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FC St. Pauli v Karlsruher SC

FC St. Pauli

2–0Full time

Karlsruher SC

2. Bundesliga · SUN 11 OCT · Millerntor-Stadion

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:05

FC St. Pauli 2–0 Karlsruher SC FC ST. PAULI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC St. Pauli win~~55%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.310

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.303

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC St. Pauli win at 55%.
2′Little has changed for our model: FC St. Pauli 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–23
2′KICK-OFF FC St. Pauli v Karlsruher SC
6′Little has changed for our model: FC St. Pauli 55% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–23
21′We said FC St. Pauli at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–1 · 26–25–49
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' FC St. Pauli 0–1 Karlsruher SC
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' FC St. Pauli win: 55% at kick-off, 26% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Karlsruher SC win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was FC St. Pauli win 26%)
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' FC St. Pauli win: 55% at kick-off, 51% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' FC St. Pauli win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Karlsruher SC win 23%)
22′Karlsruher SC find the net on 21′. 0–0. 0–0 · 51–26–23
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' FC St. Pauli win: 55% at kick-off, 51% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' FC St. Pauli win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Karlsruher SC win 23%)
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' FC St. Pauli win: 55% at kick-off, 26% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Karlsruher SC win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was FC St. Pauli win 26%)
24′Karlsruher SC find the net on 21′. 0–0. 0–0 · 50–27–23
32′We said FC St. Pauli at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' FC St. Pauli 1–0 Karlsruher SC
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' FC St. Pauli win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' FC St. Pauli win: 55% at kick-off, 48% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' FC St. Pauli win: 55% at kick-off, 48% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' FC St. Pauli win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
34′FC St. Pauli ahead on 32′ through Abdoulie Ceesay. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' FC St. Pauli win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' FC St. Pauli win: 55% at kick-off, 48% now
36′FC St. Pauli ahead on 32′ through Abdoulie Ceesay. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
36′We said FC St. Pauli at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
36′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Sandro Tremoulet · Karlsruher SC
39′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–6
45′HALF-TIME FC St. Pauli 1–0 Karlsruher SC
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' FC St. Pauli win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
46′SECOND HALF FC St. Pauli 1–0 Karlsruher SC
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruher SC
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' FC St. Pauli 2–0 Karlsruher SC · Abdoulie Ceesay
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' FC St. Pauli 2–0 Karlsruher SC · Lars Ritzka
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' FC St. Pauli · On: Martijn Kaars · Off: Youssoupha Niang
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Karlsruher SC · On: Kevin Wiethaup · Off: Rafael Pinto Pedrosa
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Karlsruher SC · On: Jason Ponente-Ramirez · Off: Viktor Bergh
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Karlsruher SC · On: Sebastian Jung · Off: Sandro Tremoulet
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Karlsruher SC · On: Lilian Egloff · Off: Louey Ben Farhat
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FC St. Pauli · On: Ricky-Jade Jones · Off: Abdoulie Ceesay
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FC St. Pauli · On: Samuel Klein · Off: Mathias Rasmussen
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Karlsruher SC · On: Tim Civeja · Off: Danyal Hakan Zor
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' FC St. Pauli · On: Adam Dźwigała · Off: Lars Ritzka
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' FC St. Pauli · On: Branimir Hrgota · Off: Connor Metcalfe
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' FC St. Pauli 2–1 Karlsruher SC · Lars Ritzka
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Branimir Hrgota · FC St. Pauli
FTFULL TIME FC St. Pauli 2–0 Karlsruher SC
FTFC St. Pauli 2–0 Karlsruher SC · FC St. Pauli win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

FC St. Pauli win55%

Draw22%

Karlsruher SC win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:30

VenueMillerntor-Stadion

RefereeLukas Benen

Line-ups

FC St. Pauli

4-1-3-2

Karlsruher SC

3-1-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

FC St. Pauli

Karlsruher SC

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	FC St. Pauli	6	0	7
17	Karlsruher SC	6	−6	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC St. Pauli

4-1-3-2

1 B. Voll

11 A. Pyrka

4 D. Nemeth

21 L. Ritzka

23 L. Oppie

8 E. Smith

24 C. Metcalfe

20 M. Rasmussen

16 J. Fujita

7 Y. Niang

9 A. Ceesay

Coach · Marcel Rapp

Substitutes

33 · D. Mitov

25 · A. Dzwigala

10 · B. Hrgota

22 · S. Klein

14 · E. Ahlstrand

17 · S. Banks

19 · M. Kaars

18 · T. Hara

26 · R. Jones

Karlsruher SC

3-1-4-2

1 C. Bernat

28 M. Franke

24 S. Tremoulet

22 C. Kobald

26 D. H. Zor

3 D. Ofli

36 R. Pinto Pedrosa

10 M. Wanitzek

33 V. Bergh

13 S. Fukuda

19 L. Ben Farhat

Coach · Maximilian Senft

Substitutes

30 · R. Himmelmann

2 · S. Jung

15 · P. Scholl

6 · S. Vaananen

25 · L. Egloff

23 · T. Civeja

7 · K. Wiethaup

37 · J. Ponente-Ramirez

11 · N. Eichinger

Our number · fc st. pauli winPublished 11 Oct 12:33

55% The market55%

Us55%

~~Market~~55%

We make FC St. Pauli a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC St. Pauli win	55%	55%	0
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Karlsruher SC win	23%	22%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	62%	63%	−1
Both teams to score	61%	62%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	82%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	40%	42%	−2
FC St. Pauli or draw	77%	78%	−1
FC St. Pauli clean sheet	30%	–	–
Karlsruher SC clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.6 4.7 3.1 1 7.7 10.2 5.9 2.4 2 8.0 9.6 5.8 2.4 3 5.3 6.3 3.8 4 2.6 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC St. Pauli down, Karlsruher SC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,600 2. Bundesliga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC St. Pauli at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Karlsruher SC away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for FC St. Pauli, 1.22 for Karlsruher SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 12:07. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~6 of 6

~~Last meetings~~KAR 2–1 FCS · FCS 2–1 KAR · FCS 1–1 KAR · KAR 4–4 FCS

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga

FC ST. PAULI

DDLDWD1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

KARLSRUHER SC

WDLDLL2–1 · 0–0 · 2–5 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	6	+10	18
2	1. FC Nürnberg	7	+10	17
3	1. FC Heidenheim	7	+2	14
4	1. FC Magdeburg	7	+5	13
5	VfL Wolfsburg	7	+7	12
6	1. FC Kaiserslautern	7	+2	12
7	Energie Cottbus	7	−1	8
8	VfL Osnabrück	7	−3	8
9	Eintracht Braunschweig	7	0	7
10	FC St. Pauli	6	0	7
11	VfL Bochum	6	−1	7
12	Hannover 96	7	−5	7
13	SV Darmstadt 98	7	−6	7
14	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	6	−2	6
15	Arminia Bielefeld	6	−2	5
16	Dynamo Dresden	7	−6	5
17	Karlsruher SC	6	−6	5
18	Holstein Kiel	7	−4	4