Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden prediction · 2. Bundesliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Holstein KielDrawDynamo Dresden

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Holstein Kiel 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Holstein Kiel are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Holstein Kiel 45%, draw 26%, Dynamo Dresden 29%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Holstein Kiel v Dynamo DresdenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Holstein Kiel win45%

Draw26%

Dynamo Dresden win29%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueHolstein-Stadion

RefereeTimo Gerach

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Holstein Kiel

Dynamo Dresden

9Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

Last match: 18 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Dynamo Dresden	8	−4	8
18	Holstein Kiel	8	−4	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · holstein kiel winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

45% The market41%

Us45%

~~Market~~41%

We make Holstein Kiel a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden~~1.61 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 8~~18 v 11

~~The market · Holstein Kiel win~~41% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Holstein Kiel win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Holstein Kiel win	45%	41%	+4
Draw	26%	26%	0
Dynamo Dresden win	29%	33%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	54%	60%	−6
Both teams to score	57%	62%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	78%	80%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	39%	−7
Holstein Kiel or draw	71%	67%	+4
Holstein Kiel clean sheet	29%	–	–
Dynamo Dresden clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.5 6.7 4.5 1 8.8 12.0 7.1 3.0 2 7.4 9.1 5.7 2.4 3 4.0 4.9 3.1 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Holstein Kiel down, Dynamo Dresden across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,618 2. Bundesliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.1% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Holstein Kiel at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Dynamo Dresden away: 1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Holstein Kiel, 1.25 for Dynamo Dresden. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DYN 2–1 HOL · HOL 2–1 DYN · DYN 0–0 HOL · HOL 2–1 DYN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug

HOLSTEIN KIEL

LDLDLD0–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

DYNAMO DRESDEN

LLDLDW3–5 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	9	+12	25
2	1. FC Nürnberg	9	+9	18
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	9	+5	18
4	VfL Wolfsburg	9	+9	16
5	1. FC Magdeburg	9	+8	16
6	1. FC Heidenheim	9	0	15
7	FC St. Pauli	9	+2	12
8	Arminia Bielefeld	9	−1	11
9	Energie Cottbus	9	−1	10
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	8	−1	9
11	Dynamo Dresden	8	−4	8
12	VfL Osnabrück	8	−4	8
13	VfL Bochum	9	−4	8
14	Hannover 96	8	−5	8
15	Karlsruher SC	9	−9	8
16	SV Darmstadt 98	9	−10	8
17	Eintracht Braunschweig	8	−2	7
18	Holstein Kiel	8	−4	5