Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Magdeburg prediction · 2. Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23

Dynamo Dresden 2–0 1. FC Magdeburg DYNAMO DRESDEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dynamo Dresden win~~41%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.522

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.585

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dynamo Dresden win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dynamo Dresden was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–24–35
1′KICK-OFF Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Magdeburg
8′We published Dynamo Dresden at 41%. Our model now makes it 66%. 1–0 · 66–18–16
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Dynamo Dresden 1–0 1. FC Magdeburg
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Dynamo Dresden win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
10′Dynamo Dresden ahead on 9′ through Niklas Hauptmann. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–18–16
24′PENALTY · 6' Dynamo Dresden
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 68–20–12
43′We published Dynamo Dresden at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–10
45′SECOND HALF Dynamo Dresden 1–0 1. FC Magdeburg
47′HALF-TIME Dynamo Dresden 1–0 1. FC Magdeburg
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Dynamo Dresden win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
50′We published Dynamo Dresden at 41%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–7–2
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Dynamo Dresden 2–0 1. FC Magdeburg
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Dynamo Dresden win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
52′Simon Straudi scores for Dynamo Dresden on 50′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' 1. FC Magdeburg · On: Alexander Nollenberger · Off: Herbert Bockhorn
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' 1. FC Magdeburg · On: Felipe Chávez · Off: Luka Hyryläinen
62′We published Dynamo Dresden at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Dynamo Dresden · On: Jakob Lemmer · Off: Ben Bobzien
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' 1. FC Magdeburg · On: Magnus Elias Walther Baars · Off: Moritz-Broni Kwarteng
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Dynamo Dresden · On: Ahmet Muhamedbegovic · Off: Nicolai Rapp
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Dynamo Dresden · On: Nils Fröling · Off: Vincent Vermeij
84′We published Dynamo Dresden at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Ahmet Muhamedbegovic · Dynamo Dresden
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Dynamo Dresden · On: Luca Herrmann · Off: Niklas Hauptmann
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Dynamo Dresden · On: Kaan Inanoglu · Off: Patrice Čović
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' 1. FC Magdeburg · On: Roko Simic · Off: Mateusz Zukowski
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' 1. FC Magdeburg · On: Richmond Tachie · Off: Pierre Nadjombe
FTFULL TIME Dynamo Dresden 2–0 1. FC Magdeburg
FTDynamo Dresden 2–0 1. FC Magdeburg · Dynamo Dresden win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dynamo Dresden are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dynamo Dresden 41%, draw 24%, 1. FC Magdeburg 35%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC MagdeburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dynamo Dresden win41%

Draw24%

1. FC Magdeburg win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueRudolf-Harbig Stadion

RefereeRobin Braun

Line-ups

Dynamo Dresden

4-2-3-1

1. FC Magdeburg

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dynamo Dresden

1. FC Magdeburg

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	1. FC Magdeburg	7	+5	13
17	Dynamo Dresden	7	−6	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dynamo Dresden

4-2-3-1

22 L. Grill

32 J. Sterner

6 N. Rapp

42 F. Muller

44 S. Straudi

18 R. Wagner

21 T. Raschl

24 P. Covic

27 N. Hauptmann

20 B. Bobzien

9 V. Vermeij

Coach · Thomas Stamm

Substitutes

1 · T. Schreiber

19 · A. Rossipal

17 · A. Muhamedbegovic

34 · T. Neininger

8 · L. Herrmann

16 · N. Froling

33 · C. Daferner

10 · J. Lemmer

11 · K. Inanoglu

1. FC Magdeburg

4-3-3

1 D. Reimann

7 H. Bockhorn

5 T. Muller

3 A. Garcia MacNulty

28 P. Nadjombe

26 T. Musel

38 L. Hyrylainen

10 M. Kwarteng

8 E. Iyoha

22 M. Zukowski

23 B. Atik

Coach · Petrik Sander

Substitutes

30 · N. Kruth

15 · D. Heber

6 · P. Jaeckel

11 · F. Chavez

33 · L. Mergner

17 · A. Nollenberger

9 · R. Simic

29 · R. Tachie

35 · M. Baars

Our number · dynamo dresden winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market38%

Us41%

~~Market~~38%

We make Dynamo Dresden a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Magdeburg~~1.69 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 15 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 13~~17 v 6

~~The market · Dynamo Dresden win~~38% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dynamo Dresden win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dynamo Dresden win	41%	38%	+3
Draw	24%	26%	−2
1. FC Magdeburg win	35%	36%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	62%	60%	+2
Both teams to score	64%	64%	0
Over 1.5 goals	83%	81%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	40%	40%	0
Dynamo Dresden or draw	65%	64%	+1
Dynamo Dresden clean sheet	22%	–	–
1. FC Magdeburg clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 4.6 5.7 4.7 2.4 1 6.3 10.7 7.8 4.0 2 5.7 8.6 6.5 3.4 3 3.2 4.9 3.7 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dynamo Dresden down, 1. FC Magdeburg across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,609 2. Bundesliga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dynamo Dresden at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Dynamo Dresden, 1.53 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 12:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FCM 1–2 DYN · DYN 1–2 FCM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 15 Aug

DYNAMO DRESDEN

WLLDLD1–0 · 3–5 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

1. FC MAGDEBURG

WWLWDW3–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	8	+11	22
2	1. FC Nürnberg	8	+10	18
3	VfL Wolfsburg	8	+9	15
4	1. FC Kaiserslautern	8	+4	15
5	1. FC Heidenheim	8	0	14
6	1. FC Magdeburg	7	+5	13
7	FC St. Pauli	8	+2	11
8	Energie Cottbus	8	−1	9
9	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	8	−1	9
10	Arminia Bielefeld	7	−1	8
11	VfL Osnabrück	7	−3	8
12	Hannover 96	8	−5	8
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	8	−2	7
14	VfL Bochum	8	−4	7
15	SV Darmstadt 98	7	−6	7
16	Holstein Kiel	8	−4	5
17	Dynamo Dresden	7	−6	5
18	Karlsruher SC	7	−8	5