Fortuna Düsseldorf v FC Saarbrücken prediction · 3. Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1–3 FC Saarbrücken FORTUNA DÜSSELDORF WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fortuna Düsseldorf win~~38%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.632

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.738

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fortuna Düsseldorf win at 38%.
2′Much as we predicted: Fortuna Düsseldorf was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–35
2′KICK-OFF Fortuna Düsseldorf v FC Saarbrücken
10′We published Fortuna Düsseldorf at 38%. Our model now makes it 65%. 1–0 · 65–20–15
10′Fortuna Düsseldorf score on 10′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 65–20–15
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Fortuna Düsseldorf 1–0 FC Saarbrücken
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Fortuna Düsseldorf win: 38% at kick-off, 65% now
12′11′: Jordi Paulina on the scoresheet for Fortuna Düsseldorf, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 65–20–15
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Fortuna Düsseldorf 1–1 FC Saarbrücken
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Fortuna Düsseldorf win: 38% at kick-off, 37% now
15′FC Saarbrücken level it on 13′ through Kai Brünker. 1–1. 1–1 · 37–29–34
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Fortuna Düsseldorf win 32%)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Mladen cvjetinovic · FC Saarbrücken
45′SECOND HALF Fortuna Düsseldorf 1–1 FC Saarbrücken
46′HALF-TIME Fortuna Düsseldorf 1–1 FC Saarbrücken
49′We said Fortuna Düsseldorf at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–2 · 8–22–70
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Fortuna Düsseldorf 1–2 FC Saarbrücken
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Fortuna Düsseldorf win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' FC Saarbrücken win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 22%)
50′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 8–22–70
53′Kelsey Owusu scores for FC Saarbrücken on 50′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 7–22–71
58′Fortuna Düsseldorf have had 10 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 6–21–73
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' FC Saarbrücken · On: Alexander Staff · Off: Gokdeniz Gurpuz
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Fortuna Düsseldorf · On: Fabian Schleusener · Off: Jomaine Consbruch
65′We said Fortuna Düsseldorf at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–19–76
68′13 shots for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 4 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 4–18–78
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Fortuna Düsseldorf · On: Philipp Förster · Off: Jordi Paulina
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Fortuna Düsseldorf · On: Miguel Fernandes Goncalves · Off: Jorrit Hendrix
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FC Saarbrücken · On: Seung-joon Lee · Off: Kelsey Owusu
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Fortuna Düsseldorf · On: Lukas Bornschein · Off: Andreas Müller
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Fortuna Düsseldorf · On: Sascha Risch · Off: Erik Wekesser
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Saarbrücken · On: Maurice Multhaup · Off: Florian Pick
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' FC Saarbrücken · On: Kaan Caliskaner · Off: Kai Brünker
90′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Lukas Bornschein · Fortuna Düsseldorf
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Fortuna Düsseldorf 1–3 FC Saarbrücken
92′90′: Alexander Staff on the scoresheet for FC Saarbrücken, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Alexander Staff · FC Saarbrücken
94′Full time, 1–3. We called Fortuna Düsseldorf at 38% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Fortuna Düsseldorf 1–3 FC Saarbrücken
FTFortuna Düsseldorf 1–3 FC Saarbrücken · Fortuna Düsseldorf win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Fortuna Düsseldorf just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Fortuna Düsseldorf 38%, draw 27%, FC Saarbrücken 35%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Fortuna Düsseldorf v FC SaarbrückenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Fortuna Düsseldorf win38%

Draw27%

FC Saarbrücken win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueMerkur Spielarena

RefereeLeonidas Exuzidis

Line-ups

Fortuna Düsseldorf

4-4-2

FC Saarbrücken

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fortuna Düsseldorf

FC Saarbrücken

3Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · 3. Liga

Last match: 13 Oct · 3. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	FC Saarbrücken	9	+5	14
6	Fortuna Düsseldorf	9	0	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Fortuna Düsseldorf

4-4-2

22 L. Lord

2 S. van der Sloot

15 T. Oberdorf

44 E. Egouli

7 E. Wekesser

38 E. Arden

6 A. Muller

8 J. Hendrix

14 J. Consbruch

9 E. Hottmann

27 J. Paulina

Coach · Alexander Ende

Substitutes

1 · L. Riess

25 · M. Zimmermann

28 · S. Risch

4 · L. Bornschein

10 · P. Forster

16 · M. Benger

5 · Y. Bouchama

18 · M. Goncalves

24 · F. Schleusener

FC Saarbrücken

4-4-2

1 M. Bignetti

42 P. Fahrner

21 M. Cvjetinovic

4 S. Voet

28 N. Bretschneider

20 F. Pick

5 D. Gleiber

8 G. Gurpuz

31 K. Owusu

9 K. Brunker

10 C. Kuhlwetter

Coach · Argirios Giannikis

Substitutes

33 · K. Broll

15 · A. Kamara

3 · A. Bauerle

7 · C. Rizzuto

22 · K. Caliskaner

14 · Z. Shuaib

11 · M. Multhaup

16 · Lee Seung-Joon

29 · A. Staff

Our number · fortuna düsseldorf winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:46 · locked at kick-off

38% The market44%

Us38%

~~Market~~44%

We make Fortuna Düsseldorf a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fortuna Düsseldorf v FC Saarbrücken~~1.40 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 14~~6 v 5

~~The market · Fortuna Düsseldorf win~~44% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fortuna Düsseldorf win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fortuna Düsseldorf win	38%	44%	−6
Draw	27%	25%	+2
FC Saarbrücken win	35%	31%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	51%	61%	−10
Both teams to score	56%	62%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	76%	81%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	29%	41%	−12
Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw	65%	69%	−4
Fortuna Düsseldorf clean sheet	27%	–	–
FC Saarbrücken clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.2 8.2 5.8 2.6 1 8.6 12.5 8.0 3.6 2 6.3 8.3 5.5 2.5 3 3.0 3.9 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fortuna Düsseldorf down, FC Saarbrücken across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,984 3. Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.0% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.25 scored, 1.25 conceded a game (last 4). FC Saarbrücken away: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1.34 for FC Saarbrücken. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 5 Sept

FORTUNA DÜSSELDORF

DWWLDW0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

FC SAARBRÜCKEN

WLDWDL6–1 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	9	+15	24
2	FC Viktoria Köln	9	+13	19
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	9	+6	18
4	Hansa Rostock	9	0	15
5	FC Saarbrücken	9	+5	14
6	Fortuna Düsseldorf	9	0	14
7	Stuttgart II	10	−1	14
8	Hoffenheim II	9	+4	13
9	Waldhof Mannheim	9	+2	13
10	Preußen Münster	9	−2	12
11	Verl	9	−3	12
12	Alemannia Aachen	9	−3	11
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	9	−3	11
14	SV Wehen	9	−3	11
15	Fortuna Köln	10	−3	10
16	SV Meppen	9	−5	10
17	SSV Jahn Regensburg	9	+1	9
18	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	9	−7	9
19	Würzburger Kickers	9	−6	8
20	Havelse	9	−10	5