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Arminia Bielefeld v VfL Osnabrück

Arminia Bielefeld

2–1Full time

VfL Osnabrück

2. Bundesliga · SUN 18 OCT · Schüco-Arena

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23

Arminia Bielefeld 2–1 VfL Osnabrück ARMINIA BIELEFELD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arminia Bielefeld win~~54%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.313

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.363

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arminia Bielefeld win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Arminia Bielefeld 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–23
1′KICK-OFF Arminia Bielefeld v VfL Osnabrück
3′🟨 YELLOW · 2' Robin Fabinski · VfL Osnabrück
16′We said Arminia Bielefeld at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–1 · 28–24–49
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Arminia Bielefeld 0–1 VfL Osnabrück
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Arminia Bielefeld win: 54% at kick-off, 28% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' VfL Osnabrück win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Arminia Bielefeld win 28%)
17′16′: Robin Meißner on the scoresheet for VfL Osnabrück, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 27–24–49
26′We said Arminia Bielefeld at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–25–51
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Arminia Bielefeld win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 VfL Osnabrück
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Arminia Bielefeld win: 54% at kick-off, 49% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Arminia Bielefeld win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was VfL Osnabrück win 23%)
28′Arminia Bielefeld level it on 26′ through Maximilian Bauer. 1–1. 1–1 · 49–28–23
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Benjamin boakye · Arminia Bielefeld
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Arminia Bielefeld win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
45′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–1 · 43–35–22
45′SECOND HALF Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 VfL Osnabrück
47′HALF-TIME Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 VfL Osnabrück
48′We said Arminia Bielefeld at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 1–1 · 42–36–22
54′We said Arminia Bielefeld at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–40–21
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Arminia Bielefeld win 37%)
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Arminia Bielefeld · On: monju thaddaus momuluh · Off: Isaiah Young
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Arminia Bielefeld · On: Jannik Rochelt · Off: Benjamin boakye
63′We said Arminia Bielefeld at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–47–19
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Arminia Bielefeld win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
65′8 shots for Arminia Bielefeld, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 33–49–18
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' VfL Osnabrück · On: Daniel-Kofi Kyereh · Off: Ismail Badjie
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Arminia Bielefeld win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
78′12 shots for Arminia Bielefeld, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 20–68–12
79′We said Arminia Bielefeld at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–70–11
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Arminia Bielefeld · On: Henri Koudossou · Off: Felix Hagmann
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Arminia Bielefeld · On: Joel Felix · Off: Leon Jensen
83′We said Arminia Bielefeld at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–79–8
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Arminia Bielefeld win: 54% at kick-off, 13% now
84′We said Arminia Bielefeld at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–1 · 93–7–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' VfL Osnabrück · On: Luca Raimund · Off: Leon Maximilian Flach
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Arminia Bielefeld 2–1 VfL Osnabrück
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Arminia Bielefeld win: 54% at kick-off, 93% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Arminia Bielefeld win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 7%)
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Arminia Bielefeld win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
87′Jannik Rochelt scores for Arminia Bielefeld on 85′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 95–5–0
87′We said Arminia Bielefeld at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Maximilian Grosser · Arminia Bielefeld
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Arminia Bielefeld · On: Vincent Ocansey · Off: Joel Grodowski
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Stefano Russo · Arminia Bielefeld
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' VfL Osnabrück · On: Bernd Riesselmann · Off: Adrian Beck
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' VfL Osnabrück · On: Leonhard Luis Munst · Off: Jonathan Gómez
91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' VfL Osnabrück · On: Theo Janotta · Off: Jannik Müller
96′2–1 at the end. Our 54% on Arminia Bielefeld comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Arminia Bielefeld 2–1 VfL Osnabrück
FTArminia Bielefeld 2–1 VfL Osnabrück · Arminia Bielefeld win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arminia Bielefeld are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arminia Bielefeld 54%, draw 23%, VfL Osnabrück 23%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Arminia Bielefeld v VfL OsnabrückBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Arminia Bielefeld win54%

Draw23%

VfL Osnabrück win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueSchüco-Arena

RefereeMichael Bacher

Line-ups

Arminia Bielefeld

4-1-4-1

VfL Osnabrück

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arminia Bielefeld

VfL Osnabrück

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Arminia Bielefeld	7	−1	8
11	VfL Osnabrück	7	−3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Arminia Bielefeld

4-1-4-1

1 J. Kersken

2 F. Hagmann

5 M. Bauer

19 M. Grosser

17 A. Sicker

21 S. Russo

27 B. Boakye

31 L. Jensen

38 M. Worl

30 I. Young

11 J. Grodowski

Coach · Oliver Kirch

Substitutes

18 · L. Oppermann

3 · J. Felix

29 · T. Handwerker

7 · H. Koudossou

8 · S. Schreck

6 · M. Mehlem

39 · V. Ocansey

10 · J. Rochelt

14 · M. Momuluh

VfL Osnabrück

3-4-2-1

32 J. Krumrey

27 R. Fabinski

24 J. Muller

25 N. Wiemann

31 P. Kammerbauer

18 L. Flach

15 B. Jacobsen

42 Jogo

10 I. Badjie

21 A. Beck

11 R. Meissner

Coach · Timo Schultz

Substitutes

1 · N. Sauter

20 · T. Janotta

4 · J. Abu Hanna

28 · K. Faber

26 · F. Wagner

8 · L. Munst

7 · D. Kyereh

17 · L. Raimund

22 · B. Riesselmann

Our number · arminia bielefeld winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market51%

Us54%

~~Market~~51%

We make Arminia Bielefeld a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arminia Bielefeld v VfL Osnabrück~~1.98 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 15 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 8~~10 v 11

~~The market · Arminia Bielefeld win~~51% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Arminia Bielefeld win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arminia Bielefeld win	54%	51%	+3
Draw	23%	25%	−2
VfL Osnabrück win	23%	24%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	62%	57%	+5
Both teams to score	61%	59%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	83%	79%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	40%	37%	+3
Arminia Bielefeld or draw	77%	76%	+1
Arminia Bielefeld clean sheet	30%	–	–
VfL Osnabrück clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.7 4.6 3.1 1 7.7 10.2 6.0 2.5 2 7.9 9.5 5.8 2.4 3 5.2 6.3 3.8 4 2.6 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arminia Bielefeld down, VfL Osnabrück across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,609 2. Bundesliga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arminia Bielefeld at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). VfL Osnabrück away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Arminia Bielefeld, 1.22 for VfL Osnabrück. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 12:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VFL 0–1 ARM · ARM 3–1 VFL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 15 Aug

ARMINIA BIELEFELD

WLDLDW3–0 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0

VFL OSNABRÜCK

LWWLDD0–3 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	8	+11	22
2	1. FC Nürnberg	8	+10	18
3	VfL Wolfsburg	8	+9	15
4	1. FC Kaiserslautern	8	+4	15
5	1. FC Heidenheim	8	0	14
6	1. FC Magdeburg	7	+5	13
7	FC St. Pauli	8	+2	11
8	Energie Cottbus	8	−1	9
9	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	8	−1	9
10	Arminia Bielefeld	7	−1	8
11	VfL Osnabrück	7	−3	8
12	Hannover 96	8	−5	8
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	8	−2	7
14	VfL Bochum	8	−4	7
15	SV Darmstadt 98	7	−6	7
16	Holstein Kiel	8	−4	5
17	Dynamo Dresden	7	−6	5
18	Karlsruher SC	7	−8	5