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Eintracht Braunschweig v Holstein Kiel

Eintracht Braunschweig

1–0Full time

Holstein Kiel

2. Bundesliga · FRI 9 OCT · Eintracht-Stadion

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:01

Eintracht Braunschweig 1–0 Holstein Kiel HOLSTEIN KIEL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Holstein Kiel win~~40%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.661

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.626

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Holstein Kiel win at 40%.
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Holstein Kiel win: 40% at kick-off, 14% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Eintracht Braunschweig win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Holstein Kiel win 14%)
50′🟨 YELLOW · 44' I. Koutsidis · Eintracht Braunschweig
50′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Guillermo Balzi · Holstein Kiel
50′HALF-TIME Eintracht Braunschweig 1–0 Holstein Kiel
50′SECOND HALF Eintracht Braunschweig 1–0 Holstein Kiel
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Eintracht Braunschweig · On: Robin Heusser · Off: Samuele Di Benedetto
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Eintracht Braunschweig · On: Lukas Frenkert · Off: I. Koutsidis Corrected
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Fabio Di Michele Sanchez · Eintracht Braunschweig
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Eintracht Braunschweig · On: Jovan Mijatovic · Off: Jan Urbich
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Eintracht Braunschweig · On: Jovan Mijatovic · Off: Jan Urbich
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Holstein Kiel · On: Giorgi Kvilitaia · Off: Jonas Meffert
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Eintracht Braunschweig · On: Arlet Junior Zé · Off: Aaron Opoku
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen · Holstein Kiel
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Holstein Kiel · On: Leon Parduzi · Off: John Tolkin
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Holstein Kiel · On: Gyan de Regt · Off: Adrian Kapralik
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Holstein Kiel · On: Till Wiese · Off: Ikem Ugoh
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Holstein Kiel · On: Faride·Alidou · Off: Jonas Torrissen Therkelsen
FTFULL TIME Eintracht Braunschweig 1–0 Holstein Kiel
FTEintracht Braunschweig 1–0 Holstein Kiel · Holstein Kiel win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Eintracht Braunschweig win34%

Draw26%

Holstein Kiel win40%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:30

Venue · Eintracht-Stadion

Referee · Eric-Dominic Weisbach

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Eintracht Braunschweig

4-2-3-1

1 R. Hoffmann

8 M. Aydin

21 K. Ehlers

23 I. Koutsidis

22 F. Di Michele Sanchez

6 F. Flick

15 M. Marie

17 A. Opoku

10 S. Di Benedetto

7 Y. Sturm

27 J. Urbich

Coach · Lars Kornetka

Substitutes

32 · B. Uphoff

29 · L. Frenkert

25 · S. Ba

43 · D. Kovacevic

30 · R. Heusser

26 · T. Wagner

24 · S. Sane

11 · J. Mijatovic

19 · Junior Ze

Holstein Kiel

4-1-4-1

1 T. Weiner

32 H. Sekine

13 I. Nekic

5 N. Madsen

47 J. Tolkin

28 J. Meffert

20 A. Kapralik

8 G. Balzi

27 I. Ugoh

10 J. Therkelsen

19 P. Harres

Coach · Tim Walter

Substitutes

41 · L. Rothenhagen

4 · S. Schonlau

3 · N. Takahashi

40 · L. Parduzi

43 · T. Wiese

9 · G. Kvilitaia

17 · F. Alidou

11 · G. de Regt

22 · M. Reimers

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Eintracht Braunschweig

4-2-3-1

1 R. Hoffmann

8 M. Aydin

21 K. Ehlers

23 I. Koutsidis

22 F. Di Michele Sanchez

6 F. Flick

15 M. Marie

17 A. Opoku

10 S. Di Benedetto

7 Y. Sturm

27 J. Urbich

Coach · Lars Kornetka

Substitutes

32 · B. Uphoff

29 · L. Frenkert

25 · S. Ba

43 · D. Kovacevic

30 · R. Heusser

26 · T. Wagner

24 · S. Sane

11 · J. Mijatovic

19 · Junior Ze

Holstein Kiel

4-1-4-1

1 T. Weiner

32 H. Sekine

13 I. Nekic

5 N. Madsen

47 J. Tolkin

28 J. Meffert

20 A. Kapralik

8 G. Balzi

27 I. Ugoh

10 J. Therkelsen

19 P. Harres

Coach · Tim Walter

Substitutes

41 · L. Rothenhagen

4 · S. Schonlau

3 · N. Takahashi

40 · L. Parduzi

43 · T. Wiese

9 · G. Kvilitaia

17 · F. Alidou

11 · G. de Regt

22 · M. Reimers

Our number · holstein kiel winPublished 9 Oct 17:35

40% The market39%

Us40%

~~Market~~39%

We make Holstein Kiel a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · holstein kiel win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Eintracht Braunschweig win	34%	36%	−2
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Holstein Kiel win	40%	39%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	64%	−11
Both teams to score	57%	66%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	77%	83%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	31%	43%	−13
Eintracht Braunschweig or draw	60%	61%	−1
Eintracht Braunschweig clean sheet	23%	–	–
Holstein Kiel clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.7 8.5 6.5 3.2 1 7.8 12.2 8.6 4.2 2 5.5 7.8 5.7 2.8 3 2.4 3.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Eintracht Braunschweig down, Holstein Kiel across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,594 2. Bundesliga matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.8% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Holstein Kiel away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Eintracht Braunschweig, 1.46 for Holstein Kiel. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 17:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~HOL 2–0 EIN · EIN 1–1 HOL · HOL 1–2 EIN · EIN 0–1 HOL

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga

EINTRACHT BRAUNSCHWEIG

WLLLDL6–1 · 0–1 · 3–5 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–1

HOLSTEIN KIEL

DDLDLD2–2 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	6	+10	18
2	1. FC Nürnberg	6	+10	16
3	1. FC Heidenheim	6	+2	13
4	VfL Wolfsburg	6	+7	11
5	1. FC Kaiserslautern	6	+2	11
6	1. FC Magdeburg	6	+2	10
7	Energie Cottbus	6	+1	8
8	FC St. Pauli	6	0	7
9	VfL Bochum	6	−1	7
10	Hannover 96	6	−2	7
11	VfL Osnabrück	6	−3	7
12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	6	−2	6
13	Arminia Bielefeld	6	−2	5
14	Karlsruher SC	6	−6	5
15	Eintracht Braunschweig	6	−1	4
16	Holstein Kiel	6	−3	4
17	Dynamo Dresden	6	−6	4
18	SV Darmstadt 98	6	−8	4