Hertha BSC v Arminia Bielefeld prediction · 2. Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Hertha BSC 1–0 Arminia Bielefeld HERTHA BSC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hertha BSC win~~50%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.383

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.336

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hertha BSC win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hertha BSC was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–24–27
1′KICK-OFF Hertha BSC v Arminia Bielefeld
34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Jonas Thomas Kersken · Arminia Bielefeld
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Joel Felix · Arminia Bielefeld
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Hertha BSC win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
45′HALF-TIME Hertha BSC 0–0 Arminia Bielefeld
46′SECOND HALF Hertha BSC 0–0 Arminia Bielefeld
50′We said Hertha BSC at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–38–24
52′Hertha BSC have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 37–39–24
55′We expected about 3.2 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 36–41–23
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Hertha BSC win 38%)
59′We said Hertha BSC at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–22
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Hertha BSC win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Hertha BSC · On: Julian Eitschberger · Off: Deyovaisio Zeefuik
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Hertha BSC · On: Farid Alfa-Ruprecht · Off: Oluwaseun Adewumi
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Hertha BSC · On: Jan Luca Schuler · Off: Sebastian Gronning
67′We said Hertha BSC at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–52–19
73′We said Hertha BSC at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–16
74′Hertha BSC have had 12 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 23–61–16
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Hertha BSC win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
78′We said Hertha BSC at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Arminia Bielefeld · On: Sam Schreck · Off: Leon Jensen
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Arminia Bielefeld · On: Jannik Rochelt · Off: Marius Worl
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Paul Seguin · Hertha BSC
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Hertha BSC · On: Soufian Gouram · Off: Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson
82′We said Hertha BSC at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–9
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Arminia Bielefeld · On: Henri Koudossou · Off: Monju Thaddäus Momuluh
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Arminia Bielefeld · On: Leon Schneider · Off: Joel Felix
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Hertha BSC win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
86′We published Hertha BSC at 50%. Our model now makes it 94%. 1–0 · 94–6–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Hertha BSC 1–0 Arminia Bielefeld
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Hertha BSC win: 50% at kick-off, 94% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Hertha BSC win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 83%)
87′Hertha BSC ahead on 85′ through Jan Luca Schuler. 1–0. 1–0 · 94–6–0
88′GOAL DISALLOWED · 88' Hertha BSC
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Hertha BSC win: 50% at kick-off, 8% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Hertha BSC win 94%)
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Hertha BSC · On: Selim Telib · Off: Kevin Sessa
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Arminia Bielefeld · On: Tim Handwerker · Off: Joel Grodowski
92′We said Hertha BSC at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
93′We published Hertha BSC at 50%. Our model now makes it 98%. 1–0 · 98–2–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Hertha BSC 1–0 Arminia Bielefeld
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Hertha BSC win: 50% at kick-off, 98% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Hertha BSC win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 95%)
94′Hertha BSC ahead on 90′ through Josip Brekalo. 1–0. 1–0 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Hertha BSC 1–0 Arminia Bielefeld
FTHertha BSC 1–0 Arminia Bielefeld · Hertha BSC win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hertha BSC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hertha BSC 50%, draw 24%, Arminia Bielefeld 27%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Hertha BSC v Arminia BielefeldBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hertha BSC win50%

Draw24%

Arminia Bielefeld win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueOlympiastadion

RefereeCristian Ballweg

Line-ups

Hertha BSC

4-2-3-1

Arminia Bielefeld

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hertha BSC

Arminia Bielefeld

8Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

Last match: 18 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Hertha BSC

4-2-3-1

35 M. Gersbeck

42 D. Zeefuik

44 L. Gechter

27 N. Kolbe

22 M. Pedersen

30 P. Seguin

8 K. Sessa

19 O. Adewumi

23 J. Þorsteinsson

7 J. Brekalo

17 S. Grønning

Coach · S. Leitl

Substitutes

20 · Farid Alfa-Ruprecht

2 · J. Eitschberger

43 · T. Goller

33 · S. Gouram

34 · M. Grothe

41 · P. Klemens

28 · Jelani Isi Ndi

18 · L. Schuler

47 · Selim Telib

Arminia Bielefeld

4-3-3

1 J. Kersken

2 F. Hagmann

5 M. Bauer

3 J. Felix

17 A. Sicker

31 L. Jensen

21 S. Russo

19 M. Großer

14 M. Momuluh

11 J. Grodowski

38 M. Wörl

Coach · Oliver Kirch

Substitutes

27 · Benjamin Bediako Boakye

29 · T. Handwerker

7 · H. Koudossou

6 · M. Mehlem

18 · L. Oppermann

10 · J. Rochelt

23 · L. Schneider

8 · S. Schreck

30 · I. Young

Our number · hertha bsc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 03:57 · locked at kick-off

50% The market53%

Us50%

~~Market~~53%

We make Hertha BSC a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hertha BSC v Arminia Bielefeld~~1.86 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 28 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 22 v 11~~1 v 8

~~The market · Hertha BSC win~~53% · ours 50%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hertha BSC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hertha BSC win	50%	53%	−3
Draw	24%	24%	0
Arminia Bielefeld win	27%	24%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	61%	62%	−1
Both teams to score	62%	63%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	83%	0
Over 3.5 goals	39%	41%	−2
Hertha BSC or draw	73%	76%	−3
Hertha BSC clean sheet	27%	–	–
Arminia Bielefeld clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 4.8 5.0 3.7 1 7.2 10.7 6.7 3.0 2 7.2 9.3 6.1 2.7 3 4.5 5.8 3.8 4 2.1 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hertha BSC down, Arminia Bielefeld across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,614 2. Bundesliga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hertha BSC at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Arminia Bielefeld away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Hertha BSC, 1.32 for Arminia Bielefeld. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 11:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ARM 6–1 HER · HER 1–1 ARM · ARM 1–1 HER · HER 2–0 ARM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 28 Aug

HERTHA BSC

WWWWWD5–3 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

ARMINIA BIELEFELD

LDLDWW1–4 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	8	+11	22
2	1. FC Nürnberg	8	+10	18
3	VfL Wolfsburg	9	+9	16
4	1. FC Kaiserslautern	8	+4	15
5	1. FC Heidenheim	8	0	14
6	1. FC Magdeburg	8	+3	13
7	FC St. Pauli	9	+2	12
8	Arminia Bielefeld	8	0	11
9	Energie Cottbus	8	−1	9
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	8	−1	9
11	Dynamo Dresden	8	−4	8
12	VfL Osnabrück	8	−4	8
13	Karlsruher SC	8	−4	8
14	VfL Bochum	9	−4	8
15	Hannover 96	8	−5	8
16	SV Darmstadt 98	9	−10	8
17	Eintracht Braunschweig	8	−2	7
18	Holstein Kiel	8	−4	5