FC Ingolstadt 04 v MSV Duisburg prediction · 3. Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

FC Ingolstadt 04 2–1 MSV Duisburg FC INGOLSTADT 04 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Ingolstadt 04 win~~41%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.529

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.727

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Ingolstadt 04 win at 41%.
2′Little has changed for our model: FC Ingolstadt 04 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–24–35
2′KICK-OFF FC Ingolstadt 04 v MSV Duisburg
3′We said FC Ingolstadt 04 at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–20–59
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' FC Ingolstadt 04 0–1 MSV Duisburg
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' FC Ingolstadt 04 win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' MSV Duisburg win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was FC Ingolstadt 04 win 41%)
5′MSV Duisburg score on 4′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 21–20–59
12′We said FC Ingolstadt 04 at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–20–60
19′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Max Plath · FC Ingolstadt 04
19′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Ben Schlicke · MSV Duisburg
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' FC Ingolstadt 04 1–1 MSV Duisburg
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' FC Ingolstadt 04 win: 41% at kick-off, 39% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' FC Ingolstadt 04 win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was MSV Duisburg win 61%)
22′FC Ingolstadt 04 level it on 22′ through Vinko Sapina. 1–1. 1–1 · 39–28–34
23′FC Ingolstadt 04 level it on 21′ through Vinko Sapina. 1–1. 1–1 · 39–28–34
34′🟥 RED CARD · 34' FC Ingolstadt 04
36′FC Ingolstadt 04 are down to ten from 34′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 36–32–32
38′SUBSTITUTION · 37' FC Ingolstadt 04 · On: Elias Decker · Off: Emre Gul
45′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–1 · 34–35–30
45′SECOND HALF FC Ingolstadt 04 1–1 MSV Duisburg
47′HALF-TIME FC Ingolstadt 04 1–1 MSV Duisburg
49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' MSV Duisburg · On: Florian Krüger · Off: Ben Schlicke
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was FC Ingolstadt 04 win 35%)
51′We said FC Ingolstadt 04 at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 2–1 · 71–21–8
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' FC Ingolstadt 04 2–1 MSV Duisburg
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' FC Ingolstadt 04 win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' FC Ingolstadt 04 win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 38%)
52′Frederik Carlsen scores for FC Ingolstadt 04 on 51′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 71–21–8
62′We said FC Ingolstadt 04 at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–20–5
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FC Ingolstadt 04 · On: Obed Chidindu Ugondu · Off: Lars Lokotsch
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FC Ingolstadt 04 · On: Dennis Kaygin · Off: Nishan Velupillay
69′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Martin Ens · MSV Duisburg
72′We said FC Ingolstadt 04 at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' FC Ingolstadt 04 win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' MSV Duisburg · On: Can Coskun · Off: Martin Ens
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' MSV Duisburg · On: Patrick Sussek · Off: Frederik Christensen
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' MSV Duisburg · On: Peter Remmert · Off: Dominik Kother
78′We said FC Ingolstadt 04 at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' FC Ingolstadt 04 · On: Yannick Deichmann · Off: Frederik Carlsen
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Ingolstadt 04 · On: Benjamin Kanuric · Off: Vinko Sapina
83′We said FC Ingolstadt 04 at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' MSV Duisburg · On: Max Besuschkow · Off: Rasim Bulic
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' FC Ingolstadt 04 win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
90′We said FC Ingolstadt 04 at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
94′2–1 at the end. Our 41% on FC Ingolstadt 04 comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME FC Ingolstadt 04 2–1 MSV Duisburg
FTFC Ingolstadt 04 2–1 MSV Duisburg · FC Ingolstadt 04 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Ingolstadt 04 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Ingolstadt 04 41%, draw 24%, MSV Duisburg 35%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on FC Ingolstadt 04 v MSV DuisburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

FC Ingolstadt 04 win41%

Draw24%

MSV Duisburg win35%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueAudi Sportpark

RefereeLukas Benen

Line-ups

FC Ingolstadt 04

4-1-4-1

MSV Duisburg

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Ingolstadt 04

MSV Duisburg

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. Liga

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Ingolstadt 04

4-1-4-1

47 D. Klein

14 Max Plath

6 G. Antzoulas

15 J. Scholz

19 L. Rosenlöcher

34 L. Fröde

5 Emre Gül

8 F. Carlsen

41 V. Šapina

28 N. Velupillay

13 L. Lokotsch

Coach · A. Beierlorzer

Substitutes

17 · O. Ugondu

16 · J. Ganda

20 · Y. Deichmann

4 · Elias Decker

37 · B. Kanurić

10 · D. Kaygin

23 · J. Maljojoki

1 · M. Ponath

7 · Seo Jong-Min

MSV Duisburg

5-4-1

1 M. Braune

29 J. Bitter

4 Martin Ens

5 T. Fleckstein

40 B. Schlicke

3 F. Christensen

14 C. Noß

6 R. Bulić

8 A. Casar

11 D. Kother

9 L. Lobinger

Coach · D. Hirsch

Substitutes

27 · C. Coşkun

43 · R. Haddou

20 · N. Jessen

26 · F. Krüger

39 · P. Remmert

19 · Ramien Safi

33 · T. Stahl

17 · M. Besuschkow

37 · P. Sussek

Our number · fc ingolstadt 04 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

41% The market31%

Us41%

~~Market~~31%

We make FC Ingolstadt 04 a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Ingolstadt 04 v MSV Duisburg~~1.70 – 1.56

~~Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 25~~9 v 1

~~The market · FC Ingolstadt 04 win~~31% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Ingolstadt 04 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Ingolstadt 04 win	41%	31%	+10
Draw	24%	26%	−2
MSV Duisburg win	35%	43%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	63%	60%	+3
Both teams to score	64%	62%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	84%	80%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	41%	39%	+2
FC Ingolstadt 04 or draw	65%	57%	+8
FC Ingolstadt 04 clean sheet	21%	–	–
MSV Duisburg clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.5 5.6 4.7 2.5 1 6.2 10.6 7.9 4.1 2 5.6 8.5 6.6 3.4 3 3.2 4.8 3.7 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Ingolstadt 04 down, MSV Duisburg across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,994 3. Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Ingolstadt 04 at home: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). MSV Duisburg away: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for FC Ingolstadt 04, 1.56 for MSV Duisburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~FCI 0–0 MSV · MSV 2–1 FCI · FCI 2–0 MSV · MSV 1–2 FCI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 12 Sept

FC INGOLSTADT 04

WLLLWW1–0 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 2–4 · 3–0 · 1–0

MSV DUISBURG

LWWWWD1–2 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 4–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	10	+15	25
2	Rot-Weiß Essen	11	+6	21
3	FC Viktoria Köln	10	+13	20
4	FC Saarbrücken	10	+7	17
5	Hoffenheim II	10	+5	16
6	Hansa Rostock	10	−2	15
7	Stuttgart II	10	−1	14
8	Alemannia Aachen	10	−1	14
9	FC Ingolstadt 04	10	−2	14
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	10	−2	14
11	Waldhof Mannheim	10	0	13
12	Preußen Münster	10	−3	12
13	SV Wehen	10	−3	12
14	Verl	10	−4	12
15	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	10	−6	12
16	Würzburger Kickers	10	−4	11
17	SV Meppen	10	−5	11
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	11	0	10
19	Fortuna Köln	10	−3	10
20	Havelse	10	−10	6