.0 4.8 2.2 2 4.5 7.8 6.9 4.1 3 2.6 4.5 4.0 2.4 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Havelse down, Würzburger Kickers across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,973 3. Liga matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Havelse at home: 2.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Würzburger Kickers away: 1.50 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Havelse, 1.80 for Würzburger Kickers. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HAV 1–3 FCW · FCW 0–0 HAV

Form · last six in 3. Liga

HAVELSE

WLDLLL3–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–5

WÜRZBURGER KICKERS

LLLWLL0–3 · 1–2 · 2–6 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	8	+13	21
2	FC Viktoria Köln	8	+13	18
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	8	+4	15
4	Hansa Rostock	8	+2	15
5	FC Saarbrücken	8	+7	14
6	Hoffenheim II	8	+5	13
7	Waldhof Mannheim	8	+5	13
8	Preußen Münster	8	−1	12
9	Alemannia Aachen	8	0	11
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	8	−1	11
11	Verl	8	−3	11
12	Fortuna Köln	8	0	10
13	SSV Jahn Regensburg	8	+1	8
14	Stuttgart II	8	−3	8
15	FC Ingolstadt 04	8	−6	8
16	SV Wehen	8	−6	8
17	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	8	−7	8
18	Würzburger Kickers	8	−6	7
19	SV Meppen	8	−7	7
20	Havelse	8	−10	4