Fortuna Düsseldorf v SV Meppen prediction · 3. Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Fortuna DüsseldorfDrawSV Meppen

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Fortuna Düsseldorf 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fortuna Düsseldorf are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fortuna Düsseldorf 45%, draw 26%, SV Meppen 28%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Fortuna Düsseldorf v SV MeppenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Fortuna Düsseldorf win45%

Draw26%

SV Meppen win28%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueMerkur Spiel-Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fortuna Düsseldorf

SV Meppen

6Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · 3. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	11	−2	15
11	SV Meppen	11	−1	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fortuna düsseldorf winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Fortuna Düsseldorf a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fortuna Düsseldorf v SV Meppen~~1.55 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 15 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 14~~10 v 11

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fortuna Düsseldorf win

Published at 47%, 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fortuna Düsseldorf win	45%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
SV Meppen win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw	72%	–	–
Fortuna Düsseldorf clean sheet	31%	–	–
SV Meppen clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.3 7.2 4.6 1 9.7 12.3 6.9 2.7 2 7.8 9.0 5.3 2.1 3 4.1 4.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fortuna Düsseldorf down, SV Meppen across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,000 3. Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.20 scored, 1.60 conceded a game (last 5). SV Meppen away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1.18 for SV Meppen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 15 Sept

FORTUNA DÜSSELDORF

WLDWLD2–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–1

SV MEPPEN

LLDWDW1–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	11	+14	25
2	FC Viktoria Köln	11	+15	23
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	11	+6	21
4	FC Saarbrücken	10	+7	17
5	Alemannia Aachen	11	0	17
6	FC Ingolstadt 04	11	−1	17
7	Hoffenheim II	10	+5	16
8	Hansa Rostock	11	−2	16
9	SV Wehen	11	+3	15
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	11	−2	15
11	SV Meppen	11	−1	14
12	Stuttgart II	11	−2	14
13	Waldhof Mannheim	10	0	13
14	Preußen Münster	10	−3	12
15	Verl	11	−6	12
16	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	11	−12	12
17	Würzburger Kickers	11	−8	11
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	11	0	10
19	Fortuna Köln	10	−3	10
20	Havelse	10	−10	6