Hannover 96 v FC St. Pauli prediction · 2. Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Hannover 96 1–1 FC St. Pauli HANNOVER 96 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Hannover 96 win~~39%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.802

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.821

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hannover 96 win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hannover 96 was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–34
1′KICK-OFF Hannover 96 v FC St. Pauli
8′We published Hannover 96 at 39%. Our model now makes it 66%. 1–0 · 66–20–14
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Hannover 96 1–0 FC St. Pauli
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Hannover 96 win: 39% at kick-off, 66% now
9′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Husseyn Chakroun · Hannover 96
11′9′: Husseyn Chakroun on the scoresheet for Hannover 96, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 66–20–14
11′GOAL DISALLOWED · 11' Hannover 96
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Hannover 96 win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
19′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Stefán Teitur Thórdarson · Hannover 96
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Hannover 96 win 33%)
45′SECOND HALF Hannover 96 0–1 FC St. Pauli
46′We said Hannover 96 at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
46′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 9–22–69
46′45′: Abdoulie Ceesay on the scoresheet for FC St. Pauli, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–22–68
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Hannover 96 0–1 FC St. Pauli
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Hannover 96 win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' FC St. Pauli win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
46′HALF-TIME Hannover 96 0–1 FC St. Pauli
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Hannover 96 1–1 FC St. Pauli
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Hannover 96 win: 39% at kick-off, 31% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was FC St. Pauli win 28%)
50′Hannover 96 level it on 48′ through Husseyn Chakroun. 1–1. 1–1 · 30–42–28
57′We said Hannover 96 at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–47–25
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC St. Pauli · On: Martijn Kaars · Off: Youssoupha Niang
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC St. Pauli · On: Samuel Klein · Off: Mathias Rasmussen
64′We said Hannover 96 at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–53–22
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Hannover 96 · On: Benedikt Pichler · Off: Kolja Oudenne
72′We said Hannover 96 at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–63–18
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Hannover 96 win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Hannover 96 · On: Hayate Matsuda · Off: Husseyn Chakroun
78′We said Hannover 96 at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–13
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Hannover 96 · On: Bastian Allgeier · Off: Marcel Hartel
80′13 shots for FC St. Pauli, 8 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 12–76–12
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Hannover 96 win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
FTFULL TIME Hannover 96 1–1 FC St. Pauli
FTHannover 96 1–1 FC St. Pauli · Hannover 96 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hannover 96 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hannover 96 39%, draw 27%, FC St. Pauli 34%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Hannover 96 v FC St. PauliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hannover 96 win39%

Draw27%

FC St. Pauli win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueHeinz-von-Heiden-Arena

RefereeFelix Prigan

Line-ups

Hannover 96

4-4-2

FC St. Pauli

3-4-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hannover 96

FC St. Pauli

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	FC St. Pauli	7	+2	10
14	Hannover 96	7	−5	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Hannover 96

4-4-2

30 L. Weinkauf

5 V. Ghita

3 B. Tomiak

4 J. Hugonet

33 M. Neubauer

14 H. Chakroun

8 W. Taibi

23 S. T. Thordarson

29 K. Oudenne

9 B. Kallman

10 M. Hartel

Coach · Sandro Wagner

Substitutes

1 · P. Loretz

20 · I. Okon

17 · B. Allgeier

13 · F. Roggow

38 · J. Reinhold

27 · H. Matsuda

44 · E. Sahiti

11 · B. Pichler

28 · T. Etcibasi

FC St. Pauli

3-4-1-2

1 B. Voll

4 D. Nemeth

8 E. Smith

21 L. Ritzka

11 A. Pyrka

20 M. Rasmussen

16 J. Fujita

23 L. Oppie

24 C. Metcalfe

7 Y. Niang

9 A. Ceesay

Coach · Marcel Rapp

Substitutes

33 · D. Mitov

25 · A. Dzwigala

15 · T. Ando

10 · B. Hrgota

22 · S. Klein

14 · E. Ahlstrand

19 · M. Kaars

18 · T. Hara

26 · R. Jones

Our number · hannover 96 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market40%

Us39%

~~Market~~40%

We make Hannover 96 a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hannover 96 v FC St. Pauli~~1.38 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 14 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 10~~14 v 7

~~The market · Hannover 96 win~~40% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hannover 96 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hannover 96 win	39%	40%	−1
Draw	27%	26%	+1
FC St. Pauli win	34%	34%	0
Over 2.5 goals	50%	58%	−8
Both teams to score	54%	62%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	75%	80%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	28%	39%	−11
Hannover 96 or draw	66%	66%	0
Hannover 96 clean sheet	28%	–	–
FC St. Pauli clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.6 8.4 5.8 2.5 1 9.1 12.7 7.8 3.4 2 6.6 8.4 5.4 2.3 3 3.1 3.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hannover 96 down, FC St. Pauli across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,605 2. Bundesliga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hannover 96 at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). FC St. Pauli away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Hannover 96, 1.29 for FC St. Pauli. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~HAN 1–2 FCS · FCS 0–0 HAN · FCS 2–0 HAN · HAN 2–2 FCS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 14 Aug

HANNOVER 96

LWDLWL0–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–3

FC ST. PAULI

DLDWDW2–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	8	+11	22
2	1. FC Nürnberg	8	+10	18
3	VfL Wolfsburg	8	+9	15
4	1. FC Kaiserslautern	8	+4	15
5	1. FC Heidenheim	8	0	14
6	1. FC Magdeburg	7	+5	13
7	FC St. Pauli	7	+2	10
8	Energie Cottbus	8	−1	9
9	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	8	−1	9
10	Arminia Bielefeld	7	−1	8
11	VfL Osnabrück	7	−3	8
12	Eintracht Braunschweig	8	−2	7
13	VfL Bochum	8	−4	7
14	Hannover 96	7	−5	7
15	SV Darmstadt 98	7	−6	7
16	Holstein Kiel	8	−4	5
17	Dynamo Dresden	7	−6	5
18	Karlsruher SC	7	−8	5