

FC Viktoria Köln v Verl
FC Viktoria Köln
Verl3. Liga · SAT 24 OCT · Sportpark Höhenberg
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said FC Viktoria Köln win at 42%.
- 1′KICK-OFF FC Viktoria Köln v Verl
- 2′Much as we predicted: FC Viktoria Köln was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–24–34
- 17′SUBSTITUTION · 16' Verl · On: Fabian Wessig · Off: Joshua Eze
- 23′SUBSTITUTION · 23' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Kilian Jakob · Off: Yannick Aime Tonye
- 37′We published FC Viktoria Köln at 42%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–20–11
- 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' FC Viktoria Köln 1–0 Verl
- 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' FC Viktoria Köln win: 42% at kick-off, 69% now
- 38′GOAL DISALLOWED · 38' FC Viktoria Köln
- 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' FC Viktoria Köln win: 42% at kick-off, 37% now
- 43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Almin Mesanovic · Verl
- 45′SECOND HALF FC Viktoria Köln 0–1 Verl
- 47′We said FC Viktoria Köln at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–23–66
- 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' FC Viktoria Köln 0–1 Verl
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' FC Viktoria Köln win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
- 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Verl win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was FC Viktoria Köln win 35%)
- 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Niklas Jahn · Off: Lucas Wolf
- 48′Verl ahead on 45′ through Fabian Wessig. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–23–65
- 48′HALF-TIME FC Viktoria Köln 0–1 Verl
- 54′We said FC Viktoria Köln at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
- 55′9 shots for FC Viktoria Köln, 4 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 9–23–68
- 59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Nick Seidel · Verl
- 69′We said FC Viktoria Köln at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Verl · On: Mika Clausen · Off: M. Kaube
- 70′We said FC Viktoria Köln at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–56–21
- 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' FC Viktoria Köln 1–1 Verl
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' FC Viktoria Köln win: 42% at kick-off, 24% now
- 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Verl win 76%)
- 71′FC Viktoria Köln have had 12 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 23–57–20
- 73′David Otto scores for FC Viktoria Köln on 71′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 22–60–19
- 76′We said FC Viktoria Köln at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–16
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' FC Viktoria Köln win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Verl · On: Janne Berner · Off: Niko Kijewski
- 86′We published FC Viktoria Köln at 42%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–1 · 93–7–0
- 86′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 2–1 · 93–7–0
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Verl · On: Alem Japaur · Off: Almin Mesanovic
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Jakob Sachse · Off: David Otto
- 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' FC Viktoria Köln 2–1 Verl
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' FC Viktoria Köln win: 42% at kick-off, 93% now
- 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' FC Viktoria Köln win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 83%)
- 88′We published FC Viktoria Köln at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 88′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' FC Viktoria Köln 3–1 Verl
- 89′86′: Taylan Duman on the scoresheet for FC Viktoria Köln. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 91′FC Viktoria Köln ahead on 90′ through Kilian Jakob. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 92′FC Viktoria Köln ahead on 89′ through Kilian Jakob. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Kilian Jakob · FC Viktoria Köln
- 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Niklas Swider · FC Viktoria Köln
- 96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Jason Amann · Off: Taylan Duman
