Holstein Kiel v Hertha BSC prediction · 2. Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 20:01

Holstein Kiel 0–0 Hertha BSC HOLSTEIN KIEL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Holstein Kiel win~~40%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.840

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.860

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Holstein Kiel win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Holstein Kiel 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–35
1′KICK-OFF Holstein Kiel v Hertha BSC
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Deyovaisio Zeefuik · Hertha BSC
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Sebastian Schonlau · Holstein Kiel
41′Hertha BSC have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 34–35–30
45′8 shots for Hertha BSC, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 33–37–30
45′HALF-TIME Holstein Kiel 0–0 Hertha BSC
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Holstein Kiel win 33%)
46′SECOND HALF Holstein Kiel 0–0 Hertha BSC
51′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Holstein Kiel · On: David Zec · Off: Sebastian Schonlau Corrected
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Holstein Kiel win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 30–43–27
59′We said Holstein Kiel at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–46–26
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Holstein Kiel · On: Gyan de Regt · Off: Guillermo Balzi
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Holstein Kiel · On: Ikem Ugoh · Off: Till Wiese
67′We said Holstein Kiel at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–22
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' David Zec · Holstein Kiel
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Hertha BSC · On: Jan Luca Schuler · Off: Sebastian Gronning
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Hertha BSC · On: Mads Valentin Pedersen · Off: Julian Eitschberger
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Holstein Kiel win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
74′We said Holstein Kiel at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–63–17
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hertha BSC · On: Farid Alfa-Ruprecht · Off: Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson
80′We said Holstein Kiel at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–74–12
81′12 shots for Hertha BSC, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 13–76–11
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Holstein Kiel · On: Giorgi Kvilitaia · Off: Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Holstein Kiel · On: Mark Richter Montserrat · Off: Adrian Kapralik
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Holstein Kiel win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
84′We said Holstein Kiel at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Hertha BSC · On: Soufian gouram · Off: Oluwaseun Adewumi
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Paul Seguin · Hertha BSC
91′We said Holstein Kiel at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Holstein Kiel 0–0 Hertha BSC
FTHolstein Kiel 0–0 Hertha BSC · Holstein Kiel win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Holstein Kiel are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Holstein Kiel 40%, draw 25%, Hertha BSC 35%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Holstein Kiel v Hertha BSCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Holstein Kiel win40%

Draw25%

Hertha BSC win35%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueHolstein-Stadion

RefereeJarno Wienefeld

Line-ups

Holstein Kiel

4-5-1

Hertha BSC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Holstein Kiel

Hertha BSC

7Days since last match5

Last match: 9 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Holstein Kiel

4-5-1

1 T. Weiner

32 H. Sekine

5 N. Madsen

4 S. Schonlau

40 L. Parduzi

20 A. Kapralik

8 G. Balzi

28 J. Meffert

43 T. Wiese

10 J. Therkelsen

19 P. Harres

Coach · Tim Walter

Substitutes

41 · L. Rothenhagen

26 · D. Zec

13 · I. Nekic

47 · J. Tolkin

27 · I. Ugoh

9 · G. Kvilitaia

17 · F. Alidou

11 · G. de Regt

44 · M. Richter Monserrat

Hertha BSC

4-2-3-1

35 M. Gersbeck

2 J. Eitschberger

44 L. Gechter

27 N. Kolbe

42 D. Zeefuik

30 P. Seguin

8 K. Sessa

19 O. Adewumi

23 J. Thorsteinsson

7 J. Brekalo

17 S. Gronning

Coach · Stefan Leitl

Substitutes

43 · T. Goller

13 · K. Heide

22 · M. Pedersen

33 · S. Gouram

41 · P. Klemens

47 · S. Telib

18 · L. Schuler

20 · F. Alfa-Ruprecht

28 · J. Ndi

Our number · holstein kiel winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

40% The market36%

Us40%

~~Market~~36%

We make Holstein Kiel a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Holstein Kiel v Hertha BSC~~1.54 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 14 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 21~~18 v 1

~~The market · Holstein Kiel win~~36% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Holstein Kiel win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Holstein Kiel win	40%	36%	+4
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Hertha BSC win	35%	40%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	56%	67%	−11
Both teams to score	59%	69%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	80%	85%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	34%	49%	−15
Holstein Kiel or draw	65%	60%	+5
Holstein Kiel clean sheet	25%	–	–
Hertha BSC clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 5.8 7.0 5.2 2.5 1 7.7 11.7 7.9 3.8 2 6.2 8.6 6.1 2.9 3 3.2 4.4 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Holstein Kiel down, Hertha BSC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,603 2. Bundesliga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Holstein Kiel at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Hertha BSC away: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Holstein Kiel, 1.41 for Hertha BSC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~HER 0–1 HOL · HOL 0–1 HER · HER 2–2 HOL · HOL 2–3 HER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 14 Aug

HOLSTEIN KIEL

DLDLDL2–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

HERTHA BSC

WWWWWW4–1 · 5–3 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	7	+11	21
2	1. FC Nürnberg	7	+10	17
3	1. FC Heidenheim	7	+2	14
4	1. FC Magdeburg	7	+5	13
5	VfL Wolfsburg	7	+7	12
6	1. FC Kaiserslautern	7	+2	12
7	FC St. Pauli	7	+2	10
8	Energie Cottbus	7	−1	8
9	Arminia Bielefeld	7	−1	8
10	VfL Osnabrück	7	−3	8
11	Eintracht Braunschweig	7	0	7
12	VfL Bochum	7	−2	7
13	Hannover 96	7	−5	7
14	SV Darmstadt 98	7	−6	7
15	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	7	−3	6
16	Dynamo Dresden	7	−6	5
17	Karlsruher SC	7	−8	5
18	Holstein Kiel	7	−4	4