SpVgg Greuther Fürth v Eintracht Braunschweig prediction · 2. Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–0 Eintracht Braunschweig SPVGG GREUTHER FÜRTH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SpVgg Greuther Fürth win~~47%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.420

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.453

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SpVgg Greuther Fürth win at 47%.
1′KICK-OFF SpVgg Greuther Fürth v Eintracht Braunschweig
2′Little has changed for our model: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
32′We said SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–18–9
32′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 73–18–9
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–0 Eintracht Braunschweig
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' SpVgg Greuther Fürth win: 47% at kick-off, 73% now
33′A goal for SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 32′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–9
43′We said SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
45′SECOND HALF SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–0 Eintracht Braunschweig
46′HALF-TIME SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–0 Eintracht Braunschweig
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Eintracht Braunschweig · On: Robin Heusser · Off: Samuele Di Benedetto
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' SpVgg Greuther Fürth win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
63′We said SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–0
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–0 Eintracht Braunschweig
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' SpVgg Greuther Fürth win: 47% at kick-off, 96% now
64′63′: Felix Klaus on the scoresheet for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' SpVgg Greuther Fürth win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Eintracht Braunschweig · On: Noah Katterbach · Off: Fabio Di Michele Sanchez
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Eintracht Braunschweig · On: Jovan Mijatovic · Off: Aaron Opoku
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' SpVgg Greuther Fürth · On: Dennis Srbeny · Off: Shinta Karl Appelkamp
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' SpVgg Greuther Fürth · On: Jordan Siebatcheu · Off: Omar Sillah
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' SpVgg Greuther Fürth · On: Krisztián Keresztes · Off: Gian-Luca Itter
76′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Felix Klaus · SpVgg Greuther Fürth
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Eintracht Braunschweig · On: Arlet Junior Zé · Off: Lukas Frenkert
83′We said SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' SpVgg Greuther Fürth · On: Aaron Keller · Off: Ole Pohlmann
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' SpVgg Greuther Fürth · On: Faton Ademi · Off: Felix Klaus
93′2–0 at the end. Our 47% on SpVgg Greuther Fürth comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–0 Eintracht Braunschweig
FTSpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–0 Eintracht Braunschweig · SpVgg Greuther Fürth win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SpVgg Greuther Fürth are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47%, draw 25%, Eintracht Braunschweig 28%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on SpVgg Greuther Fürth v Eintracht BraunschweigBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

SpVgg Greuther Fürth win47%

Draw25%

Eintracht Braunschweig win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer

RefereeFelix Weller

Line-ups

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

4-2-3-1

Eintracht Braunschweig

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Eintracht Braunschweig

6Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

Last match: 9 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Eintracht Braunschweig	7	0	7
15	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	7	−3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

4-2-3-1

1 F. Hellstern

2 L. Reich

22 J. Heuer

34 H. Blank

27 L. Itter

6 S. Banse

13 P. Will

30 F. Klaus

8 S. Appelkamp

10 O. Pohlmann

42 O. Sillah

Coach · Heiko Vogel

Substitutes

39 · C. Ortag

29 · K. Keresztes

28 · D. Arifi

11 · A. Keller

37 · F. Ademi

45 · O. Balliu

21 · M. Wallentowitz

7 · D. Srbeny

9 · Jordan

Eintracht Braunschweig

4-1-4-1

1 R. Hoffmann

8 M. Aydin

21 K. Ehlers

29 L. Frenkert

22 F. Di Michele Sanchez

6 F. Flick

17 A. Opoku

10 S. Di Benedetto

15 M. Marie

7 Y. Sturm

27 J. Urbich

Coach · Lars Kornetka

Substitutes

32 · B. Uphoff

4 · A. Hoti

3 · N. Katterbach

30 · R. Heusser

37 · S. Raebiger

26 · T. Wagner

24 · S. Sane

11 · J. Mijatovic

19 · Junior Ze

Our number · spvgg greuther fürth winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market45%

Us47%

~~Market~~45%

We make SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SpVgg Greuther Fürth v Eintracht Braunschweig~~1.70 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 14 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 7~~15 v 11

~~The market · SpVgg Greuther Fürth win~~45% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SpVgg Greuther Fürth win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SpVgg Greuther Fürth win	47%	45%	+2
Draw	25%	25%	0
Eintracht Braunschweig win	28%	30%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	57%	63%	−6
Both teams to score	59%	65%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	80%	83%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	35%	43%	−8
SpVgg Greuther Fürth or draw	72%	70%	+2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth clean sheet	28%	–	–
Eintracht Braunschweig clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.8 6.1 4.1 1 8.3 11.5 6.9 2.9 2 7.4 9.3 5.9 2.5 3 4.2 5.3 3.3 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SpVgg Greuther Fürth down, Eintracht Braunschweig across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,605 2. Bundesliga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Eintracht Braunschweig away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1.26 for Eintracht Braunschweig. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SPV 0–0 EIN · EIN 3–2 SPV · SPV 3–0 EIN · EIN 2–0 SPV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 14 Aug

SPVGG GREUTHER FÜRTH

LWLDDL2–4 · 4–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

EINTRACHT BRAUNSCHWEIG

LLLDLW0–1 · 3–5 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	8	+11	22
2	1. FC Nürnberg	8	+10	18
3	1. FC Heidenheim	7	+2	14
4	1. FC Magdeburg	7	+5	13
5	VfL Wolfsburg	7	+7	12
6	1. FC Kaiserslautern	7	+2	12
7	FC St. Pauli	7	+2	10
8	Energie Cottbus	8	−1	9
9	Arminia Bielefeld	7	−1	8
10	VfL Osnabrück	7	−3	8
11	Eintracht Braunschweig	7	0	7
12	VfL Bochum	7	−2	7
13	Hannover 96	7	−5	7
14	SV Darmstadt 98	7	−6	7
15	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	7	−3	6
16	Holstein Kiel	8	−4	5
17	Dynamo Dresden	7	−6	5
18	Karlsruher SC	7	−8	5