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FC Saarbrücken v MSV Duisburg

FC Saarbrücken

2–4Full time

MSV Duisburg

3. Liga · TUE 13 OCT · Ludwigspark-Stadion

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 20:46

FC Saarbrücken 2–4 MSV Duisburg FC SAARBRÜCKEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Saarbrücken win~~43%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.700

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.604

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Saarbrücken win at 43%.
0′Much as we predicted: FC Saarbrücken was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–24–33
1′KICK-OFF FC Saarbrücken v MSV Duisburg
28′We said FC Saarbrücken at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–23–61
28′MSV Duisburg ahead on 29′ through Lex-Tyger Lobinger. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–23–61
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' FC Saarbrücken 0–1 MSV Duisburg
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' FC Saarbrücken win: 43% at kick-off, 16% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' MSV Duisburg win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was FC Saarbrücken win 16%)
28′⚽ GOAL · 29' FC Saarbrücken 0–1 MSV Duisburg
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 15–23–61
33′We said FC Saarbrücken at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–85
33′Tobias Fleckstein scores for MSV Duisburg on 34′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 4–11–85
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' FC Saarbrücken 0–2 MSV Duisburg · Lex-Tyger Lobinger
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' FC Saarbrücken win: 43% at kick-off, 4% now
33′⚽ GOAL · 34' FC Saarbrücken 0–2 MSV Duisburg · Tobias Fleckstein
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' FC Saarbrücken win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' FC Saarbrücken 0–3 MSV Duisburg · Tobias Fleckstein
41′⚽ GOAL · 43' FC Saarbrücken 0–3 MSV Duisburg · Rasim Bulic
42′43′ and it is 0–3: Rasim Bulic on the scoresheet for MSV Duisburg. 0–3 · 1–3–97
43′42′ and it is 0–3: Rasim Bulic on the scoresheet for MSV Duisburg. 0–3 · 1–2–97
45′SECOND HALF FC Saarbrücken 0–3 MSV Duisburg
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Saarbrücken · On: Kai Brünker · Off: Kaan Caliskaner Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Saarbrücken · On: Sebastian Vasiliadis · Off: Daniel Gleiber Corrected
48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Philip Fahrner · FC Saarbrücken
49′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 2–8–90
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' FC Saarbrücken 1–3 MSV Duisburg · Rasim Bulic
51′FC Saarbrücken ahead on 50′ through Kai Brünker. 1–3. 1–3 · 2–8–90
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' FC Saarbrücken 1–3 MSV Duisburg · Kai Brünker
54′SUBSTITUTION · 54' FC Saarbrücken · On: Calogero Rizzuto · Off: Philip Fahrner Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' FC Saarbrücken · On: Gokdeniz Gurpuz · Off: Alexander Staff Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' MSV Duisburg · On: Peter Remmert · Off: Lex-Tyger Lobinger Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' MSV Duisburg · On: Ramien Safi · Off: Conor Noss Corrected
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Florian Pick · FC Saarbrücken
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' MSV Duisburg · On: Max Besuschkow · Off: niklas jessen Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' MSV Duisburg · On: Can Coskun · Off: Frederik Christensen Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' FC Saarbrücken · On: Christian Kühlwetter · Off: Zac Shuaib Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' MSV Duisburg · On: Florian Krüger · Off: Dominik Kother Corrected
80′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
80′90′ and it is 1–4: Gokdeniz Gurpuz on the scoresheet for FC Saarbrücken. 1–4 · 0–0–100
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' FC Saarbrücken 1–4 MSV Duisburg · Kai Brünker
80′⚽ GOAL · 81' FC Saarbrücken 1–4 MSV Duisburg · Florian Krüger
80′⚽ GOAL · 91' FC Saarbrücken 1–4 MSV Duisburg · Gokdeniz Gurpuz
81′Florian Krüger scores for MSV Duisburg on 81′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME FC Saarbrücken 1–4 MSV Duisburg
FTFC Saarbrücken 2–4 MSV Duisburg · FC Saarbrücken win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

FC Saarbrücken win43%

Draw25%

MSV Duisburg win32%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 18:00

VenueLudwigspark-Stadion

RefereeFelix Weller

Line-ups

FC Saarbrücken

4-4-2

MSV Duisburg

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

FC Saarbrücken

MSV Duisburg

3Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	8	+13	21
5	FC Saarbrücken	8	+7	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Saarbrücken

4-4-2

1 M. Bignetti

42 P. Fahrner

21 M. Cvjetinovic

4 S. Voet

28 N. Bretschneider

20 F. Pick

5 D. Gleiber

14 Z. Shuaib

31 K. Owusu

29 A. Staff

22 K. Caliskaner

Coach · Argirios Giannikis

Substitutes

33 · K. Broll

15 · A. Kamara

3 · A. Bauerle

7 · C. Rizzuto

10 · C. Kuhlwetter

8 · G. Gurpuz

19 · S. Vasiliadis

9 · K. Brunker

16 · Lee Seung-Joon

MSV Duisburg

3-4-3

1 M. Braune

29 J. Bitter

5 T. Fleckstein

40 B. Schlicke

20 N. Jessen

8 A. Casar

6 R. Bulic

3 F. Christensen

14 C. Noss

9 L. Lobinger

11 D. Kother

Coach · Dietmar Hirsch

Substitutes

33 · T. Stahl

43 · R. Haddou

27 · C. Coskun

17 · M. Besuschkow

19 · R. Safi

26 · F. Kruger

37 · P. Sussek

39 · P. Remmert

Our number · fc saarbrücken winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

43% The market37%

Us43%

~~Market~~37%

We make FC Saarbrücken a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc saarbrücken win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Saarbrücken win	43%	37%	+5
Draw	25%	26%	−1
MSV Duisburg win	32%	37%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	58%	58%	0
Both teams to score	61%	61%	0
Over 1.5 goals	81%	79%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	36%	36%	−1
FC Saarbrücken or draw	68%	63%	+4
FC Saarbrücken clean sheet	25%	–	–
MSV Duisburg clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.5 6.3 4.8 2.2 1 7.4 11.5 7.6 3.6 2 6.4 8.9 6.2 2.9 3 3.5 4.8 3.4 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Saarbrücken down, MSV Duisburg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,973 3. Liga matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Saarbrücken at home: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). MSV Duisburg away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for FC Saarbrücken, 1.40 for MSV Duisburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MSV 4–2 FCS · FCS 0–0 MSV · MSV 2–0 FCS · FCS 0–0 MSV

Form · last six in 3. Liga

FC SAARBRÜCKEN

LWLDWD2–4 · 6–1 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 0–0

MSV DUISBURG

WWLWWW3–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	8	+13	21
2	FC Viktoria Köln	8	+13	18
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	8	+4	15
4	Hansa Rostock	8	+2	15
5	FC Saarbrücken	8	+7	14
6	Hoffenheim II	8	+5	13
7	Waldhof Mannheim	8	+5	13
8	Preußen Münster	8	−1	12
9	Alemannia Aachen	8	0	11
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	8	−1	11
11	Verl	8	−3	11
12	Fortuna Köln	8	0	10
13	SSV Jahn Regensburg	8	+1	8
14	Stuttgart II	8	−3	8
15	FC Ingolstadt 04	8	−6	8
16	SV Wehen	8	−6	8
17	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	8	−7	8
18	Würzburger Kickers	8	−6	7
19	SV Meppen	8	−7	7
20	Havelse	8	−10	4