Alemannia Aachen v Hansa Rostock prediction · 3. Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Alemannia Aachen 2–0 Hansa Rostock ALEMANNIA AACHEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alemannia Aachen win~~41%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.527

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.623

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alemannia Aachen win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Alemannia Aachen was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–24–35
1′KICK-OFF Alemannia Aachen v Hansa Rostock
8′Alemannia Aachen find the net on 8′. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–18–16
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Alemannia Aachen 1–0 Hansa Rostock
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Alemannia Aachen win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
9′We published Alemannia Aachen at 41%. Our model now makes it 66%. 1–0 · 66–19–16
27′We published Alemannia Aachen at 41%. Our model now makes it 87%. 2–0 · 87–9–4
27′Lukas Scepanik scores for Alemannia Aachen on 27′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 87–9–4
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Alemannia Aachen 2–0 Hansa Rostock
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Alemannia Aachen win: 41% at kick-off, 87% now
28′Lukas Scepanik scores for Alemannia Aachen on 26′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 87–9–4
29′🟨 YELLOW · 27' David Kopacz · Hansa Rostock
30′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Dylan Leonard · Alemannia Aachen
41′We published Alemannia Aachen at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
45′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 2–0 · 91–7–2
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Alemannia Aachen win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
45′HALF-TIME Alemannia Aachen 2–0 Hansa Rostock
45′SECOND HALF Alemannia Aachen 2–0 Hansa Rostock
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Hansa Rostock · On: Maximilian Krauss · Off: Leon Dajaku
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Petros Bagalianis · Alemannia Aachen
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Benno Dietze · Hansa Rostock
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Louis Köster · Alemannia Aachen
62′We published Alemannia Aachen at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Hansa Rostock · On: Andreas Voglsammer · Off: Benno Dietze Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Hansa Rostock · On: Yannick Michaelis · Off: David Kopacz Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Alemannia Aachen · On: Daniel Starodid · Off: Louis Köster
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Hansa Rostock · On: Jonas Dirkner · Off: Ouassim Karada Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Alemannia Aachen · On: Fabio Torsiello · Off: Lukas Scepanik
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Georg Ermolaev · Alemannia Aachen
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Alemannia Aachen · On: Kacper Koscierski · Off: Matti Wagner
84′We published Alemannia Aachen at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Danilo Wiebe · Alemannia Aachen
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Hansa Rostock · On: Milosz Brzozowski · Off: Niklas Kolle
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Alemannia Aachen · On: meiko waschenbach · Off: Mehdi Loune
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Alemannia Aachen · On: Ken Eghosa Gideon Izekor · Off: Georg Ermolaev
95′🟥 RED CARD · 90+5' Hansa Rostock
FTFULL TIME Alemannia Aachen 2–0 Hansa Rostock
FTAlemannia Aachen 2–0 Hansa Rostock · Alemannia Aachen win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alemannia Aachen are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alemannia Aachen 41%, draw 24%, Hansa Rostock 35%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Alemannia Aachen v Hansa RostockBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Alemannia Aachen win41%

Draw24%

Hansa Rostock win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueTivoli

RefereeEric-Dominic Weisbach

Line-ups

Alemannia Aachen

3-4-3

Hansa Rostock

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alemannia Aachen

Hansa Rostock

3Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · 3. Liga

Last match: 13 Oct · 3. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Hansa Rostock	9	0	15
12	Alemannia Aachen	9	−3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Alemannia Aachen

3-4-3

1 M. Riemann

37 J. Kiala

4 D. Leonard

2 P. Bagkalianis

7 L. Scepanik

28 D. Wiebe

10 M. Loune

3 M. Wagner

8 L. Koster

27 M. Schroers

20 G. Ermolaev

Coach · Mersad Selimbegovic

Substitutes

23 · S. Bajic

15 · M. Hanraths

17 · F. Torsiello

29 · K. Koscierski

11 · M. Waschenbach

19 · N. Bitumazala

30 · J. von der Hitz

9 · D. Starodid

18 · K. Izekor

Hansa Rostock

4-2-3-1

1 L. Unbehaun

3 F. Bohnert

15 A. Gurleyen

17 F. Carstens

32 N. Kolle

42 B. Dietze

4 K. Fatkic

8 O. Karada

27 D. Kopacz

43 L. Dajaku

11 E. Holten

Coach · Andre Breitenreiter

Substitutes

25 · P. Klewin

23 · F. Pfanne

37 · M. Brzozowski

22 · L. Reichardt

6 · J. Dirkner

35 · M. Krauss

7 · B. Lennemann

41 · Y. Michaelis

9 · A. Voglsammer

Our number · alemannia aachen winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:46 · locked at kick-off

41% The market36%

Us41%

~~Market~~36%

We make Alemannia Aachen a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alemannia Aachen v Hansa Rostock~~1.68 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 15~~12 v 4

~~The market · Alemannia Aachen win~~36% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alemannia Aachen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alemannia Aachen win	41%	36%	+5
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Hansa Rostock win	35%	38%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	62%	61%	+1
Both teams to score	64%	63%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	81%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	40%	41%	−1
Alemannia Aachen or draw	65%	62%	+3
Alemannia Aachen clean sheet	22%	–	–
Hansa Rostock clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.6 5.8 4.8 2.4 1 6.4 10.8 7.8 4.0 2 5.7 8.6 6.5 3.4 3 3.2 4.8 3.7 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alemannia Aachen down, Hansa Rostock across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,984 3. Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.0% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alemannia Aachen at home: 2.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hansa Rostock away: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Alemannia Aachen, 1.53 for Hansa Rostock. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ALE 1–1 HAN · HAN 2–2 ALE · ALE 2–1 HAN · HAN 1–2 ALE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Liga this season · since 4 Sept

ALEMANNIA AACHEN

WDLWLL3–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–5 · 0–3

HANSA ROSTOCK

DLWDWL1–1 · 0–4 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	9	+15	24
2	FC Viktoria Köln	9	+13	19
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	9	+6	18
4	Hansa Rostock	9	0	15
5	FC Saarbrücken	9	+5	14
6	Fortuna Düsseldorf	9	0	14
7	Stuttgart II	10	−1	14
8	Hoffenheim II	9	+4	13
9	Waldhof Mannheim	9	+2	13
10	Preußen Münster	9	−2	12
11	Verl	9	−3	12
12	Alemannia Aachen	9	−3	11
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	9	−3	11
14	SV Wehen	9	−3	11
15	Fortuna Köln	10	−3	10
16	SV Meppen	9	−5	10
17	SSV Jahn Regensburg	9	+1	9
18	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	9	−7	9
19	Würzburger Kickers	9	−6	8
20	Havelse	9	−10	5