Alemannia Aachen v FC Viktoria Köln prediction · 3. Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Alemannia Aachen 2–5 FC Viktoria Köln ALEMANNIA AACHEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alemannia Aachen win~~46%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.777

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.675

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alemannia Aachen win at 46%.
2′Much as we predicted: Alemannia Aachen was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–24–29
4′Much as we predicted: Alemannia Aachen was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–25–29
19′Yannick Aime Tonye scores for FC Viktoria Köln on 11′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 7–13–80
21′21′ and it is 1–2: Lucas Wolf on the scoresheet for FC Viktoria Köln. 1–2 · 20–24–57
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Alemannia Aachen win: 46% at kick-off, 20% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Alemannia Aachen win: 46% at kick-off, 7% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Alemannia Aachen win: 46% at kick-off, 7% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Alemannia Aachen win: 46% at kick-off, 20% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Alemannia Aachen win: 46% at kick-off, 20% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Alemannia Aachen win: 46% at kick-off, 7% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Alemannia Aachen win: 46% at kick-off, 7% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Alemannia Aachen win: 46% at kick-off, 20% now
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Alemannia Aachen 1–3 FC Viktoria Köln · Lukas Scepanik
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Alemannia Aachen 1–4 FC Viktoria Köln · Lukas Scepanik
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Alemannia Aachen 1–4 FC Viktoria Köln · Tim kloss
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Alemannia Aachen win: 46% at kick-off, 7% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' FC Viktoria Köln win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Alemannia Aachen win 7%)
40′⚽ GOAL · 41' Alemannia Aachen 1–4 FC Viktoria Köln · David Otto
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Alemannia Aachen win: 46% at kick-off, 7% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' FC Viktoria Köln win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Alemannia Aachen win 7%)
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Tobias Eisenhuth · FC Viktoria Köln
45′SECOND HALF Alemannia Aachen 1–4 FC Viktoria Köln
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Meiko Sponsel · FC Viktoria Köln
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Alemannia Aachen 1–5 FC Viktoria Köln · David Otto
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Alemannia Aachen 1–5 FC Viktoria Köln · Niklas Horst Castelle
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Kilian Jakob · Off: Yannick Aime Tonye
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Noah Maboulou · Off: Niklas Horst Castelle
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Alemannia Aachen · On: Ken Eghosa Gideon Izekor · Off: Mika Schroers
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Alemannia Aachen · On: Dylan Leonard · Off: Danilo Wiebe
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Alemannia Aachen · On: Daniel Starodid · Off: Louis Köster
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Mehdi Loune · Alemannia Aachen
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Alemannia Aachen · On: meiko waschenbach · Off: Mehdi Loune
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Niklas Jahn · Off: Lucas Wolf
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Niklas Jahn · Off: Lucas Wolf
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Alemannia Aachen · On: Kacper Koscierski · Off: Petros Bagalianis
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FC Viktoria Köln · On: Jason Amann · Off: Taylan Duman
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Alemannia Aachen 2–5 FC Viktoria Köln · Niklas Horst Castelle
FTFULL TIME Alemannia Aachen 2–5 FC Viktoria Köln
FTAlemannia Aachen 2–5 FC Viktoria Köln · Alemannia Aachen win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Alemannia Aachen win46%

Draw25%

FC Viktoria Köln win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:30

VenueTivoli

RefereeAssad Nouhoum

Line-ups

Alemannia Aachen

3-4-2-1

FC Viktoria Köln

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Alemannia Aachen

FC Viktoria Köln

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	FC Viktoria Köln	7	+10	15
9	Alemannia Aachen	7	+3	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Alemannia Aachen

3-4-2-1

1 M. Riemann

37 J. Kiala

28 D. Wiebe

2 P. Bagkalianis

7 L. Scepanik

10 M. Loune

8 L. Koster

3 M. Wagner

20 G. Ermolaev

17 F. Torsiello

27 M. Schroers

Coach · Mersad Selimbegovic

Substitutes

22 · T. Hendriks

4 · D. Leonard

15 · M. Hanraths

29 · K. Koscierski

11 · M. Waschenbach

30 · J. von der Hitz

38 · V. Sulejmani

9 · D. Starodid

18 · K. Izekor

FC Viktoria Köln

4-2-3-1

1 A. Schulz

19 M. Sponsel

6 T. Eisenhuth

18 T. Kloss

7 Y. Tonye

8 T. Duman

20 N. Swider

28 P. Fallmann

44 N. H. Castelle

21 L. M. Wolf

10 D. Otto

Coach · Marian Wilhelm

Substitutes

12 · D. Wyciok

24 · J. Amann

26 · K. Jakob

11 · E. B. Gueye

22 · V. Boboy

16 · N. Jahn

17 · M. Pledl

9 · J. Sachse

37 · N. Maboulou

Our number · alemannia aachen winPublished 11 Oct 15:30

46% The market41%

Us46%

~~Market~~41%

We make Alemannia Aachen a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · alemannia aachen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alemannia Aachen win	46%	41%	+5
Draw	25%	25%	−1
FC Viktoria Köln win	29%	34%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	57%	63%	−6
Both teams to score	59%	65%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	80%	82%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	42%	−8
Alemannia Aachen or draw	71%	66%	+4
Alemannia Aachen clean sheet	28%	–	–
FC Viktoria Köln clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 5.8 6.2 4.3 1 8.2 11.6 7.1 3.1 2 7.2 9.2 5.9 2.6 3 4.1 5.2 3.3 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alemannia Aachen down, FC Viktoria Köln across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,970 3. Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.9% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alemannia Aachen at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). FC Viktoria Köln away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Alemannia Aachen, 1.29 for FC Viktoria Köln. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 15:27. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FCV 0–3 ALE · ALE 0–3 FCV · FCV 3–1 ALE · ALE 1–0 FCV

Form · last six in 3. Liga

ALEMANNIA AACHEN

DLWDLW1–1 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

FC VIKTORIA KÖLN

WWLWWW3–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 3–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	MSV Duisburg	8	+13	21
2	FC Viktoria Köln	7	+10	15
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	8	+4	15
4	Hansa Rostock	8	+2	15
5	FC Saarbrücken	8	+7	14
6	Hoffenheim II	8	+5	13
7	Waldhof Mannheim	8	+5	13
8	Preußen Münster	8	−1	12
9	Alemannia Aachen	7	+3	11
10	Fortuna Köln	8	0	10
11	Fortuna Düsseldorf	7	−1	10
12	Verl	7	−3	10
13	SSV Jahn Regensburg	8	+1	8
14	Stuttgart II	8	−3	8
15	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	−4	8
16	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	8	−7	8
17	Würzburger Kickers	8	−6	7
18	SV Meppen	8	−7	7
19	SV Wehen	7	−8	5
20	Havelse	8	−10	4