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Fortuna Köln v FC Saarbrücken

Fortuna Köln

0–0Full time

FC Saarbrücken

3. Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Südstadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Fortuna Köln 0–0 FC Saarbrücken FORTUNA KÖLN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fortuna Köln win~~38%

~~The market said~~29%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.817

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.834

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fortuna Köln win at 38%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Fortuna Köln 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–26–37
2′KICK-OFF Fortuna Köln v FC Saarbrücken
42′8.0 shots for FC Saarbrücken, 3.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 32–37–31
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Fortuna Köln win 32%)
44′🟨 YELLOW · 45' FC Saarbrücken
45′HALF-TIME Fortuna Köln 0–0 FC Saarbrücken
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Saarbrücken · On: Kaan Caliskaner · Off: Alexander Staff
46′SECOND HALF Fortuna Köln 0–0 FC Saarbrücken
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Fortuna Köln · On: Jannik Mause · Off: Bennit Bröger
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Saarbrücken · On: Kelsey Owusu · Off: Seung-joon Lee
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Fortuna Köln · On: Cedric Harenbrock · Off: Nico Thier
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' FC Saarbrücken · On: Christian Kühlwetter · Off: Kelsey Owusu Corrected
66′We said Fortuna Köln at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–54–23
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Fortuna Köln win: 38% at kick-off, 23% now
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' FC Saarbrücken · On: Zac Shuaib · Off: Sebastian Vasiliadis
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Fortuna Köln · On: Timo Bornemann · Off: Romeo Aigbekaen
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Fortuna Köln · On: David Savic · Off: Florian Heister
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Saarbrücken · On: Calogero Rizzuto · Off: Philip Fahrner
87′We said Fortuna Köln at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–91–4
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Fortuna Köln win: 38% at kick-off, 4% now
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' David Savic · Fortuna Köln
FTFULL TIME Fortuna Köln 0–0 FC Saarbrücken
FTFortuna Köln 0–0 FC Saarbrücken · Fortuna Köln win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Fortuna Köln win38%

Draw26%

FC Saarbrücken win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Südstadion

Referee · Felix Grund

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Fortuna Köln

4-3-1-2

1 L. Winkler

17 F. Heister

15 D. Al-Azzawe

5 S. Funger

3 M. Fischer

6 T. Geerkens

11 G. Strauch

20 A. Stanilewicz

38 B. Broger

30 R. Aigbekaen

7 N. Thier

Coach · Matthias Mink

Substitutes

25 · B. Zich

14 · C. Harenbrock

2 · K. Krumme

31 · N. Telle

16 · J. Michelbrink

23 · D. Savic

18 · H. Al Ghaddioui

37 · J. Mause

19 · T. Bornemann

FC Saarbrücken

4-4-2

1 M. Bignetti

42 P. Fahrner

21 M. Cvjetinovic

4 S. Voet

28 N. Bretschneider

20 F. Pick

5 D. Gleiber

19 S. Vasiliadis

16 Lee Seung-Joon

29 A. Staff

9 K. Brunker

Coach · Argirios Giannikis

Substitutes

33 · K. Broll

15 · A. Kamara

3 · A. Bauerle

7 · C. Rizzuto

10 · C. Kuhlwetter

22 · K. Caliskaner

8 · G. Gurpuz

14 · Z. Shuaib

31 · K. Owusu

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Fortuna Köln

4-3-1-2

1 L. Winkler

17 F. Heister

15 D. Al-Azzawe

5 S. Funger

3 M. Fischer

6 T. Geerkens

11 G. Strauch

20 A. Stanilewicz

38 B. Broger

30 R. Aigbekaen

7 N. Thier

Coach · Matthias Mink

Substitutes

25 · B. Zich

14 · C. Harenbrock

2 · K. Krumme

31 · N. Telle

16 · J. Michelbrink

23 · D. Savic

18 · H. Al Ghaddioui

37 · J. Mause

19 · T. Bornemann

FC Saarbrücken

4-4-2

1 M. Bignetti

42 P. Fahrner

21 M. Cvjetinovic

4 S. Voet

28 N. Bretschneider

20 F. Pick

5 D. Gleiber

19 S. Vasiliadis

16 Lee Seung-Joon

29 A. Staff

9 K. Brunker

Coach · Argirios Giannikis

Substitutes

33 · K. Broll

15 · A. Kamara

3 · A. Bauerle

7 · C. Rizzuto

10 · C. Kuhlwetter

22 · K. Caliskaner

8 · G. Gurpuz

14 · Z. Shuaib

31 · K. Owusu

Our number · fortuna köln winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

38% The market29%

Us38%

~~Market~~29%

We make Fortuna Köln a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fortuna köln win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 30% to 29% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fortuna Köln win	38%	29%	+9
Draw	26%	26%	0
FC Saarbrücken win	36%	45%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	53%	59%	−6
Both teams to score	57%	61%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	77%	79%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	38%	−7
Fortuna Köln or draw	64%	55%	+9
Fortuna Köln clean sheet	25%	–	–
FC Saarbrücken clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 6.8 8.0 5.9 2.7 1 8.2 12.3 8.1 3.8 2 6.1 8.3 5.7 2.6 3 2.9 3.9 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fortuna Köln down, FC Saarbrücken across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,964 3. Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Fortuna Köln at home: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). FC Saarbrücken away: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Fortuna Köln, 1.38 for FC Saarbrücken. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 12:59. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 3. Liga

FORTUNA KÖLN

DWDDLW1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 3–1

FC SAARBRÜCKEN

WLWLDW1–0 · 2–4 · 6–1 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	7	+12	18
2	FC Viktoria Köln	7	+10	15
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	8	+4	15
4	FC Saarbrücken	7	+7	13
5	Hoffenheim II	7	+6	13
6	Hansa Rostock	7	0	12
7	Preußen Münster	8	−1	12
8	Alemannia Aachen	7	+3	11
9	Waldhof Mannheim	7	+1	10
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	7	−1	10
11	Verl	7	−3	10
12	Fortuna Köln	7	0	9
13	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	7	−3	8
14	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	−4	8
15	Stuttgart II	7	−3	7
16	Würzburger Kickers	7	−4	7
17	SV Meppen	7	−7	6
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	7	−4	5
19	SV Wehen	7	−8	5
20	Havelse	7	−5	4