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SV Darmstadt 98 v Energie Cottbus

SV Darmstadt 98
3–1Full time
Energie Cottbus

2. Bundesliga · SAT 10 OCT · Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35
SV Darmstadt 98 3–1 Energie Cottbus SV DARMSTADT 98 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said SV Darmstadt 98 win47%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.416
The market’s Brier score0.472

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 39 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said SV Darmstadt 98 win at 47%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: SV Darmstadt 98 was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–22–30
  3. 1′KICK-OFF SV Darmstadt 98 v Energie Cottbus
  4. 3′A goal for Energie Cottbus on 4′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 26–21–52
  5. 3′⚽ GOAL · 3' SV Darmstadt 98 0–1 Energie Cottbus
  6. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' SV Darmstadt 98 win: 47% at kick-off, 26% now
  7. 3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Energie Cottbus win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was SV Darmstadt 98 win 26%)
  8. 3′⚽ GOAL · 4' SV Darmstadt 98 0–1 Energie Cottbus
  9. 4′We said SV Darmstadt 98 at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–1 · 26–21–53
  10. 12′We said SV Darmstadt 98 at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–22–54
  11. 31′We said SV Darmstadt 98 at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–57
  12. 34′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 18–24–58
  13. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' SV Darmstadt 98 1–1 Energie Cottbus · Justin Butler
  14. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' SV Darmstadt 98 win: 47% at kick-off, 42% now
  15. 35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' SV Darmstadt 98 win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Energie Cottbus win 28%)
  16. 37′⚽ GOAL · 36' SV Darmstadt 98 1–1 Energie Cottbus · Noah Weisshaupt
  17. 38′36′ and it is 1–1: Noah Weisshaupt on the scoresheet for SV Darmstadt 98. 1–1 · 41–31–28
  18. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Christian Kinsombi · Energie Cottbus
  19. 45′SECOND HALF SV Darmstadt 98 1–1 Energie Cottbus
  20. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Christian Kinsombi · Energie Cottbus
  21. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' SV Darmstadt 98 win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
  22. 54′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Energie Cottbus · On: fousseny doumbia · Off: Axel Borgmann
  23. 57′We said SV Darmstadt 98 at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 35–41–25
  24. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was SV Darmstadt 98 win 35%)
  25. 60′We said SV Darmstadt 98 at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–43–24
  26. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Patric Pfeiffer · SV Darmstadt 98
  27. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Justin Butler · Energie Cottbus
  28. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' SV Darmstadt 98 · On: Lance Duijvestijn · Off: Lee Ho-Jae
  29. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' SV Darmstadt 98 · On: Lance Duijvestijn · Off: Lee Ho-Jae
  30. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Energie Cottbus · On: Dominik Pelivan · Off: Leonardo Bittencourt
  31. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Energie Cottbus · On: Dmytro Bogdanov · Off: Moritz Hannemann
  32. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' SV Darmstadt 98 win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
  33. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' SV Darmstadt 98 · On: Fynn-Luca Lakenmacher · Off: Marco Richter
  34. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' SV Darmstadt 98 · On: Yannik Luhrs · Off: William Mikelbrencis
  35. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' SV Darmstadt 98 2–1 Energie Cottbus · Noah Weisshaupt
  36. 77′SV Darmstadt 98 ahead on 77′ through Aleksandar Vukotić. 2–1. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  37. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' SV Darmstadt 98 2–1 Energie Cottbus · Aleksandar Vukotić
  38. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' SV Darmstadt 98 win: 47% at kick-off, 85% now
  39. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' SV Darmstadt 98 win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
  40. 79′We published SV Darmstadt 98 at 47%. Our model now makes it 87%. 2–1 · 87–12–1
  41. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' SV Darmstadt 98 win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
  42. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Noah Weisshaupt · SV Darmstadt 98
  43. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Tolcay Cigerci · Energie Cottbus
  44. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Energie Cottbus · On: Jannis Boziaris · Off: Lukas Michelbrink
  45. 84′We published SV Darmstadt 98 at 47%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–1 · 92–8–0
  46. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Lance Duijvestijn · SV Darmstadt 98
  47. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' SV Darmstadt 98 3–1 Energie Cottbus · Aleksandar Vukotić
  48. 88′Yannik Luhrs scores for SV Darmstadt 98 on 88′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  49. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' SV Darmstadt 98 3–1 Energie Cottbus · Yannik Luhrs
  50. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' SV Darmstadt 98 win: 47% at kick-off, 100% now
  51. 90′We published SV Darmstadt 98 at 47%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  52. 92′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  53. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 92' SV Darmstadt 98 · On: Yosuke Furukawa · Off: Noah Weisshaupt
  54. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' SV Darmstadt 98 win: 47% at kick-off, 100% now
  55. FTFULL TIME SV Darmstadt 98 3–1 Energie Cottbus
  56. FTSV Darmstadt 98 3–1 Energie Cottbus · SV Darmstadt 98 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

