Fortuna Düsseldorf v Verl prediction · 3. Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Fortuna Düsseldorf 2–2 Verl VERL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Verl win~~39%

~~The market said~~24%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.820

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.903

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Verl win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Verl was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 35–25–39
14′Much as we predicted: Verl was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 34–28–38
47′Tim Heike scores for Verl on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 30–38–32
59′Verl ahead on 55′ through Janne Berner. 2–2. 2–2 · 25–47–27
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Verl win: 39% at kick-off, 32% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Verl win: 39% at kick-off, 27% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Verl win: 39% at kick-off, 32% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Verl · On: Raphael Araoye · Off: nick seidel
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Fortuna Düsseldorf · On: Jomaine Consbruch · Off: Philipp Förster
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Verl win: 39% at kick-off, 32% now
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Verl win: 39% at kick-off, 27% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Fortuna Düsseldorf · On: Sascha Risch · Off: Erik Wekesser
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Fortuna Düsseldorf · On: Jordi Paulina · Off: Anas Slimani
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Verl win: 39% at kick-off, 27% now
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Verl win: 39% at kick-off, 32% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Verl win: 39% at kick-off, 27% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Verl win: 39% at kick-off, 32% now
72′Verl ahead on 55′ through Janne Berner. 2–2. 2–2 · 19–61–20
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Verl win: 39% at kick-off, 32% now
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Verl win: 39% at kick-off, 27% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Fortuna Düsseldorf · On: Yassine Bouchama · Off: Jorrit Hendrix
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Elias Arden · Fortuna Düsseldorf
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Verl · On: Fabian Wessig · Off: Joshua Eze
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Tim Christopher Oberdorf · Fortuna Düsseldorf
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Fortuna Düsseldorf · On: Marcel Benger · Off: Elias Arden
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Verl · On: Dominik Martinovic · Off: Tim Heike
92′We said Verl at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 2–2 · 0–100–0
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Verl win: 39% at kick-off, 0% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Verl win: 39% at kick-off, 27% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Verl win: 39% at kick-off, 27% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Verl win: 39% at kick-off, 0% now
FTFULL TIME Fortuna Düsseldorf 2–2 Verl
FTFortuna Düsseldorf 2–2 Verl · Verl win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Fortuna Düsseldorf win35%

Draw26%

Verl win39%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 18:30

VenueMerkur Spielarena

RefereeSebastian Hilsberg

Line-ups

Fortuna Düsseldorf

4-3-1-2

Verl

4-3-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Fortuna Düsseldorf

Verl

22Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Fortuna Düsseldorf	7	−1	10
12	Verl	7	−3	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Fortuna Düsseldorf

4-3-1-2

22 L. Lord

2 S. van der Sloot

15 T. Oberdorf

4 L. Bornschein

7 E. Wekesser

6 A. Muller

38 E. Arden

8 J. Hendrix

10 P. Forster

24 F. Schleusener

34 A. Slimani

Coach · Alexander Ende

Substitutes

1 · L. Riess

25 · M. Zimmermann

28 · S. Risch

16 · M. Benger

14 · J. Consbruch

5 · Y. Bouchama

18 · M. Goncalves

23 · F. Gerezgiher

27 · J. Paulina

Verl

4-3-1-2

1 T. Schlieck

34 J. Berner

22 N. Konig

5 N. Seidel

19 N. Kijewski

30 A. Mesanovic

6 J. Eze

8 D. Waidner

21 M. Clausen

25 T. Heike

20 A. Leipold

Coach · Orest Shala

Substitutes

32 · F. Pekruhl

14 · P. Lehmann

11 · M. Kaube

2 · R. Araoye

29 · E. Bamba

18 · F. Wessig

23 · K. Rabihic

24 · D. Martinovic

17 · Y. Otto

Our number · verl winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

39% The market24%

Us39%

~~Market~~24%

We make Verl a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 24%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fortuna Düsseldorf win	35%	52%	−17
Draw	26%	24%	+2
Verl win	39%	24%	+15
Over 2.5 goals	54%	60%	−7
Both teams to score	57%	61%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	81%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	32%	40%	−8
Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw	61%	76%	−15
Fortuna Düsseldorf clean sheet	24%	–	–
Verl clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.6 8.1 6.2 3.1 1 7.6 12.2 8.4 4.1 2 5.6 7.9 5.8 2.8 3 2.6 3.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fortuna Düsseldorf down, Verl across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,970 3. Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.9% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Verl away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1.46 for Verl. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 3. Liga

FORTUNA DÜSSELDORF

LWDWWL0–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1

VERL

LLWWDW2–4 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	8	+13	21
2	FC Viktoria Köln	7	+10	15
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	8	+4	15
4	Hansa Rostock	8	+2	15
5	FC Saarbrücken	8	+7	14
6	Hoffenheim II	8	+5	13
7	Waldhof Mannheim	8	+5	13
8	Preußen Münster	8	−1	12
9	Alemannia Aachen	7	+3	11
10	Fortuna Köln	8	0	10
11	Fortuna Düsseldorf	7	−1	10
12	Verl	7	−3	10
13	SSV Jahn Regensburg	8	+1	8
14	Stuttgart II	8	−3	8
15	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	−4	8
16	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	8	−7	8
17	Würzburger Kickers	8	−6	7
18	SV Meppen	8	−7	7
19	SV Wehen	7	−8	5
20	Havelse	8	−10	4