FC Ingolstadt 04 v SV Wehen prediction · 3. Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:05

FC Ingolstadt 04 2–4 SV Wehen FC INGOLSTADT 04 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Ingolstadt 04 win~~47%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.795

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.669

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Ingolstadt 04 win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Ingolstadt 04 47% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–29
1′KICK-OFF FC Ingolstadt 04 v SV Wehen
2′Little has changed for our model: FC Ingolstadt 04 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–29
6′PENALTY MISSED · 6' SV Wehen
23′SV Wehen ahead on 6′ through Marcus Muller. 0–0. 0–0 · 44–28–28
25′SV Wehen ahead on 6′ through Marcus Muller. 0–0. 0–0 · 44–29–28
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Jonas Scholz · FC Ingolstadt 04
45′HALF-TIME FC Ingolstadt 04 0–0 SV Wehen
46′SECOND HALF FC Ingolstadt 04 0–0 SV Wehen
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Frederik Carlsen · FC Ingolstadt 04
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' FC Ingolstadt 04 0–1 SV Wehen
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' FC Ingolstadt 04 0–1 SV Wehen · Florian Hübner
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' FC Ingolstadt 04 · On: benjamin kanuric · Off: Dennis Kaygin
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Max Brandt · SV Wehen
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' FC Ingolstadt 04 · On: Josef Ganda · Off: Nishan Velupillay
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' FC Ingolstadt 04 · On: Obed Chidindu Ugondu · Off: Frederik Carlsen
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Keanan Bennetts · FC Ingolstadt 04
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' FC Ingolstadt 04 0–2 SV Wehen · Florian Hübner
73′⚽ GOAL · 71' FC Ingolstadt 04 0–2 SV Wehen · Raul Paula
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' FC Ingolstadt 04 1–2 SV Wehen · Raul Paula
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' SV Wehen · On: Michael Schultz · Off: Fabian Greilinger Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' SV Wehen · On: Michael Schultz · Off: Raul Paula
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' SV Wehen · On: Moritz flotho · Off: Marcus Muller
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' SV Wehen · On: Robin Kalem · Off: Roberto Massimo
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC Ingolstadt 04 · On: Emre Gul · Off: Keanan Bennetts
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC Ingolstadt 04 · On: Lukas Fröde · Off: Vinko Sapina
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' FC Ingolstadt 04 2–2 SV Wehen · Michael Schultz
84′⚽ GOAL · 82' FC Ingolstadt 04 2–2 SV Wehen · Obed Chidindu Ugondu (assist Emre Gul)
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Yannick Deichmann · FC Ingolstadt 04
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' FC Ingolstadt 04 2–3 SV Wehen · Obed Chidindu Ugondu
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' FC Ingolstadt 04 2–3 SV Wehen · Robin Kalem
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' FC Ingolstadt 04 2–4 SV Wehen · Robin Kalem
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' FC Ingolstadt 04 2–4 SV Wehen · Gino Fechner
90′SUBSTITUTION · 93' SV Wehen · On: Niklas May · Off: Fabian Greilinger Corrected
FTFULL TIME FC Ingolstadt 04 2–4 SV Wehen
FTFC Ingolstadt 04 2–4 SV Wehen · FC Ingolstadt 04 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

FC Ingolstadt 04 win47%

Draw24%

SV Wehen win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:30

VenueAudi Sportpark

RefereeDavina Lutz

Line-ups

FC Ingolstadt 04

4-4-1-1

SV Wehen

4-4-1-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

FC Ingolstadt 04

SV Wehen

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	−4	8
19	SV Wehen	7	−8	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Ingolstadt 04

4-4-1-1

47 D. Klein

20 Y. Deichmann

6 G. Antzoulas

15 J. Scholz

19 L. Rosenlocher

18 K. Bennetts

8 F. Carlsen

41 V. Sapina

28 N. Velupillay

10 D. Kaygin

13 L. Lokotsch

Coach · Achim Beierlorzer

Substitutes

1 · M. Ponath

23 · J. Maljojoki

4 · E. Decker

34 · L. Frode

37 · B. Kanuric

5 · E. Gul

14 · M. Plath

16 · J. Ganda

17 · O. Ugondu

SV Wehen

4-4-1-1

16 F. Stritzel

17 B. Nink

19 F. Hubner

15 J. Janitzek

18 F. Greilinger

22 R. Massimo

37 M. Brandt

6 G. Fechner

32 R. Paula

7 L. Schleimer

21 M. Muller

Coach · Jochen Seitz

Substitutes

41 · F. Ludwig

5 · N. May

14 · M. Schultz

24 · T. Neubert

20 · A. Chaikhoun

10 · R. Kalem

8 · D. Bogicevic

45 · I. Allah

28 · M. Flotho

Our number · fc ingolstadt 04 winPublished 11 Oct 12:33

47% The market39%

Us47%

~~Market~~39%

We make FC Ingolstadt 04 a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc ingolstadt 04 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Ingolstadt 04 win	47%	39%	+8
Draw	24%	27%	−3
SV Wehen win	28%	34%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	59%	55%	+3
Both teams to score	60%	59%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	77%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	36%	35%	+1
FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw	72%	66%	+5
FC Ingolstadt 04 clean sheet	27%	–	–
SV Wehen clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.4 5.8 4.1 1 7.8 11.2 7.0 3.1 2 7.2 9.3 6.0 2.6 3 4.2 5.4 3.5 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Ingolstadt 04 down, SV Wehen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,970 3. Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.9% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 4.17 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). SV Wehen away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for FC Ingolstadt 04, 1.31 for SV Wehen. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 12:07. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.17

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SVW 2–1 FCI · FCI 0–0 SVW · FCI 2–3 SVW · SVW 2–5 FCI

Form · last six in 3. Liga

FC INGOLSTADT 04

DWLWLL1–1 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–3

SV WEHEN

LDDLWL0–4 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	8	+13	21
2	FC Viktoria Köln	7	+10	15
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	8	+4	15
4	Hansa Rostock	8	+2	15
5	FC Saarbrücken	8	+7	14
6	Hoffenheim II	8	+5	13
7	Waldhof Mannheim	8	+5	13
8	Preußen Münster	8	−1	12
9	Alemannia Aachen	7	+3	11
10	Fortuna Köln	8	0	10
11	Fortuna Düsseldorf	7	−1	10
12	Verl	7	−3	10
13	SSV Jahn Regensburg	8	+1	8
14	Stuttgart II	8	−3	8
15	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	−4	8
16	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	8	−7	8
17	Würzburger Kickers	8	−6	7
18	SV Meppen	8	−7	7
19	SV Wehen	7	−8	5
20	Havelse	8	−10	4