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Energie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg
Energie Cottbus
1. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga · FRI 16 OCT · Stadion der Freundschaft
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Energie Cottbus win at 42%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Energie Cottbus was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–23–35
- 1′KICK-OFF Energie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg
- 34′SUBSTITUTION · 33' 1. FC Nürnberg · On: William Bøving · Off: Mohamed Alì Zoma
- 35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Adam Markhiev · 1. FC Nürnberg
- 45′SECOND HALF Energie Cottbus 0–0 1. FC Nürnberg
- 46′9 shots for Energie Cottbus, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 35–34–30
- 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Henry Rorig · Energie Cottbus
- 49′HALF-TIME Energie Cottbus 0–0 1. FC Nürnberg
- 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Energie Cottbus win 33%)
- 55′We expected about 3.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 32–40–28
- 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Energie Cottbus win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
- 56′We published Energie Cottbus at 42%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–21–7
- 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Energie Cottbus 1–0 1. FC Nürnberg
- 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Energie Cottbus win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
- 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Energie Cottbus win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 21%)
- 57′Energie Cottbus ahead on 56′ through Justin Butler. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–21–7
- 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Leonardo Bittencourt · Energie Cottbus
- 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Alexios Kalogeropoulos · 1. FC Nürnberg
- 63′We published Energie Cottbus at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
- 63′We published Energie Cottbus at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
- 63′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 2–0 · 95–5–1
- 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Energie Cottbus 2–0 1. FC Nürnberg
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Energie Cottbus win: 42% at kick-off, 95% now
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Energie Cottbus · On: fousseny doumbia · Off: Leon Guwara
- 65′GOAL DISALLOWED · 65' Energie Cottbus
- 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Energie Cottbus win: 42% at kick-off, 76% now
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Energie Cottbus · On: Dominik Pelivan · Off: Leonardo Bittencourt
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' 1. FC Nürnberg · On: Rafael Lubach · Off: Rayan Ghrieb
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' 1. FC Nürnberg · On: Styopa Mkrtchyan · Off: Alexios Kalogeropoulos
- 69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Tolcay Cigerci · Energie Cottbus
- 72′We published Energie Cottbus at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
- 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Energie Cottbus win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
- 79′We published Energie Cottbus at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
- 79′We said Energie Cottbus at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–1 · 16–69–15
- 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Energie Cottbus 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg
- 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Energie Cottbus win: 42% at kick-off, 16% now
- 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Energie Cottbus win 16%)
- 80′Styopa Mkrtchyan scores for 1. FC Nürnberg on 80′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 15–71–14
- 81′We said Energie Cottbus at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–73–13
- 81′Styopa Mkrtchyan scores for 1. FC Nürnberg on 79′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 14–73–13
- 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Energie Cottbus · On: Christian Kinsombi · Off: Henry Rorig
- 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Energie Cottbus · On: Dmytro Bogdanov · Off: Justin Butler
- 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Energie Cottbus win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Energie Cottbus · On: Tim Campulka · Off: King Samuel Manu
- 85′We said Energie Cottbus at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–8
- 92′We said Energie Cottbus at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
