VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Heidenheim prediction · 2. Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

VfL Wolfsburg 3–1 1. FC Heidenheim VFL WOLFSBURG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said VfL Wolfsburg win~~45%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.461

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.295

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said VfL Wolfsburg win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Heidenheim
2′We said VfL Wolfsburg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–17–16
2′A goal for VfL Wolfsburg on 1′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–17–16
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' VfL Wolfsburg 1–0 1. FC Heidenheim
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' VfL Wolfsburg win: 45% at kick-off, 68% now
12′Little has changed for our model: VfL Wolfsburg 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 1–1 · 44–24–32
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 1. FC Heidenheim
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' VfL Wolfsburg win: 45% at kick-off, 44% now
13′GOAL DISALLOWED · 13' 1. FC Heidenheim
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' VfL Wolfsburg win: 45% at kick-off, 68% now
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 1. FC Heidenheim
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' VfL Wolfsburg win: 45% at kick-off, 42% now
23′21′: Patrick Mainka on the scoresheet for 1. FC Heidenheim, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 42–27–31
29′1. FC Heidenheim have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 41–28–31
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Hauke Wahl · VfL Wolfsburg
35′12 shots for 1. FC Heidenheim, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 40–30–30
42′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–1 · 38–32–29
45′VfL Wolfsburg ahead on 45′ through Robert Glatzel. 2–1. 2–1 · 71–20–9
45′SECOND HALF VfL Wolfsburg 2–1 1. FC Heidenheim
46′We said VfL Wolfsburg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 2–1 · 71–20–9
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' VfL Wolfsburg 2–1 1. FC Heidenheim
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' VfL Wolfsburg win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
46′HALF-TIME VfL Wolfsburg 2–1 1. FC Heidenheim
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' 1. FC Heidenheim · On: Marcel Costly · Off: Christian Conteh
52′16 shots for 1. FC Heidenheim, 8 the other way, and they still trail 2–1. 2–1 · 72–20–8
60′We said VfL Wolfsburg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–19–6
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Timon Wellenreuther · VfL Wolfsburg
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' VfL Wolfsburg win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
64′We said VfL Wolfsburg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
64′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Fabian Reese · VfL Wolfsburg
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' VfL Wolfsburg 3–1 1. FC Heidenheim
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' VfL Wolfsburg win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
65′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 95–4–1
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' VfL Wolfsburg · On: Elvis Rexhbecaj · Off: Yannick Gerhardt
66′Muhammed Damar scores for VfL Wolfsburg on 65′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 96–4–1
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' 1. FC Heidenheim · On: Mathias Honsak · Off: Julian niehues
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Michael Heule · 1. FC Heidenheim
71′20 shots for 1. FC Heidenheim, 12 the other way, and they still trail 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' 1. FC Heidenheim · On: Yannik Wagner · Off: Paul Hennrich
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' VfL Wolfsburg · On: Alessio Besio · Off: Fabian Reese
84′We said VfL Wolfsburg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Alessio Besio · VfL Wolfsburg
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' VfL Wolfsburg · On: Bence Dárdai · Off: Alexander Bernhardsson
91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' VfL Wolfsburg · On: Kento Shiogai · Off: Muhammed Damar
91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' 1. FC Heidenheim · On: Tim Siersleben · Off: Marcel Costly Corrected
92′SUBSTITUTION · 89' 1. FC Heidenheim · On: Tim Siersleben · Off: Mikkel Kaufmann
93′3–1 at the end. Our 45% on VfL Wolfsburg comes in. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME VfL Wolfsburg 3–1 1. FC Heidenheim
FTVfL Wolfsburg 3–1 1. FC Heidenheim · VfL Wolfsburg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

VfL Wolfsburg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: VfL Wolfsburg 45%, draw 23%, 1. FC Heidenheim 33%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC HeidenheimBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

VfL Wolfsburg win45%

Draw23%

1. FC Heidenheim win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueVolkswagen Arena

RefereeTom Bauer

Line-ups

VfL Wolfsburg

4-3-3

1. FC Heidenheim

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

VfL Wolfsburg

1. FC Heidenheim

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

Last match: 9 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	1. FC Heidenheim	7	+2	14
5	VfL Wolfsburg	7	+7	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

VfL Wolfsburg

4-3-3

1 T. Wellenreuther

26 S. Kumbedi

6 H. Wahl

33 Cleiton

21 J. Maehle

31 Y. Gerhardt

5 Vini Souza

20 M. Damar

17 A. Bernhardsson

19 R. Glatzel

11 F. Reese

Coach · Tobias Strobl

Substitutes

30 · J. Zielinski

2 · K. Fischer

22 · M. Angely

18 · J. Adjetey

27 · M. Arnold

37 · E. Rexhbecaj

8 · B. Dardai

23 · A. Besio

7 · K. Shiogai

1. FC Heidenheim

4-4-2

33 T. Dahne

22 O. Mhamdi

6 P. Mainka

19 J. Fohrenbach

27 M. Heule

8 P. Hennrich

3 J. Schoppner

16 J. Niehues

10 C. Conteh

29 M. Kaufmann

18 A. Vogt

Coach · Frank Schmidt

Substitutes

1 · F. Feller

4 · T. Siersleben

28 · A. Kolle

20 · L. Kerber

41 · M. Zrilic

24 · M. Costly

38 · Y. Wagner

17 · M. Honsak

Our number · vfl wolfsburg winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market56%

Us45%

~~Market~~56%

We make VfL Wolfsburg a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Heidenheim~~1.89 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 15 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 14~~5 v 3

~~The market · VfL Wolfsburg win~~56% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · VfL Wolfsburg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 52% to 56% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
VfL Wolfsburg win	45%	56%	−11
Draw	23%	23%	0
1. FC Heidenheim win	33%	21%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	67%	71%	−4
Both teams to score	67%	68%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	86%	87%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	45%	51%	−6
VfL Wolfsburg or draw	67%	79%	−12
VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet	21%	–	–
1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.8 4.7 4.0 2.2 1 5.5 9.6 7.2 3.8 2 5.5 8.5 6.6 3.5 3 3.5 5.4 4.2 2.2 4 2.6 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+VfL Wolfsburg down, 1. FC Heidenheim across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,605 2. Bundesliga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

VfL Wolfsburg at home: 3.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for VfL Wolfsburg, 1.58 for 1. FC Heidenheim. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~VFL 1–1 FCH · FCH 1–3 VFL · VFL 0–1 FCH · FCH 1–3 VFL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 15 Aug

VFL WOLFSBURG

WWDLWD1–0 · 5–2 · 4–4 · 0–1 · 5–1 · 4–4

1. FC HEIDENHEIM

LWWWDD1–4 · 5–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	8	+11	22
2	1. FC Nürnberg	8	+10	18
3	1. FC Heidenheim	7	+2	14
4	1. FC Magdeburg	7	+5	13
5	VfL Wolfsburg	7	+7	12
6	1. FC Kaiserslautern	7	+2	12
7	FC St. Pauli	7	+2	10
8	Energie Cottbus	8	−1	9
9	Arminia Bielefeld	7	−1	8
10	VfL Osnabrück	7	−3	8
11	Eintracht Braunschweig	7	0	7
12	VfL Bochum	7	−2	7
13	Hannover 96	7	−5	7
14	SV Darmstadt 98	7	−6	7
15	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	7	−3	6
16	Holstein Kiel	8	−4	5
17	Dynamo Dresden	7	−6	5
18	Karlsruher SC	7	−8	5