FC Ingolstadt 04 v Rot-Weiß Essen prediction · 3. Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

FC Ingolstadt 04 1–0 Rot-Weiß Essen FC INGOLSTADT 04 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Ingolstadt 04 win~~43%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.496

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.805

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Ingolstadt 04 win at 43%.
2′Much as we predicted: FC Ingolstadt 04 was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–23–34
2′KICK-OFF FC Ingolstadt 04 v Rot-Weiß Essen
10′🟨 YELLOW · 10' FC Ingolstadt 04
34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Ben Huning · Rot-Weiß Essen
34′SUBSTITUTION · 33' FC Ingolstadt 04 · On: Emre Gul · Off: Keanan Bennetts
39′Rot-Weiß Essen have had 10 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 37–31–31
45′HALF-TIME FC Ingolstadt 04 0–0 Rot-Weiß Essen
46′SECOND HALF FC Ingolstadt 04 0–0 Rot-Weiß Essen
48′We published FC Ingolstadt 04 at 43%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–9
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Ingolstadt 04 · On: Frederik Carlsen · Off: Nishan Velupillay
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' FC Ingolstadt 04 1–0 Rot-Weiß Essen
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' FC Ingolstadt 04 win: 43% at kick-off, 70% now
49′FC Ingolstadt 04 ahead on 47′ through Jonas Scholz. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–20–9
49′Rot-Weiß Essen have had 12 attempts to 7 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 71–20–9
57′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Franci Clarck Bouebari Kitsamoutse · Rot-Weiß Essen
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' FC Ingolstadt 04 win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Rot-Weiß Essen · On: Lucas Brumme · Off: Marvin Obuz
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Rot-Weiß Essen · On: Ekin Celebi · Off: Noah Pesch
62′We published FC Ingolstadt 04 at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' FC Ingolstadt 04 · On: Vinko Sapina · Off: Dennis Kaygin
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' FC Ingolstadt 04 · On: Josef Ganda · Off: benjamin kanuric
72′We published FC Ingolstadt 04 at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
74′Rot-Weiß Essen have had 16 attempts to 11 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–3
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Rot-Weiß Essen · On: Jaka Cuber Potocnik · Off: Franci Clarck Bouebari Kitsamoutse
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Rot-Weiß Essen · On: Michael Kostka · Off: Jannik Hofmann
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' FC Ingolstadt 04 win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
79′We published FC Ingolstadt 04 at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Dickson Abiama · Rot-Weiß Essen
83′We published FC Ingolstadt 04 at 43%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC Ingolstadt 04 · On: Obed Chidindu Ugondu · Off: Lars Lokotsch
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Rot-Weiß Essen · Dickson Abiama · Rot-Weiß Essen
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' FC Ingolstadt 04 win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
90′We published FC Ingolstadt 04 at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
93′Rot-Weiß Essen have had 20 attempts to 13 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 97–3–0
FTFULL TIME FC Ingolstadt 04 1–0 Rot-Weiß Essen
FTFC Ingolstadt 04 1–0 Rot-Weiß Essen · FC Ingolstadt 04 win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Ingolstadt 04 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Ingolstadt 04 43%, draw 23%, Rot-Weiß Essen 34%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on FC Ingolstadt 04 v Rot-Weiß EssenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FC Ingolstadt 04 win43%

Draw23%

Rot-Weiß Essen win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueAudi Sportpark

RefereeLennart Kernchen

Line-ups

FC Ingolstadt 04

4-4-2

Rot-Weiß Essen

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Ingolstadt 04

Rot-Weiß Essen

3Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · 3. Liga

Last match: 13 Oct · 3. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	9	+6	18
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	9	−3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Ingolstadt 04

4-4-2

47 D. Klein

34 L. Frode

6 G. Antzoulas

15 J. Scholz

19 L. Rosenlocher

18 K. Bennetts

14 M. Plath

37 B. Kanuric

28 N. Velupillay

13 L. Lokotsch

10 D. Kaygin

Coach · Achim Beierlorzer

Substitutes

1 · M. Ponath

20 · Y. Deichmann

4 · E. Decker

8 · F. Carlsen

41 · V. Sapina

5 · E. Gul

16 · J. Ganda

7 · Seo Jong-min

17 · O. Ugondu

Rot-Weiß Essen

4-2-3-1

1 J. Golz

15 B. Huning

23 J. Alonso

37 J. Hofmann

19 F. Bouebari

22 J. Sietan

11 N. Pesch

10 M. Obuz

17 S. Telalovic

18 D. Abiama

20 M. Janssen

Coach · Uwe Koschinat

Substitutes

35 · F. Wienand

26 · E. Celebi

32 · L. Bazzoli

2 · M. Kostka

36 · J. Gnagnon

16 · R. Reisig

9 · J. Potocnik

14 · L. Brumme

40 · R. Malaeb

Our number · fc ingolstadt 04 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:46 · locked at kick-off

43% The market28%

Us43%

~~Market~~28%

We make FC Ingolstadt 04 a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Ingolstadt 04 v Rot-Weiß Essen~~1.84 – 1.63

~~Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 18~~13 v 3

~~The market · FC Ingolstadt 04 win~~28% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Ingolstadt 04 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 28% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Ingolstadt 04 win	43%	28%	+15
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Rot-Weiß Essen win	34%	47%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	67%	63%	+4
Both teams to score	68%	65%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	83%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	46%	43%	+3
FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw	66%	53%	+13
FC Ingolstadt 04 clean sheet	20%	–	–
Rot-Weiß Essen clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.6 4.7 4.2 2.3 1 5.4 9.7 7.5 4.1 2 5.3 8.5 6.9 3.7 3 3.2 5.2 4.2 2.3 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Ingolstadt 04 down, Rot-Weiß Essen across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,984 3. Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.0% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.38 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home: 2.17 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Rot-Weiß Essen away: 1.83 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for FC Ingolstadt 04, 1.63 for Rot-Weiß Essen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.38

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ROT 4–1 FCI · FCI 1–2 ROT · ROT 2–0 FCI · FCI 2–2 ROT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 4 Sept

FC INGOLSTADT 04

LWLLLW0–3 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 2–4 · 3–0

ROT-WEISS ESSEN

WWWDDW1–0 · 6–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	9	+15	24
2	FC Viktoria Köln	9	+13	19
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	9	+6	18
4	Hansa Rostock	9	0	15
5	FC Saarbrücken	9	+5	14
6	Fortuna Düsseldorf	9	0	14
7	Stuttgart II	10	−1	14
8	Hoffenheim II	9	+4	13
9	Waldhof Mannheim	9	+2	13
10	Preußen Münster	9	−2	12
11	Verl	9	−3	12
12	Alemannia Aachen	9	−3	11
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	9	−3	11
14	SV Wehen	9	−3	11
15	Fortuna Köln	10	−3	10
16	SV Meppen	9	−5	10
17	SSV Jahn Regensburg	9	+1	9
18	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	9	−7	9
19	Würzburger Kickers	9	−6	8
20	Havelse	9	−10	5