- 97′Full time, 3–1. We called FC Viktoria Köln at 42% — that one lands. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 97′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Verthomy Schilo Boboy · Off: Pascal Fallmann
- FTFULL TIME FC Viktoria Köln 3–1 Verl
- FTFC Viktoria Köln 3–1 Verl · FC Viktoria Köln win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
FC Viktoria Köln are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: FC Viktoria Köln 42%, draw 24%, Verl 34%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
FC Viktoria Köln win42%
Verl win34%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00
RoundMatchday 11
VenueSportpark Höhenberg
RefereeNiclas Rose
Match timeline
All events
FC Viktoria KölnMIN
VerlEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
FC Viktoria Köln
3-4-3
Verl
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
FC Viktoria Köln
Verl
Last match: 18 Oct · 3. Liga
Last match: 18 Oct · 3. Liga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
FC Viktoria Köln
3-4-3
1 A. Schulz
19 M. Sponsel
6 T. Eisenhuth
16 Tim Kloss
28 P. Fallmann
8 T. Duman
20 Niklas Swider
7 Y. Tonye
44 N. Castelle
10 D. Otto
21 L. Wolf
Coach · M. Wilhelm
Substitutes
99 · N. Jahn
11 · E. Gueye
24 · J. Amann
26 · K. Jakob
37 · N. Le Bret
17 · M. Pledl
9 · J. Sachse
22 · V. Boboy
12 · D. Wyciok
Verl
4-2-3-1
1 T. Schlieck
14 P. Lehmann
22 N. König
5 Nick Seidel
19 N. Kijewski
8 D. Waidner
6 J. Eze
30 A. Mešanović
11 M. Kaube
20 A. Leipold
25 T. Heike
Coach · Orest Shala
Substitutes
2 · Raphael Araoye
34 · Janne Berner
21 · M. Clausen
9 · A. Japaur
17 · Y. Otto
32 · F. Pekruhl
23 · K. Rabihić
18 · F. Wessig
10 · B. Yalcinkaya
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
FC Viktoria Köln
3-4-3
1 A. Schulz
19 M. Sponsel
6 T. Eisenhuth
16 Tim Kloss
28 P. Fallmann
8 T. Duman
20 Niklas Swider
7 Y. Tonye
44 N. Castelle
10 D. Otto
21 L. Wolf
Coach · M. Wilhelm
Substitutes
99 · N. Jahn
11 · E. Gueye
24 · J. Amann
26 · K. Jakob
37 · N. Le Bret
17 · M. Pledl
9 · J. Sachse
22 · V. Boboy
12 · D. Wyciok
Verl
4-2-3-1
1 T. Schlieck
14 P. Lehmann
22 N. König
5 Nick Seidel
19 N. Kijewski
8 D. Waidner
6 J. Eze
30 A. Mešanović
11 M. Kaube
20 A. Leipold
25 T. Heike
Coach · Orest Shala
Substitutes
2 · Raphael Araoye
34 · Janne Berner
21 · M. Clausen
9 · A. Japaur
17 · Y. Otto
32 · F. Pekruhl
23 · K. Rabihić
18 · F. Wessig
10 · B. Yalcinkaya
We make FC Viktoria Köln a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Viktoria Köln win | 42% | 57% | −15 |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | +3 |
| Verl win | 34% | 22% | +12 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 70% | −8 |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 66% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 86% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 50% | −10 |
| FC Viktoria Köln or draw | 66% | 78% | −12 |
| FC Viktoria Köln clean sheet | 23% | – | – |
| Verl clean sheet | 19% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 11 Sept
FC VIKTORIA KÖLN
VERL
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 10 | +15 | 25 |
| 2 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 3 | FC Viktoria Köln | 10 | +13 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 10 | +7 | 17 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim II | 10 | +5 | 16 |
| 6 | Hansa Rostock | 10 | −2 | 15 |
| 7 | Stuttgart II | 10 | −1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alemannia Aachen | 10 | −1 | 14 |
| 9 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 10 | −2 | 14 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 10 | −2 | 14 |
| 11 | Waldhof Mannheim | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Preußen Münster | 10 | −3 | 12 |
| 13 | SV Wehen | 10 | −3 | 12 |
| 14 | Verl | 10 | −4 | 12 |
| 15 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 10 | −6 | 12 |
| 16 | Würzburger Kickers | 10 | −4 | 11 |
| 17 | SV Meppen | 10 | −5 | 11 |
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 11 | 0 | 10 |
| 19 | Fortuna Köln | 10 | −3 | 10 |
| 20 | Havelse | 10 | −10 | 6 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
MSV Duisburg
Rot-Weiß Essen
FC Saarbrücken
Hoffenheim II
Hansa Rostock
Stuttgart II
Alemannia Aachen
FC Ingolstadt 04
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Waldhof Mannheim
Preußen Münster
SV Wehen
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Würzburger Kickers
SV Meppen
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Fortuna Köln
Havelse