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FC Viktoria Köln v Verl

FC Viktoria Köln
3–1Full time
Verl

3. Liga · SAT 24 OCT · Sportpark Höhenberg

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38
FC Viktoria Köln 3–1 Verl FC VIKTORIA KÖLN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FC Viktoria Köln win42%
The market said57%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.508
The market’s Brier score0.282

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 32 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FC Viktoria Köln win at 42%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF FC Viktoria Köln v Verl
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: FC Viktoria Köln was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–24–34
  4. 17′SUBSTITUTION · 16' Verl · On: Fabian Wessig · Off: Joshua Eze
  5. 23′SUBSTITUTION · 23' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Kilian Jakob · Off: Yannick Aime Tonye
  6. 37′We published FC Viktoria Köln at 42%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–20–11
  7. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' FC Viktoria Köln 1–0 Verl
  8. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' FC Viktoria Köln win: 42% at kick-off, 69% now
  9. 38′GOAL DISALLOWED · 38' FC Viktoria Köln
  10. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' FC Viktoria Köln win: 42% at kick-off, 37% now
  11. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Almin Mesanovic · Verl
  12. 45′SECOND HALF FC Viktoria Köln 0–1 Verl
  13. 47′We said FC Viktoria Köln at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–23–66
  14. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' FC Viktoria Köln 0–1 Verl
  15. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' FC Viktoria Köln win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
  16. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Verl win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was FC Viktoria Köln win 35%)
  17. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Niklas Jahn · Off: Lucas Wolf
  18. 48′Verl ahead on 45′ through Fabian Wessig. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–23–65
  19. 48′HALF-TIME FC Viktoria Köln 0–1 Verl
  20. 54′We said FC Viktoria Köln at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
  21. 55′9 shots for FC Viktoria Köln, 4 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 9–23–68
  22. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Nick Seidel · Verl
  23. 69′We said FC Viktoria Köln at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
  24. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Verl · On: Mika Clausen · Off: M. Kaube
  25. 70′We said FC Viktoria Köln at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–56–21
  26. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' FC Viktoria Köln 1–1 Verl
  27. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' FC Viktoria Köln win: 42% at kick-off, 24% now
  28. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Verl win 76%)
  29. 71′FC Viktoria Köln have had 12 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 23–57–20
  30. 73′David Otto scores for FC Viktoria Köln on 71′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 22–60–19
  31. 76′We said FC Viktoria Köln at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–16
  32. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' FC Viktoria Köln win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
  33. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Verl · On: Janne Berner · Off: Niko Kijewski
  34. 86′We published FC Viktoria Köln at 42%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–1 · 93–7–0
  35. 86′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 2–1 · 93–7–0
  36. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Verl · On: Alem Japaur · Off: Almin Mesanovic
  37. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Jakob Sachse · Off: David Otto
  38. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' FC Viktoria Köln 2–1 Verl
  39. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' FC Viktoria Köln win: 42% at kick-off, 93% now
  40. 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' FC Viktoria Köln win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 83%)
  41. 88′We published FC Viktoria Köln at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  42. 88′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  43. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' FC Viktoria Köln 3–1 Verl
  44. 89′86′: Taylan Duman on the scoresheet for FC Viktoria Köln. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  45. 91′FC Viktoria Köln ahead on 90′ through Kilian Jakob. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  46. 92′FC Viktoria Köln ahead on 89′ through Kilian Jakob. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  47. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Kilian Jakob · FC Viktoria Köln
  48. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Niklas Swider · FC Viktoria Köln
  49. 96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Jason Amann · Off: Taylan Duman
  50. 97′Full time, 3–1. We called FC Viktoria Köln at 42% — that one lands. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  51. 97′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Verthomy Schilo Boboy · Off: Pascal Fallmann
  52. FTFULL TIME FC Viktoria Köln 3–1 Verl
  53. FTFC Viktoria Köln 3–1 Verl · FC Viktoria Köln win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Viktoria Köln are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Viktoria Köln 42%, draw 24%, Verl 34%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on FC Viktoria Köln v VerlBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

FC Viktoria Köln win42%
Draw24%
Verl win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSportpark Höhenberg

RefereeNiclas Rose

Line-ups

FC Viktoria Köln

3-4-3

Verl

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Viktoria Köln

Verl

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. Liga

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3FC Viktoria Köln10+1320
14Verl10−412

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Viktoria Köln

3-4-3

1 A. Schulz

19 M. Sponsel

6 T. Eisenhuth

16 Tim Kloss

28 P. Fallmann

8 T. Duman

20 Niklas Swider

7 Y. Tonye

44 N. Castelle

10 D. Otto

21 L. Wolf

Coach · M. Wilhelm

Substitutes

99 · N. Jahn

11 · E. Gueye

24 · J. Amann

26 · K. Jakob

37 · N. Le Bret

17 · M. Pledl

9 · J. Sachse

22 · V. Boboy

12 · D. Wyciok

Verl

4-2-3-1

1 T. Schlieck

14 P. Lehmann

22 N. König

5 Nick Seidel

19 N. Kijewski

8 D. Waidner

6 J. Eze

30 A. Mešanović

11 M. Kaube

20 A. Leipold

25 T. Heike

Coach · Orest Shala

Substitutes

2 · Raphael Araoye

34 · Janne Berner

21 · M. Clausen

9 · A. Japaur

17 · Y. Otto

32 · F. Pekruhl

23 · K. Rabihić

18 · F. Wessig

10 · B. Yalcinkaya

Our number · fc viktoria köln winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
42% The market57%
Us42%
Market57%

We make FC Viktoria Köln a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · FC Viktoria Köln v Verl1.70 – 1.50
Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 11 SeptW4 D2 L0 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 20 v 123 v 14
The market · FC Viktoria Köln win57% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:17
Our probability · FC Viktoria Köln win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
FC Viktoria Köln win42%57%−15
Draw24%21%+3
Verl win34%22%+12
Over 2.5 goals62%70%−8
Both teams to score63%66%−3
Over 1.5 goals83%86%−3
Over 3.5 goals40%50%−10
FC Viktoria Köln or draw66%78%−12
FC Viktoria Köln clean sheet23%––
Verl clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%
0123450 4.7 5.7 4.6 2.3 1 6.5 10.8 7.7 3.9 2 5.9 8.7 6.5 3.3 3 3.3 4.9 3.7 4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+FC Viktoria Köln down, Verl across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.70
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored9 of 10
Last meetingsVER 2–0 FCV · FCV 1–5 VER · VER 1–1 FCV · FCV 2–1 VER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 11 Sept

FC VIKTORIA KÖLN

WWWWDD4–0 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 5–2 · 2–2 · 1–1

VERL

WDWDDL2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1MSV Duisburg10+1525
2Rot-Weiß Essen11+621
3FC Viktoria Köln10+1320
4FC Saarbrücken10+717
5Hoffenheim II10+516
6Hansa Rostock10−215
7Stuttgart II10−114
8Alemannia Aachen10−114
9FC Ingolstadt 0410−214
10Fortuna Düsseldorf10−214
11Waldhof Mannheim10013
12Preußen Münster10−312
13SV Wehen10−312
14Verl10−412
15SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach10−612
16Würzburger Kickers10−411
17SV Meppen10−511
18SSV Jahn Regensburg11010
19Fortuna Köln10−310
20Havelse10−106

The competition's standings before kick-off.