Havelse v FC Saarbrücken prediction · 3. Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

HavelseDrawFC Saarbrücken

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · FC Saarbrücken 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Saarbrücken are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Havelse 25%, draw 22%, FC Saarbrücken 53%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Havelse v FC SaarbrückenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Havelse win25%

Draw22%

FC Saarbrücken win53%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueHeinz-von-Heiden-Arena

RefereeMaximilian Lotz

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Havelse

FC Saarbrücken

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	FC Saarbrücken	10	+7	17
20	Havelse	10	−10	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc saarbrücken winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

53% The market57%

Us53%

~~Market~~57%

We make FC Saarbrücken a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Havelse v FC Saarbrücken~~1.42 – 2.12

~~Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 17~~20 v 4

~~The market · FC Saarbrücken win~~57% · ours 53%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Saarbrücken win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Havelse win	25%	21%	+4
Draw	22%	22%	0
FC Saarbrücken win	53%	57%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	68%	67%	+1
Both teams to score	67%	64%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	87%	84%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	47%	48%	−1
Havelse or draw	47%	43%	+4
Havelse clean sheet	12%	–	–
FC Saarbrücken clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.1%

0123450 3.4 5.8 6.5 4.6 2.5 1 3.8 9.1 9.1 6.4 3.4 2 3.0 6.2 6.5 4.5 2.4 3 3.0 3.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Havelse down, FC Saarbrücken across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,000 3. Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Havelse at home: 2.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). FC Saarbrücken away: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Havelse, 2.12 for FC Saarbrücken. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~HAV 2–0 FCS · FCS 1–1 HAV · FCS 2–2 HAV · HAV 0–1 FCS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 12 Sept

HAVELSE

DLLLDD2–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–5 · 2–2 · 1–1

FC SAARBRÜCKEN

LDWDLW0–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–4 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	11	+14	25
2	FC Viktoria Köln	11	+15	23
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	11	+6	21
4	FC Saarbrücken	10	+7	17
5	Alemannia Aachen	11	0	17
6	FC Ingolstadt 04	11	−1	17
7	Hoffenheim II	10	+5	16
8	Hansa Rostock	11	−2	16
9	SV Wehen	11	+3	15
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	11	−2	15
11	SV Meppen	11	−1	14
12	Stuttgart II	11	−2	14
13	Waldhof Mannheim	10	0	13
14	Preußen Münster	10	−3	12
15	Verl	11	−6	12
16	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	11	−12	12
17	Würzburger Kickers	11	−8	11
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	11	0	10
19	Fortuna Köln	10	−3	10
20	Havelse	10	−10	6