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VfL Osnabrück v Dynamo Dresden

VfL Osnabrück

1–1Full time

Dynamo Dresden

2. Bundesliga · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion an der Bremer Brücke

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

VfL Osnabrück 1–1 Dynamo Dresden DYNAMO DRESDEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Dynamo Dresden win~~39%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.852

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.828

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dynamo Dresden win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dynamo Dresden was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 37–24–39
1′KICK-OFF VfL Osnabrück v Dynamo Dresden
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' VfL Osnabrück 0–1 Dynamo Dresden
37′⚽ GOAL · 38' VfL Osnabrück 0–1 Dynamo Dresden
38′A goal for Dynamo Dresden on 39′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–21–67
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Dynamo Dresden win: 39% at kick-off, 67% now
40′Niklas Hauptmann scores for Dynamo Dresden on 38′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–21–68
42′We published Dynamo Dresden at 39%. Our model now makes it 68%. 0–1 · 10–22–68
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Dynamo Dresden win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
45′SECOND HALF VfL Osnabrück 0–1 Dynamo Dresden
46′HALF-TIME VfL Osnabrück 0–1 Dynamo Dresden
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Robin Meißner · VfL Osnabrück
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' VfL Osnabrück · On: Leon Maximilian Flach · Off: Fridolin Wagner
50′We published Dynamo Dresden at 39%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 8–21–70
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' VfL Osnabrück · On: Konrad Faber · Off: Patrick Kammerbauer
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' VfL Osnabrück · On: Ismail Badjie · Off: Jonathan Gómez
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' VfL Osnabrück · On: Daniel-Kofi Kyereh · Off: Bernd Riesselmann
64′We published Dynamo Dresden at 39%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Nicolai Rapp · Dynamo Dresden
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Dynamo Dresden · On: Christoph Daferner · Off: Vincent Vermeij
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Dynamo Dresden win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Jonas Sterner · Dynamo Dresden
73′We published Dynamo Dresden at 39%. Our model now makes it 81%. 0–1 · 3–17–81
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Robin Fabinski · VfL Osnabrück
78′We published Dynamo Dresden at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 1–14–85
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Patrice Čović · Dynamo Dresden
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Simon Straudi · Dynamo Dresden
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' VfL Osnabrück · On: Luca Raimund · Off: Bjarke Jacobsen
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Dynamo Dresden · On: Jakob Lemmer · Off: Niklas Hauptmann
83′We published Dynamo Dresden at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Dynamo Dresden win: 39% at kick-off, 90% now
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Konrad Faber · VfL Osnabrück
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' VfL Osnabrück 1–1 Dynamo Dresden · Niklas Hauptmann
87′We said Dynamo Dresden at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 1–1 · 5–90–5
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' VfL Osnabrück 1–1 Dynamo Dresden · Niklas Hauptmann
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Dynamo Dresden win: 39% at kick-off, 5% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Dynamo Dresden win 5%)
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' VfL Osnabrück 1–1 Dynamo Dresden · Robin Fabinski
88′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Dynamo Dresden · On: Kennedy Okpala · Off: Patrice Čović
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Dynamo Dresden · On: Ahmet Muhamedbegovic · Off: Ben Bobzien
90′87′ and it is 1–1: Robin Fabinski on the scoresheet for VfL Osnabrück. 1–1 · 0–100–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Dynamo Dresden · On: Alexander Rossipal · Off: Simon Straudi
91′We said Dynamo Dresden at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 1–1 · 0–100–0
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Leon Maximilian Flach · VfL Osnabrück
FTFULL TIME VfL Osnabrück 1–1 Dynamo Dresden
FTVfL Osnabrück 1–1 Dynamo Dresden · Dynamo Dresden win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

