Karlsruher SC v SV Darmstadt 98 prediction · 2. Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23

Karlsruher SC 4–0 SV Darmstadt 98 KARLSRUHER SC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Karlsruher SC win~~41%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.538

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.508

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Karlsruher SC win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Karlsruher SC 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–24–36
1′KICK-OFF Karlsruher SC v SV Darmstadt 98
6′We said Karlsruher SC at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–18–17
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Karlsruher SC 1–0 SV Darmstadt 98
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Karlsruher SC win: 41% at kick-off, 65% now
7′6′: Shio Fukuda on the scoresheet for Karlsruher SC, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 65–18–17
13′We said Karlsruher SC at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 2–0 · 84–10–6
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Karlsruher SC 2–0 SV Darmstadt 98
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Karlsruher SC win: 41% at kick-off, 84% now
14′Karlsruher SC ahead on 13′ through Marvin Wanitzek. 2–0. 2–0 · 84–10–6
17′We said Karlsruher SC at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–0 · 85–10–5
43′We said Karlsruher SC at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
44′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 2–0 · 90–8–3
45′HALF-TIME Karlsruher SC 2–0 SV Darmstadt 98
46′SECOND HALF Karlsruher SC 2–0 SV Darmstadt 98
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Karlsruher SC win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
51′We said Karlsruher SC at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–0 · 98–2–0
51′Christoph Kobald scores for Karlsruher SC on 50′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 98–2–0
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Karlsruher SC 3–0 SV Darmstadt 98
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Karlsruher SC · On: Jason Ponente-Ramirez · Off: Noel Eichinger
65′We said Karlsruher SC at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Karlsruher SC 4–0 SV Darmstadt 98
66′65′: Kevin Wiethaup on the scoresheet for Karlsruher SC, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
66′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Karlsruher SC · On: Tim Civeja · Off: Kevin Wiethaup
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Karlsruher SC · On: Deniz Ofli · Off: Marcel Franke Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Karlsruher SC · On: Deniz Ofli · Off: Sebastian Jung
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Aleksandar Vukotić · SV Darmstadt 98
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Sandro Tremoulet · Karlsruher SC
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Milan Smit · SV Darmstadt 98
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' SV Darmstadt 98 · On: Noah Weisshaupt · Off: Hiroki Akiyama
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' SV Darmstadt 98 · On: Ibrahim El Kadiri · Off: Marco Richter
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' SV Darmstadt 98 · On: Yannik Luhrs · Off: Lance Duijvestijn
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' SV Darmstadt 98 · On: Florian Kleinhansl · Off: Lee Ho-Jae
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Karlsruher SC · On: paul scholl · Off: Christoph Kobald
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Karlsruher SC · On: Danyal Hakan Zor · Off: Santeri Väänänen
FTFULL TIME Karlsruher SC 4–0 SV Darmstadt 98
FTKarlsruher SC 4–0 SV Darmstadt 98 · Karlsruher SC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Karlsruher SC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Karlsruher SC 41%, draw 24%, SV Darmstadt 98 36%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Karlsruher SC v SV Darmstadt 98Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Karlsruher SC win41%

Draw24%

SV Darmstadt 98 win36%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueBBBank Wildpark

RefereeMarc Philip Eckermann

Line-ups

Karlsruher SC

3-4-1-2

SV Darmstadt 98

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karlsruher SC

SV Darmstadt 98

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	SV Darmstadt 98	7	−6	7
18	Karlsruher SC	7	−8	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Karlsruher SC

3-4-1-2

1 C. Bernat

22 C. Kobald

28 M. Franke

24 S. Tremoulet

2 S. Jung

7 K. Wiethaup

6 S. Vaananen

33 V. Bergh

10 M. Wanitzek

13 S. Fukuda

11 N. Eichinger

Coach · Maximilian Senft

Substitutes

30 · R. Himmelmann

15 · P. Scholl

3 · D. Ofli

25 · L. Egloff

5 · Kwon Hyeok-Kyu

26 · D. H. Zor

23 · T. Civeja

37 · J. Ponente-Ramirez

27 · J. D. Meyer

SV Darmstadt 98

4-2-3-1

1 M. Schuhen

25 W. Mikelbrencis

6 P. Pfeiffer

20 A. Vukotic

18 R. Petretta

17 K. Klefisch

16 H. Akiyama

5 M. Richter

36 M. Smit

41 L. Duijvestijn

9 Lee Ho-Jae

Coach · Florian Kohfeldt

Substitutes

30 · A. Brunst

26 · M. Bader

49 · Y. Luhrs

28 · C. Lannert

3 · F. Kleinhansl

43 · T. Steineck

19 · F. Lakenmacher

7 · N. Weisshaupt

11 · I. El Kadiri

Our number · karlsruher sc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 09:38 · locked at kick-off

41% The market42%

Us41%

~~Market~~42%

We make Karlsruher SC a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karlsruher SC v SV Darmstadt 98~~1.71 – 1.60

~~Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 15 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 5 v 7~~18 v 15

~~The market · Karlsruher SC win~~42% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Karlsruher SC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karlsruher SC win	41%	42%	−1
Draw	24%	25%	−1
SV Darmstadt 98 win	36%	33%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	64%	63%	+1
Both teams to score	65%	66%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	83%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	42%	43%	−1
Karlsruher SC or draw	64%	67%	−3
Karlsruher SC clean sheet	21%	–	–
SV Darmstadt 98 clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.2 5.4 4.7 2.5 1 5.9 10.4 7.9 4.2 2 5.4 8.4 6.7 3.6 3 3.1 4.8 3.8 2.0 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karlsruher SC down, SV Darmstadt 98 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,609 2. Bundesliga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.75 goals a meeting; 8 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karlsruher SC at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Karlsruher SC, 1.60 for SV Darmstadt 98. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 12:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KAR 2–1 SVD · SVD 3–2 KAR · SVD 3–0 KAR · KAR 3–3 SVD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 15 Aug

KARLSRUHER SC

DLDLLL0–0 · 2–5 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–2

SV DARMSTADT 98

LLLWLW0–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–5 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	8	+11	22
2	1. FC Nürnberg	8	+10	18
3	VfL Wolfsburg	8	+9	15
4	1. FC Kaiserslautern	8	+4	15
5	1. FC Heidenheim	8	0	14
6	1. FC Magdeburg	7	+5	13
7	FC St. Pauli	8	+2	11
8	Energie Cottbus	8	−1	9
9	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	8	−1	9
10	Arminia Bielefeld	7	−1	8
11	VfL Osnabrück	7	−3	8
12	Hannover 96	8	−5	8
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	8	−2	7
14	VfL Bochum	8	−4	7
15	SV Darmstadt 98	7	−6	7
16	Holstein Kiel	8	−4	5
17	Dynamo Dresden	7	−6	5
18	Karlsruher SC	7	−8	5