VfL Bochum v Arminia Bielefeld prediction · 2. Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:05

VfL Bochum 0–1 Arminia Bielefeld VFL BOCHUM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said VfL Bochum win~~44%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.736

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.695

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said VfL Bochum win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: VfL Bochum was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
1′KICK-OFF VfL Bochum v Arminia Bielefeld
2′Much as we predicted: VfL Bochum was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–24–31
22′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Michael Steinwender · VfL Bochum
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Joel Felix · Arminia Bielefeld
45′SECOND HALF VfL Bochum 0–0 Arminia Bielefeld
47′HALF-TIME VfL Bochum 0–0 Arminia Bielefeld
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' VfL Bochum · On: Berkan Taz · Off: Christian Theodor Kjelder Rasmussen
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Arminia Bielefeld · On: Benjamin boakye · Off: Isaiah Young
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Arminia Bielefeld · On: Jannik Rochelt · Off: Leon Jensen
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Benjamin boakye · Arminia Bielefeld
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' VfL Bochum 0–1 Arminia Bielefeld
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' VfL Bochum 0–1 Arminia Bielefeld · Benjamin boakye
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' VfL Bochum · On: Daniel Hanslik · Off: Mats Henry Pannewig
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Arminia Bielefeld · On: David Min · Off: Joel Grodowski
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' VfL Bochum · On: alessandro crimaldi · Off: Maximilian Wittek
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Gerrit Holtmann · VfL Bochum
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Arminia Bielefeld · On: Leon Schneider · Off: Marius Worl
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' David Min · Arminia Bielefeld
FTFULL TIME VfL Bochum 0–1 Arminia Bielefeld
FTVfL Bochum 0–1 Arminia Bielefeld · VfL Bochum win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

VfL Bochum win44%

Draw25%

Arminia Bielefeld win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:30

VenueVonovia Ruhrstadion

RefereeKonrad Oldhafer

Line-ups

VfL Bochum

4-2-3-1

Arminia Bielefeld

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

VfL Bochum

Arminia Bielefeld

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	VfL Bochum	6	−1	7
15	Arminia Bielefeld	6	−2	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

VfL Bochum

4-2-3-1

1 T. Horn

2 S. Klaiber

15 M. Steinwender

5 K. Mets

32 M. Wittek

34 T. Meyer

24 M. Pannewig

7 C. Rasmussen

23 K. Miyoshi

17 G. Holtmann

33 P. Hofmann

Coach · Uwe Rosler

Substitutes

16 · T. Casali

4 · Y. Karademir

31 · L. Sawas

28 · C. Patino

10 · B. Taz

39 · L. Isbruch

37 · A. Crimaldi

19 · D. Hanslik

29 · M. Ouro-Tagba

Arminia Bielefeld

5-4-1

1 J. Kersken

2 F. Hagmann

19 M. Grosser

5 M. Bauer

3 J. Felix

17 A. Sicker

30 I. Young

31 L. Jensen

21 S. Russo

38 M. Worl

11 J. Grodowski

Coach · Oliver Kirch

Substitutes

18 · L. Oppermann

23 · L. Schneider

29 · T. Handwerker

7 · H. Koudossou

8 · S. Schreck

6 · M. Mehlem

10 · J. Rochelt

9 · D. Min

27 · B. Boakye

Our number · vfl bochum winPublished 11 Oct 12:33

44% The market45%

Us44%

~~Market~~45%

We make VfL Bochum a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · vfl bochum win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
VfL Bochum win	44%	45%	−1
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Arminia Bielefeld win	31%	29%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	57%	58%	−1
Both teams to score	59%	61%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	34%	37%	−3
VfL Bochum or draw	69%	71%	−2
VfL Bochum clean sheet	27%	–	–
Arminia Bielefeld clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 5.8 6.5 4.6 2.0 1 8.1 11.6 7.4 3.3 2 6.9 9.0 6.0 2.7 3 3.8 4.9 3.3 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+VfL Bochum down, Arminia Bielefeld across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,600 2. Bundesliga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

VfL Bochum at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Arminia Bielefeld away: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for VfL Bochum, 1.33 for Arminia Bielefeld. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 12:07. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ARM 1–1 VFL · VFL 1–0 ARM

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga

VFL BOCHUM

LWLWDL0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

ARMINIA BIELEFELD

LWLDLD1–2 · 3–0 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	6	+10	18
2	1. FC Nürnberg	7	+10	17
3	1. FC Heidenheim	7	+2	14
4	1. FC Magdeburg	7	+5	13
5	VfL Wolfsburg	7	+7	12
6	1. FC Kaiserslautern	7	+2	12
7	Energie Cottbus	7	−1	8
8	VfL Osnabrück	7	−3	8
9	Eintracht Braunschweig	7	0	7
10	FC St. Pauli	6	0	7
11	VfL Bochum	6	−1	7
12	Hannover 96	7	−5	7
13	SV Darmstadt 98	7	−6	7
14	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	6	−2	6
15	Arminia Bielefeld	6	−2	5
16	Dynamo Dresden	7	−6	5
17	Karlsruher SC	6	−6	5
18	Holstein Kiel	7	−4	4