VfL Osnabrück win37%

Draw25%

Dynamo Dresden win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

Venue · Stadion an der Bremer Brücke

Referee · Florian Exner

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

VfL Osnabrück

3-5-2

32 J. Krumrey

27 R. Fabinski

24 J. Muller

25 N. Wiemann

31 P. Kammerbauer

21 A. Beck

15 B. Jacobsen

26 F. Wagner

42 Jogo

22 B. Riesselmann

11 R. Meissner

Coach · Timo Schultz

Substitutes

1 · N. Sauter

20 · T. Janotta

4 · J. Abu Hanna

28 · K. Faber

18 · L. Flach

8 · L. Munst

10 · I. Badjie

7 · D. Kyereh

17 · L. Raimund

Dynamo Dresden

4-2-3-1

22 L. Grill

32 J. Sterner

6 N. Rapp

42 F. Muller

44 S. Straudi

18 R. Wagner

21 T. Raschl

24 P. Covic

27 N. Hauptmann

20 B. Bobzien

9 V. Vermeij

Coach · Thomas Stamm

Substitutes

1 · T. Schreiber

19 · A. Rossipal

17 · A. Muhamedbegovic

34 · T. Neininger

8 · L. Herrmann

33 · C. Daferner

10 · J. Lemmer

7 · K. Okpala

11 · K. Inanoglu

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

VfL Osnabrück

3-5-2

32 J. Krumrey

27 R. Fabinski

24 J. Muller

25 N. Wiemann

31 P. Kammerbauer

21 A. Beck

15 B. Jacobsen

26 F. Wagner

42 Jogo

22 B. Riesselmann

11 R. Meissner

Coach · Timo Schultz

Substitutes

1 · N. Sauter

20 · T. Janotta

4 · J. Abu Hanna

28 · K. Faber

18 · L. Flach

8 · L. Munst

10 · I. Badjie

7 · D. Kyereh

17 · L. Raimund

Dynamo Dresden

4-2-3-1

22 L. Grill

32 J. Sterner

6 N. Rapp

42 F. Muller

44 S. Straudi

18 R. Wagner

21 T. Raschl

24 P. Covic

27 N. Hauptmann

20 B. Bobzien

9 V. Vermeij

Coach · Thomas Stamm

Substitutes

1 · T. Schreiber

19 · A. Rossipal

17 · A. Muhamedbegovic

34 · T. Neininger

8 · L. Herrmann

33 · C. Daferner

10 · J. Lemmer

7 · K. Okpala

11 · K. Inanoglu

Our number · dynamo dresden winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

39% The market39%

Us39%

~~Market~~39%

We make Dynamo Dresden a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.6.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
VfL Osnabrück win	37%	36%	+1
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Dynamo Dresden win	39%	39%	0
Over 2.5 goals	59%	61%	−2
Both teams to score	61%	64%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	81%	0
Over 3.5 goals	37%	40%	−3
VfL Osnabrück or draw	61%	61%	0
VfL Osnabrück clean sheet	21%	–	–
Dynamo Dresden clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.2 6.9 5.7 3.0 1 6.6 11.2 8.3 4.4 2 5.3 8.1 6.3 3.3 3 2.7 4.1 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+VfL Osnabrück down, Dynamo Dresden across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,596 2. Bundesliga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

VfL Osnabrück at home: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Dynamo Dresden away: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for VfL Osnabrück, 1.56 for Dynamo Dresden. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 11:37. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga

VFL OSNABRÜCK

LLWWLD3–4 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 1–1

DYNAMO DRESDEN

LWLLDL0–3 · 1–0 · 3–5 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	6	+10	18
2	1. FC Nürnberg	6	+10	16
3	1. FC Heidenheim	7	+2	14
4	1. FC Kaiserslautern	7	+2	12
5	VfL Wolfsburg	6	+7	11
6	1. FC Magdeburg	6	+2	10
7	Energie Cottbus	6	+1	8
8	Eintracht Braunschweig	7	0	7
9	FC St. Pauli	6	0	7
10	VfL Bochum	6	−1	7
11	Hannover 96	6	−2	7
12	VfL Osnabrück	6	−3	7
13	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	6	−2	6
14	Arminia Bielefeld	6	−2	5
15	Karlsruher SC	6	−6	5
16	Holstein Kiel	7	−4	4
17	Dynamo Dresden	6	−6	4
18	SV Darmstadt 98	6	−8	4