Hertha BSC v SpVgg Greuther Fürth prediction · 2. Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:05

Hertha BSC 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth HERTHA BSC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hertha BSC win~~54%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.312

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.231

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hertha BSC win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hertha BSC was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–24
1′KICK-OFF Hertha BSC v SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2′Much as we predicted: Hertha BSC was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–24
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Hertha BSC win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Hertha BSC win: 54% at kick-off, 45% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Hertha BSC win: 54% at kick-off, 45% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Hertha BSC win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
45′Hertha BSC have had 12.0 attempts to 7.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 44–34–22
45′HALF-TIME Hertha BSC 0–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Hertha BSC win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
46′SECOND HALF Hertha BSC 0–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth
62′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Linus Jasper Gechter · Hertha BSC
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Hertha BSC 0–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Hertha BSC 0–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth · Omar Sillah
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Hertha BSC · On: Farid Alfa-Ruprecht · Off: Oluwaseun Adewumi
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Hertha BSC · On: Gustaf Nilsson · Off: Jan Luca Schuler
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Hertha BSC 1–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Hertha BSC 1–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth · Mads Valentin Pedersen
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' SpVgg Greuther Fürth · On: Faton Ademi · Off: Shinta Karl Appelkamp
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Julian Eitschberger · Hertha BSC
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' SpVgg Greuther Fürth · On: Jordan Siebatcheu · Off: Sacha Banse
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hertha BSC · On: Deyovaisio Zeefuik · Off: Mads Valentin Pedersen
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Hertha BSC 2–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth · Mads Valentin Pedersen
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Hertha BSC 2–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth · Paul Seguin
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' SpVgg Greuther Fürth · On: Aaron Keller · Off: Lukas Reich
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' SpVgg Greuther Fürth · On: Dennis Srbeny · Off: Omar Sillah
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' SpVgg Greuther Fürth · On: Olgherto Balliu · Off: Ole Pohlmann
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Hertha BSC · On: Pascal Klemens · Off: Kevin Sessa
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Hertha BSC · On: Soufian gouram · Off: Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Hertha BSC 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth · Paul Seguin
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Hertha BSC 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth · Jannis Heuer
FTFULL TIME Hertha BSC 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth
FTHertha BSC 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth · Hertha BSC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Hertha BSC win54%

Draw22%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:30

VenueOlympiastadion

RefereeTobias Stieler

Line-ups

Hertha BSC

4-2-3-1

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Hertha BSC

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

22Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	6	+10	18
14	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	6	−2	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Hertha BSC

4-2-3-1

35 M. Gersbeck

2 J. Eitschberger

44 L. Gechter

27 N. Kolbe

22 M. Pedersen

30 P. Seguin

8 K. Sessa

19 O. Adewumi

23 J. Thorsteinsson

7 J. Brekalo

18 L. Schuler

Coach · Stefan Leitl

Substitutes

43 · T. Goller

42 · D. Zeefuik

33 · S. Gouram

41 · P. Klemens

47 · S. Telib

21 · B. Mamuzah Lum

9 · G. Nilsson

20 · F. Alfa-Ruprecht

17 · S. Gronning

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

4-2-3-1

1 F. Hellstern

2 L. Reich

22 J. Heuer

34 H. Blank

23 J. Dehm

6 S. Banse

13 P. Will

30 F. Klaus

8 S. Appelkamp

10 O. Pohlmann

42 O. Sillah

Coach · Heiko Vogel

Substitutes

39 · C. Ortag

29 · K. Keresztes

28 · D. Arifi

11 · A. Keller

37 · F. Ademi

45 · O. Balliu

21 · M. Wallentowitz

7 · D. Srbeny

9 · Jordan

Our number · hertha bsc winPublished 11 Oct 12:33

54% The market61%

Us54%

~~Market~~61%

We make Hertha BSC a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hertha bsc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 59% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hertha BSC win	54%	61%	−7
Draw	22%	20%	+2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth win	23%	19%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	63%	71%	−8
Both teams to score	62%	65%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	84%	87%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	41%	51%	−10
Hertha BSC or draw	77%	81%	−5
Hertha BSC clean sheet	29%	–	–
SpVgg Greuther Fürth clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.4 4.5 3.1 1 7.5 10.1 6.0 2.5 2 7.8 9.6 5.9 2.5 3 5.2 6.4 4.0 4 2.6 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hertha BSC down, SpVgg Greuther Fürth across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,600 2. Bundesliga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hertha BSC at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.00 goals for Hertha BSC, 1.24 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 12:07. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~HER 2–1 SPV · SPV 3–3 HER · HER 1–0 SPV · SPV 2–1 HER

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga

HERTHA BSC

WWWWWW1–0 · 4–1 · 5–3 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–1

SPVGG GREUTHER FÜRTH

DLWLDD1–1 · 2–4 · 4–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	6	+10	18
2	1. FC Nürnberg	7	+10	17
3	1. FC Heidenheim	7	+2	14
4	1. FC Magdeburg	7	+5	13
5	VfL Wolfsburg	7	+7	12
6	1. FC Kaiserslautern	7	+2	12
7	Energie Cottbus	7	−1	8
8	VfL Osnabrück	7	−3	8
9	Eintracht Braunschweig	7	0	7
10	FC St. Pauli	6	0	7
11	VfL Bochum	6	−1	7
12	Hannover 96	7	−5	7
13	SV Darmstadt 98	7	−6	7
14	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	6	−2	6
15	Arminia Bielefeld	6	−2	5
16	Dynamo Dresden	7	−6	5
17	Karlsruher SC	6	−6	5
18	Holstein Kiel	7	−4	4