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Energie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg

Energie Cottbus
1–1Full time
1. FC Nürnberg

2. Bundesliga · FRI 16 OCT · Stadion der Freundschaft

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 20:01
Energie Cottbus 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg ENERGIE COTTBUS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Energie Cottbus win42%
The market said26%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.887
The market’s Brier score0.943

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 33 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Energie Cottbus win at 42%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Energie Cottbus was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–23–35
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Energie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg
  4. 34′SUBSTITUTION · 33' 1. FC Nürnberg · On: William Bøving · Off: Mohamed Alì Zoma
  5. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Adam Markhiev · 1. FC Nürnberg
  6. 45′SECOND HALF Energie Cottbus 0–0 1. FC Nürnberg
  7. 46′9 shots for Energie Cottbus, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 35–34–30
  8. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Henry Rorig · Energie Cottbus
  9. 49′HALF-TIME Energie Cottbus 0–0 1. FC Nürnberg
  10. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Energie Cottbus win 33%)
  11. 55′We expected about 3.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 32–40–28
  12. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Energie Cottbus win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
  13. 56′We published Energie Cottbus at 42%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–21–7
  14. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Energie Cottbus 1–0 1. FC Nürnberg
  15. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Energie Cottbus win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
  16. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Energie Cottbus win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 21%)
  17. 57′Energie Cottbus ahead on 56′ through Justin Butler. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–21–7
  18. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Leonardo Bittencourt · Energie Cottbus
  19. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Alexios Kalogeropoulos · 1. FC Nürnberg
  20. 63′We published Energie Cottbus at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
  21. 63′We published Energie Cottbus at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
  22. 63′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 2–0 · 95–5–1
  23. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Energie Cottbus 2–0 1. FC Nürnberg
  24. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Energie Cottbus win: 42% at kick-off, 95% now
  25. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Energie Cottbus · On: fousseny doumbia · Off: Leon Guwara
  26. 65′GOAL DISALLOWED · 65' Energie Cottbus
  27. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Energie Cottbus win: 42% at kick-off, 76% now
  28. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Energie Cottbus · On: Dominik Pelivan · Off: Leonardo Bittencourt
  29. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' 1. FC Nürnberg · On: Rafael Lubach · Off: Rayan Ghrieb
  30. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' 1. FC Nürnberg · On: Styopa Mkrtchyan · Off: Alexios Kalogeropoulos
  31. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Tolcay Cigerci · Energie Cottbus
  32. 72′We published Energie Cottbus at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  33. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Energie Cottbus win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
  34. 79′We published Energie Cottbus at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
  35. 79′We said Energie Cottbus at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–1 · 16–69–15
  36. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Energie Cottbus 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg
  37. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Energie Cottbus win: 42% at kick-off, 16% now
  38. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Energie Cottbus win 16%)
  39. 80′Styopa Mkrtchyan scores for 1. FC Nürnberg on 80′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 15–71–14
  40. 81′We said Energie Cottbus at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–73–13
  41. 81′Styopa Mkrtchyan scores for 1. FC Nürnberg on 79′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 14–73–13
  42. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Energie Cottbus · On: Christian Kinsombi · Off: Henry Rorig
  43. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Energie Cottbus · On: Dmytro Bogdanov · Off: Justin Butler
  44. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Energie Cottbus win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
  45. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Energie Cottbus · On: Tim Campulka · Off: King Samuel Manu
  46. 85′We said Energie Cottbus at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–8
  47. 92′We said Energie Cottbus at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
  48. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Christian Kinsombi · Energie Cottbus
  49. 94′Full time, 1–1. We called Energie Cottbus at 42% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  50. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Energie Cottbus win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
  51. FTFULL TIME Energie Cottbus 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg
  52. FTEnergie Cottbus 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg · Energie Cottbus win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Energie Cottbus are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Energie Cottbus 42%, draw 23%, 1. FC Nürnberg 35%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Energie Cottbus v 1. FC NürnbergBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Energie Cottbus win42%
Draw23%
1. FC Nürnberg win35%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueStadion der Freundschaft

RefereeFelix Bickel

Line-ups

Energie Cottbus

4-2-3-1

1. FC Nürnberg

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Energie Cottbus

1. FC Nürnberg

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
21. FC Nürnberg7+1017
8Energie Cottbus7−18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Energie Cottbus

4-2-3-1

1 M. Lotka

3 H. Rorig

2 K. Manu

21 L. Erlein

25 L. Guwara

32 L. Bittencourt

8 L. Michelbrink

10 T. Cigerci

9 L. Copado

11 M. Hannemann

31 J. Butler

Coach · Claus-Dieter Wollitz

Substitutes

29 · K. Kratzsch

23 · F. Doumbia

16 · R. Malone

4 · T. Campulka

6 · J. Hofmann

5 · D. Pelivan

19 · J. Boziaris

7 · C. Kinsombi

13 · D. Bogdanov

1. FC Nürnberg

4-2-3-1

1 J. Reichert

32 T. Janisch

4 A. Kalogeropoulos

20 F. Otto

41 E. Porstner

6 A. Markhiev

8 J. Fernandez

7 R. Ghrieb

10 J. Justvan

23 M. A. Zoma

19 P. Scobel

Coach · Miroslav Klose

Substitutes

13 · R. Lisewski

21 · G. Masouras

14 · A. Ceresoli

5 · S. Mkrtchyan

18 · R. Lubach

28 · C. Y. Moustfa

35 · M. Kornwachs Barjuan

9 · S. Haugen

11 · W. Boving

Our number · energie cottbus winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
42% The market26%
Us42%
Market26%

We make Energie Cottbus a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Energie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg1.78 – 1.62
Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 15 AugW1 D2 L3 · W4 D2 L0
Table places · points 8 v 178 v 2
The market · Energie Cottbus win26% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
20%25%30%35%40%45% 10 OCT 03:5616 OCT 17:07
Our probability · Energie Cottbus win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 26% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Energie Cottbus win42%26%+16
Draw23%22%+1
1. FC Nürnberg win35%52%−17
Over 2.5 goals66%72%−6
Both teams to score66%70%−4
Over 1.5 goals85%87%−2
Over 3.5 goals44%52%−8
Energie Cottbus or draw65%48%+17
Energie Cottbus clean sheet20%––
1. FC Nürnberg clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%
0123450 3.9 5.1 4.4 2.4 1 5.7 9.9 7.7 4.1 2 5.3 8.4 6.8 3.7 3 3.2 5.0 4.0 2.2 4 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Energie Cottbus down, 1. FC Nürnberg across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 15 Aug

ENERGIE COTTBUS

LLDWDL0–3 · 3–4 · 4–4 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–3

1. FC NÜRNBERG

WWDWWD4–2 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 4–4

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Hertha BSC7+1121
21. FC Nürnberg7+1017
31. FC Heidenheim7+214
41. FC Magdeburg7+513
5VfL Wolfsburg7+712
61. FC Kaiserslautern7+212
7FC St. Pauli7+210
8Energie Cottbus7−18
9Arminia Bielefeld7−18
10VfL Osnabrück7−38
11Eintracht Braunschweig707
12VfL Bochum7−27
13Hannover 967−57
14SV Darmstadt 987−67
15SpVgg Greuther Fürth7−36
16Dynamo Dresden7−65
17Karlsruher SC7−85
18Holstein Kiel7−44

The competition's standings before kick-off.