VfL Bochum v VfL Wolfsburg prediction · 2. Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:01

VfL Bochum 1–1 VfL Wolfsburg VFL WOLFSBURG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said VfL Wolfsburg win~~38%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.848

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.882

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said VfL Wolfsburg win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: VfL Wolfsburg was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 37–25–38
1′KICK-OFF VfL Bochum v VfL Wolfsburg
2′We published VfL Wolfsburg at 38%. Our model now makes it 63%. 0–1 · 18–19–63
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' VfL Bochum 0–1 VfL Wolfsburg
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' VfL Wolfsburg win: 38% at kick-off, 63% now
3′VfL Wolfsburg score on 2′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 18–19–63
18′We published VfL Wolfsburg at 38%. Our model now makes it 65%. 0–1 · 15–20–65
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 13–21–66
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' VfL Wolfsburg win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
44′11 shots for VfL Bochum, 6 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 10–21–68
44′SUBSTITUTION · 43' VfL Wolfsburg · On: Maximilian Arnold · Off: Vinicius de Souza Costa
45′HALF-TIME VfL Bochum 0–1 VfL Wolfsburg
46′VfL Bochum have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 10–21–69
46′SECOND HALF VfL Bochum 0–1 VfL Wolfsburg
49′We published VfL Wolfsburg at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
59′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Saël Kumbedi Nseke · VfL Wolfsburg
62′We said VfL Wolfsburg at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–48–26
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' VfL Bochum 1–1 VfL Wolfsburg
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' VfL Wolfsburg win: 38% at kick-off, 26% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was VfL Wolfsburg win 74%)
65′VfL Bochum level it on 63′ through Sean Klaiber. 1–1. 1–1 · 24–51–25
66′We said VfL Wolfsburg at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–24
66′VfL Bochum have had 16 attempts to 7 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 24–52–24
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' VfL Wolfsburg · On: Alessio Besio · Off: Alexander Bernhardsson
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' VfL Wolfsburg · On: Elvis Rexhbecaj · Off: Yannick Gerhardt
74′We said VfL Wolfsburg at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–62–19
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' VfL Wolfsburg win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
80′We said VfL Wolfsburg at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 13–73–14
80′SUBSTITUTION · 73' VfL Bochum · On: Jarne Steuckers · Off: Koji Miyoshi
80′SUBSTITUTION · 73' VfL Bochum · On: Christian Theodor Kjelder Rasmussen · Off: Berkan Taz
84′We said VfL Wolfsburg at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–9
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' VfL Bochum · On: Daniel Hanslik · Off: Philipp Hofmann
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' VfL Bochum · On: Mansour Ouro-Tagba · Off: Gerrit Holtmann
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' VfL Wolfsburg win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' VfL Wolfsburg · On: Kento Shiogai · Off: Muhammed Damar
91′We said VfL Wolfsburg at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' VfL Bochum · On: Yigit Karademir · Off: Sean Klaiber
94′We published VfL Wolfsburg at 38%. Our model now makes it 98%. 1–2 · 0–2–98
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' VfL Bochum 1–2 VfL Wolfsburg
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' VfL Wolfsburg win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' VfL Wolfsburg win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 97%)
95′Kento Shiogai scores for VfL Wolfsburg on 90′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
96′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+6' VfL Wolfsburg
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+6' VfL Wolfsburg win: 38% at kick-off, 2% now
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was VfL Wolfsburg win 98%)
FTFULL TIME VfL Bochum 1–1 VfL Wolfsburg
FTVfL Bochum 1–1 VfL Wolfsburg · VfL Wolfsburg win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with VfL Wolfsburg just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: VfL Bochum 37%, draw 25%, VfL Wolfsburg 38%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on VfL Bochum v VfL WolfsburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

VfL Bochum win37%

Draw25%

VfL Wolfsburg win38%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueVonovia Ruhrstadion

Line-ups

VfL Bochum

4-2-3-1

VfL Wolfsburg

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

VfL Bochum

VfL Wolfsburg

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	VfL Wolfsburg	8	+9	15
16	VfL Bochum	8	−4	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

VfL Bochum

4-2-3-1

1 T. Horn

2 S. Klaiber

15 M. Steinwender

5 K. Mets

32 M. Wittek

34 T. Meyer

24 M. Pannewig

10 B. Taz

17 G. Holtmann

23 K. Miyoshi

33 P. Hofmann

Coach · U. Rösler

Substitutes

39 · L. Isbruch

19 · D. Hanslik

16 · T. Casali

4 · Y. Karademir

7 · C. Rasmussen

29 · M. Ouro-Tagba

28 · C. Patino

31 · L. Sawas

14 · J. Steuckers

VfL Wolfsburg

4-2-3-1

1 T. Wellenreuther

26 S. Kumbedi

6 H. Wahl

33 Cleiton

21 J. Mæhle

31 Y. Gerhardt

5 Vinicius Souza

17 A. Bernhardsson

20 M. Damar

11 F. Reese

19 R. Glatzel

Coach · Tobias Strobl

Substitutes

30 · J. Zieliński

25 · A. Zehnter

7 · K. Shiogai

37 · E. Rexhbeçaj

2 · K. Fischer

8 · Bence Dárdai

23 · A. Besio

27 · M. Arnold

22 · M. Angely

Our number · vfl wolfsburg winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 20 Oct 03:52 · locked at kick-off

38% The market47%

Us38%

~~Market~~47%

We make VfL Wolfsburg a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · VfL Bochum v VfL Wolfsburg~~1.53 – 1.56

~~Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 15~~16 v 3

~~The market · VfL Wolfsburg win~~47% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · VfL Wolfsburg win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
VfL Bochum win	37%	29%	+8
Draw	25%	24%	+1
VfL Wolfsburg win	38%	47%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	59%	67%	−8
Both teams to score	62%	68%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	82%	85%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	37%	47%	−10
VfL Bochum or draw	62%	53%	+9
VfL Bochum clean sheet	21%	–	–
VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.2 6.7 5.6 2.9 1 6.5 11.2 8.3 4.4 2 5.4 8.2 6.3 3.3 3 2.7 4.2 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+VfL Bochum down, VfL Wolfsburg across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,612 2. Bundesliga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.3% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.88 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

VfL Bochum at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). VfL Wolfsburg away: 2.50 scored, 1.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for VfL Bochum, 1.56 for VfL Wolfsburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 17:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~WOL 1–1 BOC · BOC 1–3 WOL · WOL 1–0 BOC · BOC 3–1 WOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 28 Aug

VFL BOCHUM

LWDLLL0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2

VFL WOLFSBURG

WDLWDW5–2 · 4–4 · 0–1 · 5–1 · 4–4 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	8	+11	22
2	1. FC Nürnberg	8	+10	18
3	VfL Wolfsburg	8	+9	15
4	1. FC Kaiserslautern	8	+4	15
5	1. FC Heidenheim	8	0	14
6	1. FC Magdeburg	8	+3	13
7	FC St. Pauli	8	+2	11
8	Arminia Bielefeld	8	0	11
9	Energie Cottbus	8	−1	9
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	8	−1	9
11	Dynamo Dresden	8	−4	8
12	VfL Osnabrück	8	−4	8
13	Karlsruher SC	8	−4	8
14	Hannover 96	8	−5	8
15	Eintracht Braunschweig	8	−2	7
16	VfL Bochum	8	−4	7
17	SV Darmstadt 98	8	−10	7
18	Holstein Kiel	8	−4	5