Energie Cottbus v VfL Bochum prediction · 2. Bundesliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Energie CottbusDrawVfL Bochum

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Energie Cottbus 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Energie Cottbus are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Energie Cottbus 45%, draw 25%, VfL Bochum 30%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Energie Cottbus v VfL BochumBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Energie Cottbus win45%

Draw25%

VfL Bochum win30%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueLEAG Energie Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Energie Cottbus

VfL Bochum

6Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

Last match: 23 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Energie Cottbus	9	−1	10
13	VfL Bochum	9	−4	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · energie cottbus winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

45% The market31%

Us45%

~~Market~~31%

We make Energie Cottbus a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Energie Cottbus v VfL Bochum~~1.65 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 8~~9 v 13

~~The market · Energie Cottbus win~~31% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Energie Cottbus win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Energie Cottbus win	45%	31%	+14
Draw	25%	25%	0
VfL Bochum win	30%	44%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	57%	65%	−8
Both teams to score	59%	67%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	80%	84%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	35%	45%	−10
Energie Cottbus or draw	70%	56%	+14
Energie Cottbus clean sheet	27%	–	–
VfL Bochum clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 5.8 6.3 4.5 2.0 1 8.0 11.6 7.3 3.2 2 7.0 9.1 6.0 2.6 3 3.8 5.0 3.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Energie Cottbus down, VfL Bochum across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,618 2. Bundesliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.1% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Energie Cottbus at home: 2.00 scored, 1.75 conceded a game (last 4). VfL Bochum away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Energie Cottbus, 1.32 for VfL Bochum. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 5 Sept

ENERGIE COTTBUS

DWDLDD4–4 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

VFL BOCHUM

WDLLLD2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	9	+12	25
2	1. FC Nürnberg	9	+9	18
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	9	+5	18
4	VfL Wolfsburg	9	+9	16
5	1. FC Magdeburg	9	+8	16
6	1. FC Heidenheim	9	0	15
7	FC St. Pauli	9	+2	12
8	Arminia Bielefeld	9	−1	11
9	Energie Cottbus	9	−1	10
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	8	−1	9
11	Dynamo Dresden	8	−4	8
12	VfL Osnabrück	8	−4	8
13	VfL Bochum	9	−4	8
14	Hannover 96	8	−5	8
15	Karlsruher SC	9	−9	8
16	SV Darmstadt 98	9	−10	8
17	Eintracht Braunschweig	8	−2	7
18	Holstein Kiel	8	−4	5