FC Viktoria Köln v SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach prediction · 3. Liga

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 20:30

FC Viktoria Köln 2–2 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach FC VIKTORIA KÖLN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Viktoria Köln win~~55%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.936

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.052

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Viktoria Köln win at 55%.
1′KICK-OFF FC Viktoria Köln v SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
2′Much as we predicted: FC Viktoria Köln was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–23–22
6′A goal for FC Viktoria Köln on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–14–8
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' FC Viktoria Köln 1–0 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
7′We published FC Viktoria Köln at 55%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–14–8
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' FC Viktoria Köln win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' FC Viktoria Köln 2–0 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · Niklas Horst Castelle
13′We published FC Viktoria Köln at 55%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' FC Viktoria Köln win: 55% at kick-off, 92% now
14′11′ and it is 2–0: FC Viktoria Köln have scored. 2–0 · 92–6–2
28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
30′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Volkan Çeliktaş · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
40′We published FC Viktoria Köln at 55%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
40′🟨 YELLOW · 38' lukas stoppel · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' FC Viktoria Köln win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
45′SECOND HALF FC Viktoria Köln 2–0 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
50′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 2–0 · 96–4–1
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
52′🟨 YELLOW · 50' christian mistl · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' FC Viktoria Köln
65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · On: Tim Rossmann · Off: lukas stoppel
65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · On: Fabian Eisele · Off: christian mistl
65′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Pascal Fallmann · FC Viktoria Köln
69′We published FC Viktoria Köln at 55%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' FC Viktoria Köln 2–1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' FC Viktoria Köln win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
70′SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach find the net on 70′. 2–1. 2–1 · 85–13–2
72′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 86–13–1
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Marco Pledl · Off: Pascal Fallmann
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Taylan Duman · Off: Lucas Wolf
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Jason aman · Off: Niklas Horst Castelle
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Jakob Sachse · Off: Niklas Swider
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Noah Maboulou · Off: David Otto
85′PENALTY MISSED · 86' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
87′We said FC Viktoria Köln at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–87–5
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' FC Viktoria Köln win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' FC Viktoria Köln 2–2 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · Fabian Eisele
87′PENALTY MISSED · 86' Fabian Eisele · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' FC Viktoria Köln win: 55% at kick-off, 9% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 87% (was FC Viktoria Köln win 9%)
89′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 7–89–4
90′FC Viktoria Köln have had 18.0 attempts to 13.0 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 6–91–3
90′A goal for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach on 88′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 6–91–3
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' FC Viktoria Köln win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
92′We said FC Viktoria Köln at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–94–2
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' FC Viktoria Köln win: 55% at kick-off, 4% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Draw is now our likeliest result at 94% (was FC Viktoria Köln win 4%)
FTFULL TIME FC Viktoria Köln 2–2 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
FTFC Viktoria Köln 2–2 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · FC Viktoria Köln win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on FC Viktoria Köln v SG Sonnenhof GrossaspachBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

FC Viktoria Köln win55%

Draw23%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win22%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 18:00

VenueSportpark Höhenberg

RefereeCengiz Kabalakli

Line-ups

FC Viktoria Köln

4-4-2

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

FC Viktoria Köln

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

3Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	FC Viktoria Köln	8	13	18
19	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	8	-7	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Viktoria Köln

4-4-2

1 A. Schulz

19 M. Sponsel

6 T. Eisenhuth

18 T. Kloss

26 K. Jakob

28 P. Fallmann

16 N. Jahn

20 N. Swider

21 L. M. Wolf

44 N. H. Castelle

10 D. Otto

Coach · Marian Wilhelm

Substitutes

12 · D. Wyciok

24 · J. Amann

39 · F. Albers

8 · T. Duman

11 · E. B. Gueye

22 · V. Boboy

17 · M. Pledl

9 · J. Sachse

37 · N. Maboulou

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

4-2-3-1

1 M. Reule

8 E. Rahn

15 A. Aidonis

25 A. Nuraj

21 L. Molinari

5 V. Celiktas

6 C. Mistl

27 L. Maier

16 M. Kunde

10 L. Stoppel

18 N. Pollex

Coach · Pascal Reinhardt

Substitutes

33 · T. Schulz

19 · M. Uhl

20 · L. Maier

36 · M. Gashi

4 · F. Bleicher

11 · T. Rossmann

37 · L. Schurer

23 · F. Eisele

13 · N. Zografakis

Our number · fc viktoria köln winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

55% The market62%

Us55%

~~Market~~62%

We make FC Viktoria Köln a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Viktoria Köln v SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach~~1.88 – 1.10

~~Last six in 3. Liga~~W5 D0 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 18 v 8~~2 v 19

~~The market · FC Viktoria Köln win~~62% · ours 55%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc viktoria köln win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Viktoria Köln win	55%	62%	−7
Draw	23%	20%	+3
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win	22%	18%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	57%	68%	−11
Both teams to score	57%	63%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	80%	85%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	35%	48%	−14
FC Viktoria Köln or draw	78%	82%	−4
FC Viktoria Köln clean sheet	34%	–	–
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.7 5.2 3.1 1 9.1 10.9 5.7 2.1 2 8.9 9.7 5.3 3 5.6 6.1 3.3 4 2.7 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Viktoria Köln down, SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,978 3. Liga matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.9% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

FC Viktoria Köln at home: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for FC Viktoria Köln, 1.10 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in 3. Liga since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in 3. Liga

FC VIKTORIA KÖLN

WLWWWW4–1 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 5–2

SG SONNENHOF GROSSASPACH

LWDDLL0–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	9	15	24
2	FC Viktoria Köln	8	13	18
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	9	6	18
4	Hansa Rostock	9	0	15
5	FC Saarbrücken	9	5	14
6	Waldhof Mannheim	8	5	13
7	Hoffenheim II	9	4	13
8	Preußen Münster	8	-1	12
9	Alemannia Aachen	8	0	11
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	8	-1	11
11	Stuttgart II	9	-2	11
12	Verl	8	-3	11
13	Fortuna Köln	9	-2	10
14	SV Meppen	9	-5	10
15	SSV Jahn Regensburg	8	1	8
16	Würzburger Kickers	9	-6	8
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	8	-6	8
18	SV Wehen	8	-6	8
19	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	8	-7	8
20	Havelse	9	-10	5