Fortuna Köln v Würzburger Kickers prediction · 3. Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Fortuna KölnDrawWürzburger Kickers

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Fortuna Köln 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fortuna Köln are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fortuna Köln 48%, draw 26%, Würzburger Kickers 26%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Fortuna Köln v Würzburger KickersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Fortuna Köln win48%

Draw26%

Würzburger Kickers win26%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fortuna Köln

Würzburger Kickers

15Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · 3. Liga

Last match: 24 Oct · 3. Liga

0Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Würzburger Kickers	11	−8	11
19	Fortuna Köln	10	−3	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fortuna köln winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Fortuna Köln a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fortuna Köln v Würzburger Kickers~~1.63 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 11~~19 v 17

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fortuna Köln win	48%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Würzburger Kickers win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Fortuna Köln or draw	74%	–	–
Fortuna Köln clean sheet	33%	–	–
Würzburger Kickers clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.2 6.7 4.1 1 9.9 12.0 6.4 2.4 2 8.4 9.2 5.2 3 4.6 5.0 2.8 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fortuna Köln down, Würzburger Kickers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,000 3. Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Fortuna Köln at home: 0.20 scored, 0.80 conceded a game (last 5). Würzburger Kickers away: 1.17 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Fortuna Köln, 1.12 for Würzburger Kickers. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 13 Sept

FORTUNA KÖLN

DLWDLL2–2 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–1

WÜRZBURGER KICKERS

WLLDWL1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	11	+14	25
2	FC Viktoria Köln	11	+15	23
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	11	+6	21
4	FC Saarbrücken	10	+7	17
5	Alemannia Aachen	11	0	17
6	FC Ingolstadt 04	11	−1	17
7	Hoffenheim II	10	+5	16
8	Hansa Rostock	11	−2	16
9	SV Wehen	11	+3	15
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	11	−2	15
11	SV Meppen	11	−1	14
12	Stuttgart II	11	−2	14
13	Waldhof Mannheim	10	0	13
14	Preußen Münster	10	−3	12
15	Verl	11	−6	12
16	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	11	−12	12
17	Würzburger Kickers	11	−8	11
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	11	0	10
19	Fortuna Köln	10	−3	10
20	Havelse	10	−10	6