SV Darmstadt 98 win47%
Draw23%
Energie Cottbus win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

Venue · Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor

Referee · Justin Joel Hasmann

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

SV Darmstadt 98

4-4-2

1 M. Schuhen

25 W. Mikelbrencis

6 P. Pfeiffer

20 A. Vukotic

18 R. Petretta

5 M. Richter

17 K. Klefisch

10 N. Verkooijen

7 N. Weisshaupt

9 Lee Ho-Jae

36 M. Smit

Coach · Florian Kohfeldt

Substitutes

30 · A. Brunst

49 · Y. Luhrs

3 · F. Kleinhansl

22 · L. Kehl

41 · L. Duijvestijn

16 · H. Akiyama

19 · F. Lakenmacher

11 · I. El Kadiri

44 · Y. Furukawa

Energie Cottbus

4-2-3-1

1 M. Lotka

3 H. Rorig

2 K. Manu

21 L. Erlein

20 A. Borgmann

32 L. Bittencourt

8 L. Michelbrink

11 M. Hannemann

10 T. Cigerci

7 C. Kinsombi

31 J. Butler

Coach · Claus-Dieter Wollitz

Substitutes

29 · K. Kratzsch

23 · F. Doumbia

16 · R. Malone

4 · T. Campulka

6 · J. Hofmann

5 · D. Pelivan

19 · J. Boziaris

9 · L. Copado

13 · D. Bogdanov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

SV Darmstadt 98

4-4-2

1 M. Schuhen

25 W. Mikelbrencis

6 P. Pfeiffer

20 A. Vukotic

18 R. Petretta

5 M. Richter

17 K. Klefisch

10 N. Verkooijen

7 N. Weisshaupt

9 Lee Ho-Jae

36 M. Smit

Coach · Florian Kohfeldt

Substitutes

30 · A. Brunst

49 · Y. Luhrs

3 · F. Kleinhansl

22 · L. Kehl

41 · L. Duijvestijn

16 · H. Akiyama

19 · F. Lakenmacher

11 · I. El Kadiri

44 · Y. Furukawa

Energie Cottbus

4-2-3-1

1 M. Lotka

3 H. Rorig

2 K. Manu

21 L. Erlein

20 A. Borgmann

32 L. Bittencourt

8 L. Michelbrink

11 M. Hannemann

10 T. Cigerci

7 C. Kinsombi

31 J. Butler

Coach · Claus-Dieter Wollitz

Substitutes

29 · K. Kratzsch

23 · F. Doumbia

16 · R. Malone

4 · T. Campulka

6 · J. Hofmann

5 · D. Pelivan

19 · J. Boziaris

9 · L. Copado

13 · D. Bogdanov

Our number · sv darmstadt 98 winPublished 10 Oct 12:19
47% The market44%
Us47%
Market44%

We make SV Darmstadt 98 a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 9 OCT 06:1810 OCT 09:39
Our probability · sv darmstadt 98 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
SV Darmstadt 98 win47%44%+3
Draw23%24%−1
Energie Cottbus win30%32%−2
Over 2.5 goals65%67%−2
Both teams to score65%68%−3
Over 1.5 goals85%85%0
Over 3.5 goals44%49%−5
SV Darmstadt 98 or draw70%68%+2
SV Darmstadt 98 clean sheet23%––
Energie Cottbus clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%
0123450 3.9 4.7 3.7 1 6.2 9.9 6.9 3.4 2 6.2 8.9 6.6 3.3 3 4.0 5.7 4.2 2.1 4 2.8 2.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+SV Darmstadt 98 down, Energie Cottbus across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga

SV DARMSTADT 98

DLLLWL2–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–5

ENERGIE COTTBUS

WLLDWD3–1 · 0–3 · 3–4 · 4–4 · 3–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Hertha BSC6+1018
21. FC Nürnberg6+1016
31. FC Heidenheim7+214
41. FC Kaiserslautern7+212
5VfL Wolfsburg6+711
61. FC Magdeburg6+210
7Energie Cottbus6+18
8Eintracht Braunschweig707
9FC St. Pauli607
10VfL Bochum6−17
11Hannover 966−27
12VfL Osnabrück6−37
13SpVgg Greuther Fürth6−26
14Arminia Bielefeld6−25
15Karlsruher SC6−65
16Holstein Kiel7−44
17Dynamo Dresden6−64
18SV Darmstadt 986−84

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.