VfL Osnabrück v SpVgg Greuther Fürth prediction · 2. Bundesliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VfL OsnabrückDrawSpVgg Greuther Fürth

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · VfL Osnabrück 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

VfL Osnabrück are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: VfL Osnabrück 40%, draw 25%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 35%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on VfL Osnabrück v SpVgg Greuther FürthBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

VfL Osnabrück win40%

Draw25%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueStadion an der Bremer Brücke

RefereeJustin Joel Hasmann

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

VfL Osnabrück

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	8	−1	9
12	VfL Osnabrück	8	−4	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vfl osnabrück winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market42%

Us40%

~~Market~~42%

We make VfL Osnabrück a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · VfL Osnabrück v SpVgg Greuther Fürth~~1.58 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 9~~12 v 10

~~The market · VfL Osnabrück win~~42% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · VfL Osnabrück win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
VfL Osnabrück win	40%	42%	−2
Draw	25%	26%	−1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth win	35%	33%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	59%	59%	0
Both teams to score	61%	62%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	81%	0
Over 3.5 goals	37%	39%	−2
VfL Osnabrück or draw	65%	67%	−2
VfL Osnabrück clean sheet	23%	–	–
SpVgg Greuther Fürth clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.4 6.4 5.2 2.6 1 6.9 11.4 8.0 3.9 2 5.9 8.5 6.2 3.1 3 3.1 4.5 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+VfL Osnabrück down, SpVgg Greuther Fürth across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,614 2. Bundesliga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

VfL Osnabrück at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for VfL Osnabrück, 1.48 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VFL 2–0 SPV · SPV 4–0 VFL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 28 Aug

VFL OSNABRÜCK

WWLDDL1–0 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

SPVGG GREUTHER FÜRTH

WLDDLW4–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	9	+12	25
2	1. FC Nürnberg	8	+10	18
3	VfL Wolfsburg	9	+9	16
4	1. FC Magdeburg	9	+8	16
5	1. FC Kaiserslautern	8	+4	15
6	1. FC Heidenheim	9	0	15
7	FC St. Pauli	9	+2	12
8	Arminia Bielefeld	9	−1	11
9	Energie Cottbus	9	−1	10
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	8	−1	9
11	Dynamo Dresden	8	−4	8
12	VfL Osnabrück	8	−4	8
13	VfL Bochum	9	−4	8
14	Hannover 96	8	−5	8
15	Karlsruher SC	9	−9	8
16	SV Darmstadt 98	9	−10	8
17	Eintracht Braunschweig	8	−2	7
18	Holstein Kiel	8	−4	5