- 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Christian Kinsombi · Energie Cottbus
- 94′Full time, 1–1. We called Energie Cottbus at 42% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
- 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Energie Cottbus win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
- FTFULL TIME Energie Cottbus 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg
- FTEnergie Cottbus 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg · Energie Cottbus win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassEnergie Cottbus are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Energie Cottbus 42%, draw 23%, 1. FC Nürnberg 35%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
Energie Cottbus win42%
1. FC Nürnberg win35%Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:30
RoundMatchday 8
VenueStadion der Freundschaft
RefereeFelix Bickel
Match timeline
All events
Energie CottbusMIN
1. FC NürnbergEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Energie Cottbus
4-2-3-1
1. FC Nürnberg
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Energie Cottbus
1. FC Nürnberg
Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Bundesliga
Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Bundesliga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Energie Cottbus
4-2-3-1
1 M. Lotka
3 H. Rorig
2 K. Manu
21 L. Erlein
25 L. Guwara
32 L. Bittencourt
8 L. Michelbrink
10 T. Cigerci
9 L. Copado
11 M. Hannemann
31 J. Butler
Coach · Claus-Dieter Wollitz
Substitutes
29 · K. Kratzsch
23 · F. Doumbia
16 · R. Malone
4 · T. Campulka
6 · J. Hofmann
5 · D. Pelivan
19 · J. Boziaris
7 · C. Kinsombi
13 · D. Bogdanov
1. FC Nürnberg
4-2-3-1
1 J. Reichert
32 T. Janisch
4 A. Kalogeropoulos
20 F. Otto
41 E. Porstner
6 A. Markhiev
8 J. Fernandez
7 R. Ghrieb
10 J. Justvan
23 M. A. Zoma
19 P. Scobel
Coach · Miroslav Klose
Substitutes
13 · R. Lisewski
21 · G. Masouras
14 · A. Ceresoli
5 · S. Mkrtchyan
18 · R. Lubach
28 · C. Y. Moustfa
35 · M. Kornwachs Barjuan
9 · S. Haugen
11 · W. Boving
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Energie Cottbus
4-2-3-1
1 M. Lotka
3 H. Rorig
2 K. Manu
21 L. Erlein
25 L. Guwara
32 L. Bittencourt
8 L. Michelbrink
10 T. Cigerci
9 L. Copado
11 M. Hannemann
31 J. Butler
Coach · Claus-Dieter Wollitz
Substitutes
29 · K. Kratzsch
23 · F. Doumbia
16 · R. Malone
4 · T. Campulka
6 · J. Hofmann
5 · D. Pelivan
19 · J. Boziaris
7 · C. Kinsombi
13 · D. Bogdanov
1. FC Nürnberg
4-2-3-1
1 J. Reichert
32 T. Janisch
4 A. Kalogeropoulos
20 F. Otto
41 E. Porstner
6 A. Markhiev
8 J. Fernandez
7 R. Ghrieb
10 J. Justvan
23 M. A. Zoma
19 P. Scobel
Coach · Miroslav Klose
Substitutes
13 · R. Lisewski
21 · G. Masouras
14 · A. Ceresoli
5 · S. Mkrtchyan
18 · R. Lubach
28 · C. Y. Moustfa
35 · M. Kornwachs Barjuan
9 · S. Haugen
11 · W. Boving
We make Energie Cottbus a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 26% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Energie Cottbus win | 42% | 26% | +16 |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | +1 |
| 1. FC Nürnberg win | 35% | 52% | −17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 72% | −6 |
| Both teams to score | 66% | 70% | −4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | 87% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 52% | −8 |
| Energie Cottbus or draw | 65% | 48% | +17 |
| Energie Cottbus clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
| 1. FC Nürnberg clean sheet | 17% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 15 Aug
ENERGIE COTTBUS
1. FC NÜRNBERG
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 7 | +10 | 17 |
| 3 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 7 | +2 | 14 |
| 4 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 5 | VfL Wolfsburg | 7 | +7 | 12 |
| 6 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Energie Cottbus | 7 | −1 | 8 |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 7 | −1 | 8 |
| 10 | VfL Osnabrück | 7 | −3 | 8 |
| 11 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | VfL Bochum | 7 | −2 | 7 |
| 13 | Hannover 96 | 7 | −5 | 7 |
| 14 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 7 | −6 | 7 |
| 15 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 7 | −3 | 6 |
| 16 | Dynamo Dresden | 7 | −6 | 5 |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC | 7 | −8 | 5 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 7 | −4 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Hertha BSC
1. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Magdeburg
VfL Wolfsburg
1. FC Kaiserslautern
FC St. Pauli
Arminia Bielefeld
VfL Osnabrück
Eintracht Braunschweig
VfL Bochum
Hannover 96
SV Darmstadt 98
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Dynamo Dresden
Karlsruher SC
Holstein Kiel