Fortuna Köln v Stuttgart II prediction · 3. Liga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

Fortuna Köln 0–1 Stuttgart II FORTUNA KÖLN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fortuna Köln win~~45%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.766

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.708

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fortuna Köln win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Fortuna Köln 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–24–30
1′KICK-OFF Fortuna Köln v Stuttgart II
45′SECOND HALF Fortuna Köln 0–0 Stuttgart II
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Tim van der Leij · Stuttgart II
46′HALF-TIME Fortuna Köln 0–0 Stuttgart II
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Stuttgart II · On: A. Janjic · Off: Enis Redzepi
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Fortuna Köln win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Fortuna Köln win 35%)
54′We said Fortuna Köln at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–42–24
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 33–43–24
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Jarzinho Malanga · Stuttgart II
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Fortuna Köln · On: Romeo Aigbekaen · Off: Nico Thier
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Fortuna Köln · On: Adrian Stanilewicz · Off: Cedric Harenbrock
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Veit Stange · Stuttgart II
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Joyeux Masanka Bungi · Stuttgart II
62′We said Fortuna Köln at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–22
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Fortuna Köln win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
70′We said Fortuna Köln at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–58–18
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Stuttgart II · On: Jordan Majchrzak · Off: Jarzinho Malanga
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Stuttgart II · On: Maximilian Tobias Herwerth · Off: Veit Stange
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Fortuna Köln · On: Jannik Mause · Off: Enzo Wirtz
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Tom Geerkens · Fortuna Köln
74′🟥 RED CARD · 74' Fortuna Köln
76′Fortuna Köln are down to ten from 75′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 19–67–14
76′We said Fortuna Köln at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–14
79′We said Fortuna Köln at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–1 · 2–14–84
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Fortuna Köln 0–1 Stuttgart II
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Fortuna Köln win: 45% at kick-off, 2% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Stuttgart II win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
81′Stuttgart II ahead on 81′ through Maximilian Tobias Herwerth. 0–1. 0–1 · 1–12–87
81′Stuttgart II ahead on 80′ through Maximilian Tobias Herwerth. 0–1. 0–1 · 1–12–87
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Stuttgart II · On: Oliver Rölke · Off: Tim van der Leij
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' A. Janjic · Stuttgart II
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Fortuna Köln · On: Hamadi Al Ghaddioui · Off: Kevin Krumme
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Stuttgart II · On: Peter Reinhardt · Off: Joyeux Masanka Bungi
94′0–1 at the end. Our 45% on Fortuna Köln misses, and the record keeps it. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Fortuna Köln 0–1 Stuttgart II
FTFortuna Köln 0–1 Stuttgart II · Fortuna Köln win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fortuna Köln are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fortuna Köln 45%, draw 25%, Stuttgart II 29%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Fortuna Köln v Stuttgart IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Fortuna Köln win45%

Draw25%

Stuttgart II win29%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueSüdstadion

RefereeHenry Schroder

Line-ups

Fortuna Köln

4-3-1-2

Stuttgart II

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fortuna Köln

Stuttgart II

3Days since last match3

Last match: 13 Oct · 3. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Stuttgart II	9	−2	11
15	Fortuna Köln	9	−2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Fortuna Köln

4-3-1-2

1 L. Winkler

5 S. Funger

15 D. Al-Azzawe

11 G. Strauch

3 M. Fischer

38 B. Broger

2 K. Krumme

6 T. Geerkens

14 C. Harenbrock

7 N. Thier

9 E. Wirtz

Coach · Matthias Mink

Substitutes

25 · B. Zich

31 · N. Telle

10 · R. Garcia

20 · A. Stanilewicz

23 · D. Savic

18 · H. Al Ghaddioui

30 · R. Aigbekaen

37 · J. Mause

19 · T. Bornemann

Stuttgart II

4-4-2

1 J. von der Felsen

31 V. Stange

6 A. Groiss

29 D. Nothnagel

24 J. Masanka Bungi

7 L. Penna

10 N. Sessa

18 J. Luers

27 J. Malanga

9 T. van der Leij

39 E. Redzepi

Coach · Nico Willig

Substitutes

22 · J. Bock

40 · P. Reinhardt

17 · A. Janjic

37 · D. Preu

4 · M. Herwerth

30 · J. Majchrzak

11 · O. Rolke

Our number · fortuna köln winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 14 Oct 04:40 · locked at kick-off

45% The market42%

Us45%

~~Market~~42%

We make Fortuna Köln a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fortuna Köln v Stuttgart II~~1.64 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 11~~15 v 11

~~The market · Fortuna Köln win~~42% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fortuna Köln win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fortuna Köln win	45%	42%	+3
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Stuttgart II win	29%	32%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	56%	60%	−4
Both teams to score	58%	62%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	79%	80%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	40%	−7
Fortuna Köln or draw	71%	68%	+3
Fortuna Köln clean sheet	28%	–	–
Stuttgart II clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.1 6.5 4.5 1 8.4 11.7 7.1 3.1 2 7.2 9.1 5.8 2.5 3 4.0 5.0 3.2 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fortuna Köln down, Stuttgart II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,983 3. Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Fortuna Köln at home: 0.25 scored, 0.75 conceded a game (last 4). Stuttgart II away: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Fortuna Köln, 1.28 for Stuttgart II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 6 Sept

FORTUNA KÖLN

DDLWDL0–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–2

STUTTGART II

WLLDDW2–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	9	+15	24
2	FC Viktoria Köln	9	+13	19
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	9	+6	18
4	Hansa Rostock	9	0	15
5	FC Saarbrücken	9	+5	14
6	Fortuna Düsseldorf	9	0	14
7	Hoffenheim II	9	+4	13
8	Waldhof Mannheim	9	+2	13
9	Preußen Münster	9	−2	12
10	Verl	9	−3	12
11	Stuttgart II	9	−2	11
12	Alemannia Aachen	9	−3	11
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	9	−3	11
14	SV Wehen	9	−3	11
15	Fortuna Köln	9	−2	10
16	SV Meppen	9	−5	10
17	SSV Jahn Regensburg	9	+1	9
18	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	9	−7	9
19	Würzburger Kickers	9	−6	8
20	Havelse	9	−10	5